Fantasy baseball cheat sheet: Fade David Peterson, Seth Lugo and more THE BAT X insights

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Baseball season is well underway, and with a plethora of articles, statistics and metrics available, it can be challenging to know who to start, sit, fade and trade. Using Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection system, The Athletic has developed a weekly program that helps fantasy managers with difficult roster decisions.

THE BAT X has been the most accurate original projection system in fantasy for five consecutive years and provides estimates based on a wide range of metrics, including Statcast metrics like exit velocity and barrels, as well as ballpark effects, weather conditions, matchups and much more. Another important concept to understand is regression to the mean, which means players performing above their typical level of play are likely to decline, while those underperforming are likely to improve.

This week’s iteration suggests fading David Peterson and Seth Lugo, streaming Ramon Laureano and Chad Patrick, and potentially starting relief pitcher Abner Uribe. And there’s more … so much more. Let’s get to it.

Projections are based on a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters. For a more thorough explanation of THE BAT X, read Carty’s explainer.

The Waiver Wire

For first-time readers, we compare players’ year-to-date value (value to this point in the season) against their projected rest-of-season value (value for the remainder of the season and not including YTD value). Values are expressed as dollars, and $0 represents a starting caliber player in the aforementioned 12-team mixed roto league format. This gives you an idea of which players may be available on your waiver wire, their value for the remainder of the year and why you should grab them before anyone else can. The differential can tell you all you need to know, but because this is a model, you’ll want to use the projections alongside knowledge of your league.

For example, outfielder Jo Adell, who is more available than many players on this list, has a YTD value of $6.40, but he’s projected to have a value of $11.10 for the rest of the season. Adell has already racked up 16 homers (four fewer than he hit all of  last season) with a .224 batting average and a .261 expected average. Additionally, he’s in the 90th percentile in Barrel% and the 94th percentile in expected slugging percentage. He could be a sneaky add if he’s available on your wire.

On the pitching side, Max Scherzer has been on the 60-day injured list since his May 29 start but is rejoining the rotation this week. His ROS value is $8.10, which means he’s projected to be a solid starter in the league format these projections are based on, but there could be some reason for caution. Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reported that while he said his “stuff is fine,” he also stated, “I’m trying everything I can to manage this [thumb] …. There’s no knowing, just have to get out there.”

Reese Olson (15-day IL) and Ben Brown have been on this list numerous times and consistently remain in the top three. Olson is now 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA and should be rejoining the Tigers’ rotation soon. He forces ground balls and whiffs, but he’s getting hit hard and needs to lower his walk rate (9.5%). THE BAT X believes he’ll improve, though.

Fades and Trades

Like the waiver wire, fades and trades are determined based on the year-to-date roster value compared to THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. TJ Friedl was on this list last week, and since then, both his YTD and ROS values have dropped. He’s hitting .290 (though his xBA is .254), but his xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel%, Hard-Hit% and bat speed are all at or under the 14th percentile in the league. He’s not chasing, whiffing or striking out, and his walk rate is solid, but that may not be enough to sustain fantasy relevance.

As a way to illustrate how to use this table in coordination with the “Trade Targets: Hitters” list below, take a look at catcher and first baseman Yainer Diaz, who has a ROS value of $22.20 but a YTD value lower than Friedl’s; Diaz’s fantasy managers, therefore, might be open to a trade.

According to THE BAT X, the following pitchers are overperforming their rest-of-season projections and could be considered fades or trade bait. Last week, we discussed Peterson and his declining value, which has continued to decline since then. It may not be too late to ship him for a pitcher with a higher ROS value, but you either have to act soon or hope for another good game from Peterson and act accordingly afterward.

If you have any stock in Lugo or Jameson Taillon, their ROS values are projected to drop into the negative, making them essentially non-starters. Lugo only has one win in June and is now 4-5. His Statcast numbers are blue across the board, outside of his walk rate. Advanced metrics suggest he’s not likely to improve and will likely continue to regress, as THE BAT X suggests.

Trade targets are similar to the waiver wire and fades, determined by current roster value versus THE BAT X’s projected rest-of-season value. These are players you might want on your roster for the rest of the season. You can even compare this list to the “Fade or Trade” list above and see if there are deals to be made. It will be hard to obtain many players on this list, but Corey Seager and Mike Trout have negative YTD values, and their managers may be ready to deal, despite their $14.80 and $20.20 ROS values, respectively. Trout’s Statcast numbers are all red, so if you can get him, all signs point to him improving.

And while Seager has been a huge disappointment to those who drafted him, his xwOBA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, Barrel% and Hard-Hit% range from the 76th percentile (BB%) to the 92nd percentile (average exit velocity). He’s striking out too much, but even so, his fantasy value looks primed to improve for the rest of the season.

