MLB HR betting is all about spotting value, and Nationals outfielder James Wood has been one of the best options early in the 2025 season for MLB HR picks. A former top-20 prospect, Wood was projected to supply significant power at 6-foot-7 and 234 pounds, but he seemingly lulled oddsmakers to sleep with nine home runs over 79 games in his rookie season. However, he’s managed to take a major step forward as a slugger this season, smashing 18 home runs over his first 72 games after going yard on Monday night against the Rockies, making him a coveted option in MLB home run picks on the Tuesday MLB schedule.
Wood and the Nationals will take on the Rockies again on Tuesday, and he’ll have a juicy matchup against Colorado righty Antonio Senzatela (7.23 ERA), yet he’s still fetching +440 in the latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel. He’s one of the best values in our MLB HR parlay picks for Tuesday, and you can potentially make a payoff even sweeter with the latest FanDuel promo code. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 37.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 70 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and you can view Tuesday MLB props here.
Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, June 17:
James Wood, Nationals (+440)
With four multi-hit contests in his last six games, Wood is now slashing .284/.378/.550 on the season and his peripherals paint a pretty clear picture that this productivity isn’t a fluke. His bat speed (76.0 mph), average exit velocity (93.9 mph), hard-hit contact rate (56.8%) and barrel rate (17.9%) are all 96th percentile or better among MLB hitters.
“Wood has a .957 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, and he has a 1.110 OPS in games at night compared to a .701 OPS in day games,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +375 for Wood to hit a HR.” FanDuel is offering the best price here with the consensus line hovering closer to +400.
Isaac Paredes, Astros (+450)
The 26-year-old was an all-star for the first time last season and has hit 80 home runs over the last three seasons. He’s already up to 15 homers in 2025 and 11 of those have come since the start of May. He’s by far the biggest power threat in Houston’s lineup so far this season and he has a strong matchup on Tuesday. DraftKings is offering the best price on this MLB HR prop and you can also get $300 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins with the latest DraftKings promo code.
“Paredes is off to a slow start against LHPs- just 4-26 but two of those four hits have been HRs. Paredes hit nearly .300 against LHPs last season, so we expect some positive regression when facing lefties,” Fetner said. “JP Sears has already allowed 15 HRs this season and 13 of the 15 have come against right-handed bats. In five home starts this season, Sears has given up nine HRs in just 24 innings.”
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+340)
One of the game’s most exciting talents, Henderson hasn’t been as productive in 2025 as he was over his first two full seasons. However, his profile is screaming for a power surge at some point in the near future. His 92.6 mph average exit velocity, 50.8% hard-hit contact rate and 75.5 mph average bat speed are all 87th percentile or better among MLB hitters. He just needs to dial in a few variables to start driving the ball more regularly after hitting 65 home runs the last two years.
“This line is as low as +220 on DraftKings, so it’s not just our model that loves Henderson today,” Fetner noted. “Littell has given up seven HRs over his last three starts and has to deal with playing in very hitter friendly conditions in Tampa today.” The model sets the line at +320 for Henderson to homer and you can get +340 at FanDuel for our MLB home run parlay.
More MLB picks for Tuesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 163-83 roll (+2366.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bob Konarski is also 21-14-2 (+598) over his last 37 MLB picks, and you can catch all his latest picks here.
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