Veteran driver Brad Keselowski has seen better days as he preps for the 2025 Great American Getaway 400 on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET. The 2012 Cup Series champ sits 32nd in NASCAR standings, but there is hope for NASCAR at Pocono 2025. He’s one of the most successful drivers in the Pocono Raceway history, as his 10.8 average finish at the track is second-best among active drivers. Still, he is one of the NASCAR longshots in the latest 2025 Great American Getaway 400 odds. Even with that, the SportsLine model loves him as one of the potential 2025 NASCAR at Pocono sleeper picks this week, considering there are 10 others with equal or shorter NASCAR Pocono odds. Keselowski is priced at +2800, while the favorites are Denny Hamlin (+300) and Ryan Blaney (+600). Keselowski is -105 to finish inside the top 10, while Ty Gibbs is +210 to crack the top five.
Before entering any 2025 Pocono NASCAR picks, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Pocono predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model. Developed by SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, the proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times and has nailed a whopping 23 winners since 2021, including five winners in 2025.
SportsLine simulated the NASCAR Great American Getaway 400 10,000 times. Here are the three NASCAR longshots to target, according to the model:
Best NASCAR at Pocono longshots (odds subject to change):
- Joey Logano (+2500)
- Ty Gibbs (+1600)
- Brad Keselowski (+2800)
Joey Logano (+2500)
The reigning Cup Series champion got off to a rough start in defense of his title but has picked things up as of late. Logano had a 19.7 average finish over his first 10 races but has an average placement of 12.3 over his last six starts. He also will step onto the track on Sunday with recent success at Pocono Raceway. He was fifth at the track last year, won a stage and led for 21 laps in 2023 before DVP ended his day early, and he had top 10s in both of the 2021 Pocono races. The Penske driver also knows he has solid backing as teammate, Ryan Blaney, just won this race last year, giving Penske Racing its 10th Pocono checkered flag. Logano checks multiple boxes as a sleeper and can be wagered on with the help of a DraftKings promo code:
Ty Gibbs (+1600)
Gibbs made his first Cup Series start at Pocono Raceway after a string of successful races at the track on minor series. He had a pair of Pocono starts on the Xfinity Series and another two on the ARCA Menards Series, and those four resulted in one victory and three runners-up. Gibbs placed fifth on the Cup Series at the track two years ago and seemed destined for an even better finish last year as he led for 21 laps before engine problems ended his day early. Add in that Gibbs’ team, Joe Gibbs Racing, has had a stranglehold on this track, with six Pocono wins since 2017, and Gibbs is a NASCAR longshot to go after.
Brad Keselowski (+2800)
Keselowski notched a seventh-place finish in his last visit to Pocono, which included leading the race for 20 laps, which was the fourth-most amongst all drivers. That 2024 start is a part of nine straight top-20 finishes for Keselowski at Pocono, but his success at the track extends much further back. Taking away a car crash in 2018, Keselowski has 16 straight top 20s on the circuit, with a dozen of those being top 10s. He’s done more than just contended at the tri-oval track as he’s prevailed, as his 2011 victory is among five top-2 placements on the Eastern Pennsylvania circuit. Additionally, while his 10.8 average finish at Pocono ranks second amongst active drivers, his 11.6 average finish on 2.5-mile intermediate tracks, as a whole, is best in the sport. Keselowski would be a steal at +2100 and can be wagered on with a FanDuel promo code:
More top NASCAR at Pocono expert picks, longshots revealed
You’ve seen the NASCAR longshots from the model. Now, see the full 2025 NASCAR Pocono leaderboard, including forecasts for who finishes first. Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 23 winners, including Elliott’s victory at Bowman Gray, Larson’s win at Miami, Bell’s All-Star victory, Hamlin’s Michigan win and van Gisbergen’s Mexico triumph.
You can also view expert advice before locking in your NASCAR at Pocono picks. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Steven Taranto’s picks, including an epic longshot of over 50-1, all from an expert who has nailed 17 NASCAR winners.
2025 NASCAR Pocono odds, drivers, lineup
(odds via DraftKings are subject to change)
Denny Hamlin +300
Ryan Blaney +600
Kyle Larson +750
William Byron +700
Christopher Bell +1000
Tyler Reddick +1200
Chase Elliott +1500
Joey Logano +2500
Ty Gibbs +1600
Chris Buescher +2100
Brad Keselowski +2800
Ross Chastain +2400
Carson Hocevar +2500
Chase Briscoe +2800
Kyle Busch +2900
Bubba Wallace +3100
Alex Bowman +3400
Josh Berry +4200
Ryan Preece +5000
Austin Cindric +5000
Erik Jones +5000
Ricky Stenhouse +5500
Daniel Suarez +6000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Zane Smith +10000
Michael McDowell +10000
Shane van Gisbergen +14000
Noah Gragson +14000
John Hunter Nemechek +21000
Austin Dillon +21000
Todd Gilliland +21000
Justin Haley +21000
Cole Custer +21000
Riley Herbst +25000
Ty Dillon +34000
Brennan Poole +50000
Cody Ware +50000
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