Top-five pass-rate teams in 2024
1 – Cleveland Browns
The Browns pushing to the top of the league in pass rate was a result of multiple factors. For starters, they were a bad team that was frequently in negative game script. That will always over-inflate a team’s passing total. However, this was also part of Kevin Stefanski and the coaching staff adjusting the offense from what he typically wants to do into a more Deshaun Watson-centric approach.
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Every indication Cleveland has given this offseason — from firing Ken Dorsey to drafting a pair of running backs — says that it intends to return to the original Stefanski offense. The Browns ranked 29th, 27th and 25th in pass rate from 2020 to 2022. I’m not sure we’re going all the way back to those days but I wouldn’t necessarily pencil in Cleveland as a high-flying passing team for this upcoming season.
2 – Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals certainly had to take to the air to keep pace with teams that were burning their defense on the other side. However, Cincinnati has always been pass-heavy by design with QB Joe Burrow under center. The Bengals were No. 1 in neutral pass rate last season and second only to the Chiefs since 2021. We can safely project Cincy as one of the more pass-leaning teams going forward; good news for anyone interested in paying the high ADP cost required to snag Bengals pass-game players.
3 – Las Vegas Raiders
Former head coach Antonio Pierce preached a big-time “establish the run” gospel from the moment he took over the interim job in 2023. Things did not go to plan. The Raiders were the worst rushing team in the NFL and didn’t have the defense to stick with it, regardless.
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Las Vegas cleaned house at the end of the season, bringing in Pete Carroll at head coach and Chip Kelly at offensive coordinator. Carroll has always had an affinity for a ground-and-pound operation and Kelly’s teams finished fourth, seventh, 11th and fifth in rush attempts. Unlike the last Raiders staff, they have the personnel at running back to actually maintain a strong run game.
I’ll be stunned if they’re a top-five pass-rate team again in 2025.
4 – New York Jets
The Jets are another team in this top five who cleared out their coaching staff at the end of the season. Tanner Engstrand is an unknown as the offensive coordinator under new head coach Aaron Glenn but if he brings anything over from Detroit, where he was the passing-game coordinator for multiple years, the Jets offense is in for some big structural changes.
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Frankly, this unit won’t resemble its 2024 counterpart in any way.
The 2024 Jets were one of the most static and spread-out offenses in the league. The Lions specialize in condensed formations and tons of pre-snap eye candy. Detroit has also been a run-heavy operation in neutral situations. I’d bet that the Jets turn in that direction this season, especially with Justin Fields under center.
5 – Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks make it four out of five teams listed that parted with their offensive coordinator. Ryan Grubb’s unit was a mess at multiple levels last year and while the Seahawks were extremely pass-heavy, they were woeful in constructing protection plans. Klint Kubiak was brought in to clean up some of the pass-game designs and revive a stagnant run game.
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The Saints were 25th in neutral pass rate under Kubiak last year and were in the bottom half of the league even before injuries struck the receiver room. Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III has been steaming up fantasy ranks in anticipation of the better run game. This also means Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have to make up for some lost volume with improved efficiency and more downfield plays. QB Sam Darnold is a question mark in this regard but playing more outside should have JSN running deeper routes. The good news is that this is baked into his WR14 ADP, which is lower than where he finished in his breakout second season.
Bottom-five pass-rate teams in 2024
32 – Philadelphia Eagles
With an elite defense, a rushing quarterback and one of the best running backs in the sport, the Eagles have the perfect cocktail for a run-heavy team. Even with a change in offensive coordinator with Kellen Moore taking the Saints head coaching job, I won’t be projecting much change to the way this team wants to play on offense.
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A.J. Brown is still an elite wide receiver in the NFL and fits comfortably in the top five of my real-life rankings. That being said, you’re counting on big plays and efficiency. Luckily, he led all wide receivers with 4.27 yards per route run vs. man coverage last year; a ridiculous mark and a testament that he can still be a WR1 in fantasy football in this offense.
31 – Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens don’t have a defense quite at the Eagles’ level in this era of their franchise, but they also present a similar list of ingredients leading to a run-heavy attack. That being said, they’re quietly 11th in neutral pass rate the last two years under Todd Monken (24th last year and seventh in 2023). That’s a stark departure from their 26th ranking from 2019 to 2022 under Greg Roman.
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I continue to believe that the Ravens offense is slowly evolving under Monken as Lamar Jackson continues to blossom as an elite-level passer. While they should be run-heavy again with Derrick Henry, don’t completely pencil them in as the slow-dinosaur, condensed offense they were in Jackson’s early seasons. There is more juice to squeeze for these pass-catchers in fantasy than in the days of old.
30 – Green Bay Packers
If there’s any team I think can make a slight jump in the pass-rate board from the basement, it’s the Packers. Green Bay was dead last in neutral pass rate last year but my suspicion is that was overinflated by the team being cautious with Jordan Love’s constant injury flareups.
The Packers were 20th in neutral pass rate in 2023 with a healthy Love under center. The team obviously loves Josh Jacobs and what he brings to the table, but if I’m right about this, there’s a chance we’ve just completely overstated the team’s run-first nature because of a 2024 outlier. If they throw the ball more in 2025, pass-catchers like Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft could be big-time winners at their light ADPs.
29 – Buffalo Bills
The Bills went from eighth in neutral pass rate to 17th last season. So, while they are indeed more run-heavy under Joe Brady than they were under former OC Ken Dorsey, their placement at 29th is impacted by game script.
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Brady has done a great job building up a strong foundational ground game with James Cook as the lead back behind an underrated offensive line. Josh Allen is a needle-mover in the run game himself. The Bills should also remain one of the better teams in the AFC and will be in plenty of positive game scripts. Perhaps they won’t be bottom-five in pass rate again this season but I don’t see much evidence they’ll kick up toward the top of the league again anytime soon.
28 – Pittsburgh Steelers
No surprise to see the Steelers here, as we know what Arthur Smith wants to do: pound the rock. His Titans offenses were always near the bottom of the league in pass rate, and the 2022 and 2023 Falcons were in the bottom five of each season. Even with Aaron Rodgers in the mix, the Steelers likely won’t push any higher than 20th in overall pass rate. Their offensive line should be a strong unit this season and their pass-catcher arsenal is light. If they push any higher, that means Rodgers won a power struggle for offensive control over Smith.
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Fantasy managers really only want DK Metcalf to hit from this passing game, which can still happen with this overall team volume. We’ll just need Metcalf to have a 28%-30% target share. He’s never done that at any point in his career but given the other options at wide receiver, it’s possible in 2025.
This news was originally published on this post .
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