Jalen Williams couldn’t have picked a better night for a near career-best performance. The 24-year-old Thunder forward scored 40 points for just the second time in his three-year NBA career to lead Oklahoma City to a 120-109 Game 5 victory. The Thunder are now one win away from their first NBA Championship in Oklahoma City and the franchise’s first title since 1979 in Seattle with Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals set for Thursday at Indiana’s Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 8:30 p.m. ET. Williams’ stock has never been higher coming off his 40-point performance for his third straight game with at least 25 points. However, the model views his total points over/under jump as an overreaction to that short sample size, and has Williams’ Under 23.5 total points as one of its best bets for Thursday NBA player props on betting sites.
Pacers guard T.J. McConnell provided a spark off the bench in Game 5, finishing with 18 points, four rebounds, four assists and two steals. McConnell’s minutes could increase on Thursday with Tyrese Haliburton dealing with a calf strain. According to the latest Thunder vs. Pacers odds, McConnell’s over/under for total points scored is 10.5. Haliburton said postgame, “If I can walk, then I want to play,” but his injury will be one to monitor when making Thursday NBA prop bets for online sports betting for Pacers vs. Thunder NBA player props bets and same-game parlay picks. For now, Williams Under 23.5 points in an NBA prop can be played utilizing a DraftKings promo code for new users. Just click the “CLAIM BONUS” button below:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 6 NBA props (odds subject to change):
- T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 assists (-106)
- Jalen Williams Under 23.5 points (-120)
- Lu Dort Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 assists (-106)
McConnell could be in line for an increased role in Game 6 with Tyrese Haliburton reportedly dealing with a strained right calf and undergoing an MRI on Tuesday. Haliburton still played 34 minutes on Monday after going into the locker room but returning in the first half after suffering the calf injury. He did struggle though, finishing with four points, six rebounds and seven assists. Although Haliburton said postgame, “If I can walk, I want to play,” it may not be as simple as that for the Pacers star point guard.
McConnell is averaging 4.2 assists this series, despite playing just 18 minutes per game. He’s gone Over this total in two of five games this series and has four assists in two games to finish just Under this number. Even if Haliburton convinces the team he can play, his Game 5 performance indicates he could struggle again and the Pacers may decide in-game that they are better off with McConnell controlling the offense. Whether Haliburton is active or not, the model projects value on McConnell Over 4.5 assists. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering this at -106 odds while other sportsbooks have his Over at -115 odds or greater, and that number could rise if another bad report comes out around Haliburton. Play with a FanDuel promo code, and new users can earn $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Jalen Williams Under 23.5 points (-120)
There is no denying how great Williams has played over the last three games of the 2025 NBA Finals, as he’s turning himself into a household name among NBA fans as a top No. 2 scoring option alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Although he’s scored more than 25 points in three straight games, Williams went Under this scoring total in five of the seven previous games during the NBA Finals and Western Conference Finals. He averaged 21.6 points per game during the regular season, so the model still doesn’t believe his 25+ point performance should be the expectation entering Game 6.
The model projects Williams for 20.6 points on Thursday. The Thunder also aren’t in a must-win mode, as Monday felt like in his 40-point outburst, so if Oklahoma City falls behind early, the Thunder could focus more on Game 7 than pushing their key players in Game 6. BetMGM is offering Williams Under 23.5 points at -120 odds, while other betting apps have juiced the odds even more, and a BetMGM bonus code gives new users up to $1,500 back if their first bet loses.
Lu Dort Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)
Dort had nine points, eight rebounds and three assists to easily go Over this number in Game 5, and he’s gone Over this total in two of his last three games and three of the first five games of the 2025 NBA Finals. The 26-year-old Thunder guard has gone Over this total in 32 of 40 games (80%) of contests he’s played at least 30 minutes and he’s played at least 30 minutes in four of five games this series, including each of the last three. He’s gone Over this number in three of four games he’s played at least 30 minutes this series. Oh also notes Dort is averaging an 18.4 PRA total over his last nine games against the Pacers, going Over 12.5 in seven of those contests.
“The Thunder need his defense vs. the Pacers, which leads to his solid rebounding and assist numbers in these matchups,” Oh said. “He is also shooting his threes with confidence. In the past, he would be gun-shy if he missed his first few threes, but after he basically won a game vs. Denver with clutch threes, he shoots that moon ball with confidence all game long, resulting in 14 for 24 shooting in the Finals.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at -125, and you can use the latest FanDuel promo code to get the most of your wager.
Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Thursday in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Thursday’s top NBA picks from expert Jason La Canfora, who’s on a sizzling 115-83-1 (+2257.5) roll over his last 199 NBA picks. He already has a pick locked in for Game 6. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Game 6, all from an expert who’s up over 22 units.
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