Many of the pitchers on this list will be hard to acquire, like Tarik Skubal. But a couple of weeks ago, a commenter (Brian T.) asked, “Would you trade Soto for Skubal? My other OFs are Tucker, Kwan, Heliot Ramos, Alvarez and Harris. My only SP of note is Crochet.” Derek Carty replied, “Blockbuster deal alert! I think I take that deal, personally, especially if you feel like SP is more of a weakness for your team than SP is. The injury risk is always higher with an SP, but Skubal is far and away the best pitcher in fantasy right now and projects for quite a bit more value than Soto ROS, as good as Soto is.”

At that time, Skubal had a YTD value of $34, and now he’s at $36, while his ROS value has risen from $54.80 to $55.90, indicating improvement (from phenomenal) as predicted.

Hitting

Here are hitters with favorable pitching matchups this week. If you have Aaron Judge on your roster, congratulations, he’s set to have an incredible start to the week. Baltimore outfielder Ramon Laureano, who is only 2% rostered on Yahoo, could fill a spot if you’re desperate for a streamer. He’s on this list for games on Monday, Tuesday and Friday with projected fantasy values that far exceed his underlying value. He’s hitting .252 on the season with nine home runs and two stolen bases. He strikes out a lot (28.5%), but he has a .483 SLG and an .804 OPS.

Here’s a look at hitters who have been over- and underperforming using weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) and expected weighted on-base percentage (xwOBA). Batters with an xwOBA lower than their actual wOBA could fall to numbers closer to expected, while hitters with lower wOBAs could surge as the season continues. This list includes players who have outperformed their expectations in the past 30 days, as measured by wOBA and xwOBA.

Laureano is also on this list, but for different reasons. While he has a .356 wOBA, his xwOBA is significantly lower at .278, which is why he’s 2% rostered and should be considered a streamer rather than a long-term solution.

Of the other players on this list, Jacob Wilson has the lowest xwOBA. He’s still hitting .349 with an xBA above .300, but his Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, bat speed, Chase% and walk rate are all concerning; however, his K rate is an astounding 6.4%, his Squared-Up% is 41.3 (best of the best) and his Whiff% is 9.5. He is disciplined at the plate, which makes up for a lack of power.

The players on this list are the top underperformers in the past 30 days based on wOBA and xwOBA. Top prospect Jac Caglianone is batting only .203 in 64 at-bats, but his expected stats are significantly higher than his actual ones. While it’s too early for his Statcast metrics to be verified, a glance will tell you that the power is there. Nearly the opposite of Wilson, Caglianone needs more discipline at the plate but has the power to elevate him in fantasy.

Finally, we get to the top-scoring offenses of the week. I feel like a broken record when I say that the Dodgers and Yankees are likely to be seen on this list every week. We know these teams have big bats, but the Braves and Orioles are at three and four this week, which means the Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins could have big weeks. Catcher Adley Rutschman, however, is on the IL for the first time in his career, and interim manager Tony Mansolino said he’s likely to be out through the All-Star break.

Atlanta’s Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna could have better weeks than usual.

Pitching

This week, we’re rolling with the changes made in the last iteration to our one- and two-start pitcher sections. Instead of including the top one-start pitchers for the week, we are limiting it to those players who are rostered at 50% or less. Two-start pitchers are now ranked based on THE BAT X’s projection system, excluding those who have a projected negative value.

The best projected pitcher this week under 50% rostered in a 12-team, mixed-league roto format with 23-player rosters, according to THE BAT X, is José Soriano (5-5). Soriano has a 3.39 ERA on the season with a 3.94 xERA, but he’s highly available and gets a good matchup against Washington this week, wherein THE BAT X projects his ERA at 3.24 in six innings pitched. His four-seamer is fast, with a fastball velocity in the 90th percentile, but he throws his sinker and knuckle curve the most, despite his sinker yielding a .298 batting average and only an 18.3 Whiff%. His knuckle curve and slider have the best PutAway% and Whiff% among his five pitches, while his split finger has yielded the fewest hits.

At the top of the two-start pitchers list is Tarik Skubal — no surprise. But if we slide down the list a little, Patrick is only 36% rostered on Yahoo and faces Pittsburgh and Colorado this week. Patrick is 3-7 with a 3.50 ERA and is not a long-term option if you’re looking for an ace, but if you have a spot to fill in your rotation, he could be a decent streamer this week, according to THE BAT X projections.

This week, THE BAT X suggests benching Kris Bubic. The lefty gets two starts this week, which makes him intriguing for weekly (set it and forget it) lineups, but one of those comes against the hard-hitting Dodgers. He’s 6-4 with a 2.12 ERA, 3.08 xERA (81st percentile), and a red Statcast page, so he could still perform well this week, but it’s risky to start anyone against Los Angeles’ bats.

Based on matchups, the Brewers’ and Angels’ bullpens get the best matchups of the week. Uribe (2-1, one save) is only 22% rostered on Yahoo with a 1.98 ERA in 36.1 IP. He’s been a strikeout machine — 45 SO, 30.4 K% — and has avoided being hit hard, forcing groundballs 51.2% of the time. He could be a good option this week against the Pirates and Rockies.

THE BAT X projections powered by EV Analytics.

(Photo of David Peterson: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .