NBA Finals: Recent Game 7 trends suggest Thunder and Pacers are in for close, defensive battle

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The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers will square off for one last time on Sunday in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Their thrilling series has far exceeded expectations, and just seven total points separate the two teams through the first six games. 

This is the first time the Finals have gone the distance since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers completed their historic 3-1 comeback to defeat the 73-win Golden State Warriors. The Thunder won 68 games this season, which is the most wins by any team since that Warriors group. Will they meet the same fate?

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Ahead of what should be a fascinating winner-take-all affair, here’s a look at some NBA Finals Game 7 trends, and what they may tell us about Sunday. 

Expect a low-scoring affair …

The Thunder and Pacers were two of the best offensive teams in the league this season, and have been racking up points this series. Both teams have crossed the 100-point threshold in five of the six games, and the only time a team failed to reach that mark was the Thunder in Game 6, when they put up 91 points. 

History says that the trend will not continue. No team has reached 100 points in a Finals Game 7 since 1988, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Detroit Pistons, 108-105. On the last five occasions that the Finals went the distance, the most points any team has scored is 95 by the Miami Heat in 2013. 

In the 19 previous Finals Game 7s, both teams have scored 100 points six times, but only four times in regulation. And of those six previous instances, four of them came in the 1950s or 1960s, when the league’s pace was out of control. 

“I’m not pointing out anything that’s not obvious. Our defense has been more consistent in these playoffs, especially than our offense has,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said on Saturday. 

“I think generally, offense is harder in the playoffs for everybody. The same is true for Indiana in this series. Their offense is not where it was in the regular season or even earlier in the playoffs. I think it’s just harder to score when you play a team over and over and over again.”

… and a close one

This series has been extremely competitive from Game 1, when Tyrese Haliburton stunned the Thunder with his game-winning jumper in the final second. Three of the first six games have reached crunch time, which is defined as the margin being within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining. 

There’s a good chance we’ll have another close one on Sunday. The average margin of victory in Game 7 of the Finals is just 6.9 points, which is the smallest of all Finals games. There hasn’t been a Finals Game 7 decided by double digits since 1978, when the Washington Bullets beat the Seattle SuperSonics by 16. 

Of the 19 previous Finals Game 7s, more have been decided by five or fewer points (nine) than have been decided by double digits (five). 

A narrow game could be an advantage for the Pacers, who have pulled off some historic comebacks during this incredible run and have been extremely calm under pressure. They are a remarkable 9-2 in clutch games this postseason. Over the last decade, only the 2020 Miami Heat have had more clutch wins (11) in a single playoff run. 

“I think as a group we’ve just been very resilient throughout the playoffs,” Tyrese Haliburton said on Saturday. “We’re a group of guys that get along really well and are trying to do something special. I think the expectations for this group from an external viewpoint coming into the year weren’t very high. They weren’t very high coming into the playoffs. They weren’t very high going into the second round of the playoffs. They weren’t very high going into the third round. They weren’t very high now.

“I think we just have done a great job of just staying together. There’s not a group of guys I’d rather go to war with. I’m really excited to compete with these guys in a Game 7, and it’s going to be a lot of fun.”

Homecourt will be a major factor

The home team has won four of the first six games in this series, and it easily could have been all six. In the two games where the road team has emerged victorious — Indiana in Game 1 and Oklahoma City in Game 4 — it took major comeback efforts. 

History says that the Thunder have a big advantage by being at home, and indeed they are 7.5-point favorites, which is the fourth-largest Game 7 spread, in any round, since 2014. 

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While the most recent Finals Game 7 went the road team’s way when the Cavaliers beat the Warriors in Oakland, visitors have historically had little success winning such contests. The Cavs were the first road team to win a Finals Game 7 since the Bullets did so in 1978, and of the previous 19 such games, only four have been won by the road team:

• 1969: Boston Celtics 108, Los Angeles Lakers 106
• 1974: Boston Celtics 102, Milwaukee Bucks 87
• 1978: Washington Bullets 105, Seattle SuperSonics 99
• 2016: Cleveland Cavaliers 93, Golden State Warriors 89

To this point, it’s worth noting the Thunder have been borderline unbeatable at home this season. They went 35-6 at the Paycom Center in the regular season and are 10-2 there in the playoffs. And those two postseason defeats — Game 1 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets and Game 1 of the Finals — have been on last-second game-winners after blowing big leads. 

In their 12 home playoff games, the Thunder have posted nine double-digit wins, including four by 30-plus points. Their net rating at home in the postseason is an astounding plus-20.7. 

“The crowd is amazing,” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said on Saturday. “You’re ultimately in your complete comfort zone. The flow to the day doesn’t change. You’re in your own bed. You have shootaround at your building. You eat your pregame meal from your chef or your whoever. It’s very comfortable, the whole flow to the day, and then the crowd is behind you. They give you energy, whether you’re up or down or whatever is going on in the night. It’s an advantage. It’s fun, for sure.”

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