One of the first people I ever interviewed at CBS Sports over 15 years ago was Hall of Famer Jerry Rice about third-year receivers. We discussed the theory that receivers often have a breakout season in Year 3, which has been beneficial to Fantasy managers throughout history. And Rice scored a career-best 22 touchdowns in his third season in the NFL with San Francisco in 1987 — in just 12 games.
Rice said his third year in the NFL is when he finally “felt comfortable.” Along with his 22 touchdowns, he also added 65 catches for 1,078 yards, and he had clearly established himself as a superstar.
“You start feeling like you belong,” Rice said. “The first year, you’re like a deer in headlights. You’re trying to get used to playing with all those great players. The second year, you feel more at home, but you’re still making adjustments. The third year, for me, I finally knew what to do.”
Cris Carter, another Hall of Fame receiver, had the first of his six seasons with double digits in touchdowns in his third year, scoring 11 in 1989 with Philadelphia. Like Rice, he also told me once upon a time that Year 3 is important for wide receivers in their development.
“Wide receiver is a skill,” Carter said. “It takes so much time, and there are so many things you have to learn. It takes three to five years to understand the position.
“Now, more people are throwing the ball and more colleges are throwing the ball so kids are coming into the league more ready to have breakout years. … But there’s still a learning curve. There are so many things you have to learn.”
But not all legendary receivers believe in the third-year theory. Steve Smith, who had a breakout season in his third year in Carolina in 2003 with 88 catches for 1,110 yards and seven touchdowns, said a wide receiver can have a breakout campaign in Year 1 or Year 2.
“People are looking for a reason or looking to cling on to something,” Smith once told me. “I think that’s a myth. If you have a good player and a baller there, that’s going to happen, no matter what year it is.”
The reason we like to discuss third-year receivers is this is the season when things start to click for players at the position. What guys like Rice and Carter told me is receivers have to learn how to hone their craft, develop a rapport with their quarterback and also understand defenses better.
Now, it’s not always perfect, and guys sometimes have their best season in Year 1 or Year 2. Because of how college offenses are operating these days, many receivers come into the NFL more prepared than ever before. Their maturation process is accelerated, and the learning curve isn’t as steep.
We have seen plenty of examples of receivers coming into the NFL and being dominant right away, including 2024. Malik Nabers (18.2 PPR points per game), Brian Thomas Jr. (16.7) and Ladd McConkey (15.1) looked comfortable as rookies, and there are countless other examples over the years.
But historically, some of the best receivers ever have had a breakout campaign in their third season in the NFL, including CeeDee Lamb, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Terrell Owens, Keyshawn Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Rice, Carter and Smith, among others.
Drake London joined that group last year when he had 100 catches for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns on 158 targets for 16.7 PPR points per game, easily the best stats of his career. And Garrett Wilson (14.8 PPR points), Jameson Williams (14.2), Khalil Shakir (12.2) and Wan’Dale Robinson (10.8) all set career highs in Year 3 in 2024, although none of them should be considered breakouts.
So who will be the third-year breakouts in 2025? This is a fascinating class to dive into, especially since Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rashee Rice have all been dominant at times. For example, it will be difficult for Nacua to improve his production from the first two years of his career when he averaged 17.6 PPR points as a rookie in 2023 and 18.8 PPR points in 2024 — but we can hope.
Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and Jayden Reed can also be third-year breakouts, and there is sleeper appeal with guys like Josh Downs, Cedric Tillman, Marvin Mims and Demario Douglas, among others. The only downside for this class is Tank Dell (knee), who showed flashes of brilliance during the first two years of his career, and may not play in 2025 due to a likely lengthy recovery from the injury he sustained in Week 16 last season.
Let’s break down the third-year receivers for 2025. I’m excited to draft several of them on my Fantasy teams this season.
The Stars
These are guys you’re drafting in the first four rounds in all leagues.
Puka Nacua
2023 stats: 105 catches, 1,486 yards, six touchdowns, 160 targets
2024 stats: 79 catches, 990 yards, three touchdowns, 106 targets (11 games)
2025 SportsLine Projections: 111 catches, 1,459 yards, six touchdowns, 160 targets
When you should draft him: Round 1
Nacua has been a stud in his first two seasons, so a breakout campaign in Year 3 is probably unlikely. That said, his PPR points per game did increase from Year 1 to Year 2, and he should be the go-to guy for Matthew Stafford with Cooper Kupp gone, even with the addition of Davante Adams. If Nacua could find a way to score more touchdowns then he could challenge to be the No. 1 Fantasy receiver this season, and he’s worth drafting as high as WR4 after Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb come off the board.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2023 stats: 63 catches, 628 yards, four touchdowns, 93 targets
2024 stats: 100 catches, 1,130 yards, six touchdowns, 137 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 99 catches, 1,104 yards, seven touchdowns, 136 targets
When you should draft him: Round 3
There are several changes this season in Seattle, including a new offensive coordinator (Klint Kubiak), new quarterback (Sam Darnold) and a change in the receiving corps (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are gone and Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are in). But Smith-Njigba should be the focal point of the passing game, and his numbers popped when Metcalf missed two games in 2024 due to injury. In those two outings, Smith-Njigba had 13 catches for 249 yards and two touchdowns on 20 targets. Including those two games, Smith-Njigba scored at least 18.3 PPR points in six of his final 10 contests. I’m hopeful that Darnold will lean on Smith-Njigba, and he’s worth drafting as a high-end No. 2 receiver in all leagues.
