The NHL’s busy season is here, and we’ve got oddly specific predictions

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Good morning to everyone except GMs who say they’re listening but not shopping. We’re well and truly into the offseason now, which means your favorite team has a chance to make the moves that will set them on the track toward the Stanley Cup. Spoiler alert: They won’t, but it’s fun to pretend.

The calm before the storm

The NHL regular season is a six-month grind. That’s followed by the playoffs, a two-month sprint toward the Stanley Cup.

Now it’s the offseason. So … 10 days? Ten days should about cover it.

The NHL doesn’t like to wait around at this time of year. While other leagues have sprawling offseasons that offer up news in drips and drops, the NHL likes to cram it all into a week and a bit. And that week has arrived, so let’s grab the popcorn bags and see where all this goes.

Here are the key steps along the way, and when they happen:

• Buyouts: The buyout window is open right now, although so far T.J. Brodie is the only one. Remember that anyone who doesn’t have a full no-movement clause has to go on waivers first. Here are nine players who could be candidates.

• Trades: The window is open (and if we want to get technical, it never actually closes, even after the deadline). We usually see a few major moves in the days leading up to the draft, and then a few more at the draft itself. Our trade board is here, and we’ve had specific looks at names such as Jason Robertson and Bowen Byram.

• The draft: Round 1 goes Friday night, with Rounds 2 through 7 on Saturday. Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler have been working overtime to get you everything you need, from mock drafts to prospect profiles.

• Last call for eight-year extensions: Any team looking to re-sign a pending UFA to the maximum eight-year term has to get it done by midnight on June 30, which is one week from today. That means it’s also the deadline for any Matthew Tkachuk-style sign-and-trade deals, although those are exceedingly rare. The key thing to remember is that if, say, Sam Bennett hits the open market, he can’t get that eighth year anymore, even if he ultimately decides to return to Florida.

• Free agency: It officially opens at noon ET on July 1. In theory, this is the first day that teams can have contact with free agents. In reality, well, we’ve all kind of agreed not to worry too much about that. All eyes will be on Mitch Marner, how quickly he’s looking to make a decision, and how many teams will be willing to wait for him. Our big board is here.

• After that: The UFA frenzy usually lasts a few days, at which point the flood of news turns to a trickle. There are some decisions to be made around arbitration, and usually a decent trade or two as teams that missed out on key free agents look for a Plan B. But by mid-July, half the hockey world has gone fishing. It’s a good time to check in on friends and family you haven’t spoken to in 10 months.

James Hagens. (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

Crystal Ball 🔮

Three oddly specific offseason predictions

We all love an oddly specific prediction. Well, I love making them — I’m not as big a fan when it’s time to look back and realize I got almost all of them wrong. Still, if you’re going to swing, you might as well swing for the fences, with predictions so detailed that they have no hope of actually coming true — unless they do, in which case I’ll never shut up about it.

Let’s try three that could play out over the next few weeks.

1. Mitch Marner goes short-term. I think your second-favorite newsletter author is right, and we’re about to enter an era where star players finally realize they have more leverage with short-term deals. Signing for seven or eight years makes plenty of sense if you’re old and on the downside of your career, or if you’re a middle-of-the-lineup player who’s happy to trade a few dollars for security. But if you’re a superstar, it’s madness. And Marner feels like the guy who might crack that code, as Pierre LeBrun has reported.

Remember, a big part of the reason Marner is hitting the market at all is that he hasn’t felt appreciated in Toronto. Does he really want to commit essentially the rest of his career to one team, sight unseen? Maybe — lots of guys do. But I think Marner breaks the pattern and ends up signing a three-year deal worth $41.2 million that sets him up to make even more in 2028 when he comes home to Toronto hits the market once again.

2. The biggest trade of the next 10 days comes out of Buffalo. Maybe this isn’t going all that far out on a limb, since the Sabres have a few guys on the trade board. Kevyn Adams hasn’t been a GM who makes big trades, at least when he isn’t forced into it like he was with Jack Eichel. But I’m not sure he has much of a choice. With his reputation suffering, a furious fan base and his job potentially on the line, it’s time for him to show us what he can do. Mix in the recent hire of Jarmo Kekäläinen, who was an aggressive trader in Columbus, and the signs are all there. I think the Sabres make one deal involving at least five players, and maybe even a high pick or two.

3. The Islanders trade up to take James Hagens. Call this one wishful thinking, because it is. Draft floor trades involving high picks are rare in the NHL, where GMs love to talk a good game about making aggressive moves but then inevitably default to the path of least resistance. But with the opportunity to draft a local prospect who grew up as an Islanders fan, you’d think rookie GM Mathieu Darche would at least think about it, right?

Originally, I thought the Islanders might trade down from the first pick, getting Hagens and extra draft capital. But it sounds like they’re locked in on Matthew Schaefer with that top pick. Fine — take Schaefer, then trade back into the first round to get Hagens, too, especially if (as seems possible) he slips out of the top five. My guess is the teams at four (Utah), five (Nashville), eight (Seattle) and nine (Buffalo) would all be willing to at least listen to an offer. It would be a surprise if Hagens dropped to those last two teams, but weird stuff happens. And if it does, I’m predicting Darche drops a bombshell that his new fan base would probably love.

