Reigning World Series champions Los Angeles Dodgers are seeking their sixth consecutive victory and a four-game sweep when they host their National League West rivals San Diego Padres Thursday in the series finale. Los Angeles won the final two contests of its three-game set with the San Francisco Giants and took the first three games of this showdown to improve to 5-1 on its 10-game homestand. The first-place Dodgers have a 4 1/2-game lead over the Giants in the division and are six games ahead of the Padres.
Los Angeles, which squandered a two-run lead in the ninth inning Wednesday before Will Smith belted a pinch-hit solo homer with one out in the bottom of the frame to give the team a 4-3 walkoff victory, sends Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-5, 2.64 ERA) to the mound in the final game of the series. The 26-year-old Japanese right-hander, who was winless in his first two career starts against San Diego last season, has gone 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in three turns this month.
The Padres, who have lost six of their last seven contests, counter with rookie righty Ryan Bergert (1-0, 2.33). The 25-year-old will be making his fourth straight start after beginning his major-league career with four relief appearances.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Yamamoto (Over +102, Under -130) at 5.5 and Bergert (Over -102, Under -128) at 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Bergert Over 3.5 as a 5-star play on its five-star scale and Yamamoto Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.
In addition to Bergert, the model has found good value on Thursday’s 16-game schedule, as there is another pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at five stars and one at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Clay Holmes Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Braves (7:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.3 strikeouts
With the Mets clinging to a one-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East thanks to their current five-game losing streak, they are hoping Holmes can produce another solid start and collect some strikeouts along the way. The 32-year-old right-hander, who hadn’t started since 2018 with the Pittsburgh Pirates before joining New York’s rotation this year, has allowed more than two runs in only five of his 14 turns overall and one of his last five. Holmes went Over this number in four consecutive outings in April but has done so just once in his last four starts. However, the model sees him recording more than five strikeouts as the Mets look to salvage the finale of their three-game series against the Braves.
Jacob Lopez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115) vs. Astros (10:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.9 strikeouts
Lopez will be making his sixth start this season and the eighth of his MLB career. In his last two turns, the 27-year-old left-hander has worked 10 innings without allowing an earned run, racking up 14 strikeouts along the way. Lopez set a career high with nine strikeouts in a 4 1/3-inning relief appearance against the Minnesota Twins earlier this month and matched it over six frames in a start against the Kansas City Royals last Saturday. That marked the third time he struck out at least five batters in his last four turns and fourth time in five overall appearances.
Ryan Bergert Over 3.5 strikeouts (-102) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts
Bergert recorded only two strikeouts over five innings against San Francisco in his first career start on June 3 but doubled that amount across 5 1/3 frames versus the Milwaukee Brewers in his next outing. He continued that trend in his last turn, registering eight strikeouts over five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks this past Saturday. Despite winning the first three games of the series, the Dodgers struck out five or more times in each contest, and the model sees Bergert playing a large role in making it four in a row.
This news was originally published on this post .
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