Rashee Rice
2023 stats: 79 catches, 938 yards, seven touchdowns, 102 targets
2024 stats: 24 catches, 288 yards, two touchdowns, 29 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 96 catches, 1,127 yards, nine touchdowns, 120 targets
When you should draft him: Round 3
It appears like Rice is fully recovered from the knee injury he suffered in Week 4 last season, and hopefully he can pick up where he left off in 2024. In his first three games, Rice scored at least 17.3 PPR points in each outing, and he averaged eight catches and 96 yards over that span. Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and Travis Kelce will take targets from Rice, but he could be the No. 1 receiving threat for Patrick Mahomes this season. Going back to Week 12 last year, Rice has scored at least 17.3 PPR points in eight of his past 10 games in the regular season, and Rice is worth drafting toward the middle to the end of Round 3.
Mid-Round Targets
These are guys you’re targeting after Round 5 who still have breakout potential.
Zay Flowers
2023 stats: 77 catches, 858 yards, five touchdowns, 108 targets
2024 stats: 74 catches, 1,059 yards, four touchdowns, 116 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 71 catches, 1,026 yards, six touchdowns, 109 targets
When you should draft him: Round 6
I find it difficult to predict Flowers having a third-year breakout with the Ravens, and I will only draft him as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. Baltimore’s offense, barring a dramatic change, isn’t going to feature Flowers enough for him to have a huge jump in his stats. While Flowers is the No. 1 receiver, Lamar Jackson will spread the ball around to Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins, who signed this offseason. And let’s not forget about Derrick Henry. If Flowers could get around 130 targets then he might take a leap with his production, but you should plan to draft him in Round 6 or 7 in the majority of leagues.
Jordan Addison
2023 stats: 70 catches, 911 yards, 10 touchdowns, 107 targets
2024 stats: 63 catches, 875 yards, nine touchdowns, 99 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 67 catches, 956 yards, nine touchdowns, 108 targets
When you should draft him: Round 6
Addison has a jury trial set for July 15 for the DUI citation he received last year. He could face discipline from the NFL if he’s found guilty, which could result in a three-game suspension. For now, Addison is worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Round 6 or 7 in the majority of leagues, but his value will decline if he’s guaranteed to miss any time. He could still have a quality season, and he averaged at least 13.0 PPR points in each of his first two years in the NFL, with 20 total touchdowns over that span. We’ll see how Addison does with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and Addison has to share targets with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson. But Minnesota’s offense should continue to allow Addison to flourish, and his stats could increase if he’s not going to miss significant time due to a suspension.
Jayden Reed
2023 stats: 64 catches, 793 yards, eight touchdowns, 94 targets
2024 stats: 55 catches, 857 yards, six touchdowns, 75 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 52 catches, 805 yards, six touchdowns, 71 targets
When you should draft him: Round 9
I’m curious to see who will be the best Packers receiver this season, and I still favor Reed ahead of first-round rookie Matthew Golden heading into training camp. That could change, but I don’t want to overlook what Reed did as a rookie in 2023 when Green Bay had a better passing game. He averaged 13.6 PPR points per game, and I hope he can get back to that level of production — if not more. He’ll need more than the 75 targets he got in 2024 (and probably more than the 94 he got in 2023), but there’s still plenty of potential for Reed to be a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues. You might be able to draft Reed in the double digit rounds, but I would look for him in Round 9. And I’ll love the value for Reed if he’s getting drafted significantly later than Golden in August.
Other Breakout WRs To Target
These are guys you’re targeting after Round 10 who still have breakout potential.
Josh Downs
2023 stats: 68 catches, 771 yards, two touchdowns, 98 targets
2024 stats: 72 catches, 803 yards, five touchdowns, 107 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 60 catches, 708 yards, five touchdowns, 89 targets
When you should draft him: Round 11
The quarterback decision in Indianapolis will likely determine how you view Downs this year. If Daniel Jones opens the season as the starter for the Colts — which is likely since Anthony Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury coming into training camp — then Downs’ value will rise. But it will be hard to expect a third-year breakout for Downs if Richardson starts the majority of games. In 2024, Downs had seven games with at least 15.1 PPR points, but four of them came with Joe Flacco under center. Downs struggled with Richardson, and the same could happen this year. Along with the quarterback concern, Indianapolis added another talented weapon in first-round tight end Tyler Warren, who could take away targets from Downs, along with Michael Pittman. I like Downs as a solid reserve receiver, and there’s upside for more if Jones is the starter. But don’t reach for him on Draft Day if Richardson is expected to start in Week 1.
Cedric Tillman
2023 stats: 21 catches, 224 yards, no touchdowns, 44 targets
2024 stats: 29 catches, 339 yards, three touchdowns, 49 targets (11 games)
2025 SportsLine Projections: 50 catches, 556 yards, five touchdowns, 87 targets
When you should draft him: Round 11
Tillman has the chance for a big season in Year 3, and he’s one of my favorite sleepers in 2025. When Amari Cooper was traded from Cleveland to Buffalo prior to Week 7 in 2024, Tillman had a brief period where he looked like a star. It also coincided with Jameis Winston taking over for an injured Deshaun Watson (Achilles), but Tillman’s first three games after Cooper was gone resulted in 21 catches for 255 yards and three touchdowns on 32 targets, and he scored at least 18.1 PPR points in each outing. He tailed off in two games after that, and then he missed the final six outings of the season with a concussion. But he should be the starter opposite Jerry Jeudy, and Tillman should be among the top three options in the passing game with Jeudy and David Njoku. A big plus for Tillman will be if Joe Flacco starts the majority of games for the Browns, but he should be a great value pick no matter who plays quarterback in Cleveland. Tillman is a solid reserve receiver with top-30 upside.
Marvin Mims
2023 stats: 22 catches, 377 yards, one touchdown, 33 targets
2024 stats: 39 catches, 503 yards, six touchdowns, 52 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 44 catches, 566 yards, six touchdowns, 61 targets
When you should draft him: Round 13
Mims closed last season on a high note with at least 19.9 PPR points in three of his final five games. He only had one outing with more than five targets over that span, but Mims finally started to impress Sean Payton, which will hopefully carry over to 2025. Now, aside from Courtland Sutton, Denver added Evan Engram and rookie Pat Bryant this offseason, and Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin could also command targets. But it’s worth taking a flier on Mims with a late-round pick because of his big-play ability, and hopefully Year 3 will bring out the best of Mims for the Broncos and Fantasy managers.
Demario Douglas
2023 stats: 49 catches, 561 yards, no touchdowns, 79 targets
2024 stats: 66 catches, 621 yards, three touchdowns, 87 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 66 catches, 643 yards, three touchdowns, 89 targets
When you should draft him: Round 14
The Patriots offense will look different in 2025 with Josh McDaniels as the new play caller, and New England added Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and rookie Kyle Williams this offseason. We’ll see where Douglas fits in, but he could be the slot receiver, which is a great role in McDaniels’ system. Drake Maye should continue to improve in his sophomore campaign, and hopefully the same goes for Douglas in Year 3. He’ll likely be better in PPR than any other format, but he’s a great late-round flier if he comes out of training camp as one of the top three receivers for McDaniels.
Michael Wilson
2023 stats: 38 catches, 565 yards, three touchdowns, 58 targets
2024 stats: 47 catches, 548 yards, four touchdowns, 71 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 48 catches, 604 yards, six touchdowns, 73 targets
When you should draft him: Round 14
It’s hard to expect a breakout season for Wilson since he shares the field with Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., and Kyler Murray has yet to show he can support two standout receiving options on a consistent basis, let alone three. That said, Wilson can still have plenty of positive moments, and he could emerge as a useful No. 3 Fantasy receiver in deeper leagues. He scored at least 12.8 PPR points in three of his first eight games in 2024, and hopefully he can do that more often in Year 3. He’s a great late-round flier in the majority of leagues.
Quentin Johnston
2023 stats: 38 catches, 431 yards, two touchdowns, 67 targets
2024 stats: 55 catches, 711 yards, eight touchdowns, 91 targets
2025 SportsLine Projections: 58 catches, 759 yards, nine touchdowns, 102 targets
When you should draft him: Round 15
Johnston is among the biggest busts in this draft class at any position, not just receiver. He was the No. 21 overall selection in Round 1, and he has struggled so far in Fantasy and reality. It’s hard to envision a third-year breakout since the Chargers added rookie Tre Harris and brought back Mike Williams this offseason, but Johnston still has plenty of upside, which we saw at the end of 2024 and will hopefully carry over to Year 3. He scored at least 15.5 PPR points in three of his final five games, and he had 45 targets over that span. We’ll see if he gets that much attention with a crowded receiving corps, which includes Ladd McConkey. If that happens then Johnston will be a tremendous value pick with a late-round flier, and hopefully he can have a breakout campaign in Year 3.
Others WRs note:
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