💡 Trivia time

Of all the players who were traded during the 2024 offseason, which one produced the most goals and points?

Hint: They were acquired for the reasonable cost of a third-round pick.

Tuukka Rask, left, and Zdeno Chara. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Who Gets the Hall Call? ☎️

The Class of 2025 is 1 day away

As if there wasn’t enough going on, tomorrow is a big day for the Hockey Hall of Fame. The mysterious and secretive committee will get together and decide which names will make up the Class of 2025. Will we ever know what the votes looked like, or even who was nominated? We will not, and that’s a shame, but it’s a debate for another day. For now, let’s focus on who’s getting the call.

On the men’s side, it’s a crowded class of first-year candidates. Zdeno Chara and Joe Thornton should be sure things, meaning that two of the four spots should already be spoken for. You could absolutely fill those spots with two more first-time candidates, with Duncan Keith and Carey Price both having strong cases. It wouldn’t be a shock if those were the four names, and when you factor in a solid case for Ryan Getzlaf and Tuukka Rask, an all-first-year class feels plausible.

Then again, the committee may decide to make a few of the rookies wait their turn and focus on the backlog of worthy candidates who are still waiting. The obvious name there is Alexander Mogilny, who should have been in years ago; we’re at the point where “What’s the committee’s problem with Mogilny” is one of the great hockey mysteries. Keith Tkachuk and Curtis Joseph have strong cases, too, and Rod Brind’Amour certainly has his supporters.

On the women’s side, the backlog is even more pronounced, partly because the committee so rarely uses both spots available to it. (To its credit, it did last year.) Jennifer Botterill is the biggest name to watch here.

And on the builder’s side, well, who knows? That category is so broad that you really never know who the committee will land on.

My predictions: I say the Class of 2025 features Chara, Thornton, Keith and a surprise men’s name that we haven’t mentioned, plus Botterill. I won’t bother trying to predict the builders, other than to say I’ll have my phone ready for any incoming calls.

More: What does your ideal Hall of Fame look like? I dove into the Peak versus Longevity debate, with five examples of players who may or may not make it in.

Coast to Coast

🚨 Prospects on prospects: In a trio of player polls, upcoming NHL Draft picks dish on where their peers will be selected, the most underrated prospects and their NHL comparables. Some answers are anonymous, others are not. All are fascinating.

✈️ We love it when a veteran heads home to chase a Cup on his childhood team, but that Jonathan Toews deal with the Jets carries more risk than it first seemed.

💰 Harman Dayal on nine overpriced contracts that could be traded this summer.

🔥 Remembering each team’s best and worst draft pick from the past decade.

🎯 Before Friday’s NHL Draft, the PWHL will kick off its own draft tomorrow. Hailey Salvian and Scott Wheeler rank the top 40 players available, led by Wisconsin center Casey O’Brien.

(Derek Leung / Getty Images)

No Dumb Questions

Why can’t you kick the puck into the net?

We believe that in hockey, as in life, there are no dumb questions. So if you have something you’ve always wondered about the sport, ask away by emailing us at redlight@theathletic.com.

Why does hockey have the rule preventing a player from kicking a puck into the goal? I get the what, I do not get the why. Is it a safety issue? — Matt V.

You’re halfway there. Yes, the rule is partly about safety, although that’s not the primary reason. There’s a bigger part here that a lot of fans miss.

Basically, the NHL rulebook says you can score only with your stick. That’s it. Your stick is all that you can use to intentionally propel the puck into the net. That’s why you can’t throw the puck into the net, unless you’re Nelson Emerson. You can’t bat the puck with your glove or arm. And as we learned a few years ago, you can’t even head-butt the puck into the goal, soccer-style. Accidental deflections are fine, but you can’t intentionally use any body part to propel the puck into the net.

So that’s the main reason for the kicking rule. It’s consistent with the rest of the rulebook and the overall philosophy — sticks are for scoring. Nothing else is.

The problem we run into is that most of that other stuff is easy enough to call. There’s not a ton of gray area on head-butting the puck into the net. But with skates, it gets tricker. The puck spends most of the game along the ice surface where all the skates are, and eventually you’re going to get some tough calls when it comes to intentionality, or the infamous “distinctive kicking motion.” That occasionally leads to someone asking why we don’t just scrap the distinction entirely and allow players to kick the puck into the net if they want to. Hey, more scoring is good, right? And maybe it is, but this is where the safety issues come into play. Those skate blades are very sharp, and a goalie reaching for a puck along the ice is taking a non-zero risk. We don’t want to make it worse by encouraging players to be swinging their skates around near loose pucks.

So the rule exists because it fits with the rest of the rulebook, and we haven’t changed it because of safety concerns. If that leads to the occasional confusing call — and it will — then the league seems willing to live with it.

Trivia Answer

Hey, a trade is a trade: I’ll confess to a little misdirection on this one, but it’s Jake Guentzel. Yes, he was traded last summer, with the Hurricanes sending his rights to Tampa on June 30. The Lightning used that window to get him locked in a long-term deal, but while you might think of him as a free-agency acquisition, he was technically traded. His 41 goals and 80 points put him comfortably ahead of the field.

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(Top photo of Mitch Marner: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .