Who Captures NASCAR’s In-Season Tourney? Predictions For Every Round

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Alex Bowman (8) vs. Joey Logano (25)

Sorry, Bowman, but Logano has two wins in his last five Atlanta starts. Of course, like most drafting tracks, his other three finishes aren’t all that great. But Logano typically is the stronger drafting-track racer.

Joey Logano looks on during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway  <!–>

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Bubba Wallace (9) vs. Daniel Suarez (24)

I know, I know, Suarez won at Atlanta last year. And he has two second-place finishes in the last four races. But Wallace overall has run better this season. Both drivers have immense pressure on them to win and make the playoffs, and whoever handles that pressure the best on Saturday night will prevail.

John Hunter Nemechek (12) vs. Josh Berry (21)

Nemechek has more momentum than Berry at the moment and certainly more experience overall at racing in the draft. 

Chase Elliott (5) vs. Austin Dillon (28)

You think I’m going to bet against Elliott in his home state? Thought about it considering Dillon’s prowess at drafting tracks, but this track, in particular, has not treated Dillon well.

Ross Chastain (13) vs. Erik Jones (20)

Both of these drivers have won on drafting tracks in their careers. Chastain has four top 10s at Atlanta in his last 11 starts while Jones has two. 

Christopher Bell (4) vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (29)

If there was a place to choose Stenhouse, a drafting track would be one. But paired up against Bell, who won at Atlanta in February and finished fourth in this race a year ago? I’m going with Bell, who ironically has Stenhouse’s former spotter, Tab Boyd, as his new spotter.

Christopher Bell celebrates after his second win of the 2025 NASCAR season <!–>

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Chris Bueshcer (3) vs. Todd Gilliland (30)

Buescher gets the nod here. He has been the more consistent driver than Gilliland this season, no matter the track.

Zane Smith (14) vs. Austin Cindric (19)

Smith is a solid drafting-track racer. Cindric is a great one and would likely get more help in the draft than Smith.

Ty Gibbs (6) vs. Justin Haley (27)

Neither of these drivers can claim great success at Atlanta and Haley is a proven drafting-track racer. But Gibbs has been running better this year and would likely get more manufacturer help from his Toyota brethren.

Michael McDowell (11) vs. A.J. Alllmendinger (22)

Both of these drivers are solid drafting-track racers, but McDowell has been the better performer this year. At Atlanta earlier this season, McDowell finished 13th and Allmendinger was 14th. McDowell led 57 laps at Atlanta in 2024.

Kyle Larson (10) vs. Tyler Reddick (23)

Drafting tracks are Larson’s worse tracks, while Reddick seems to have taken to this style of racing. It’s wild to think Larson would get knocked out in the first round, but the seeding and the track make a difference.

Tyler Reddick waves to fans as he walks onstage during driver intros prior to the NASCAR Cup Series FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan  <!–>

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Ryan Blaney (7) vs. Carson Hocevar (26)

Blaney has nine top 10s in his last 10 starts at Atlanta. Hocevar was second at Atlanta in February, but that’s not enough to think he will outperform Blaney again this year.

Ryan Preece (15) vs. William Byron (18)

Preece doesn’t have a finish better than 16th in a Cup race at Atlanta. Byron won this race two years ago and the spring race in 2022. 

Chase Briscoe (2) vs. Noah Gragson (31)

Briscoe has no finish better than 15th in a Cup race at Atlanta. Noah Gragson has a 12th but other than that, he hasn’t had a finish better than 33rd. Going with the driver coming off his first win of the season (Briscoe).

SECOND ROUND — Chicago Street Course

(Using my predictions from the first round)

Denny Hamlin (1) vs. Kyle Busch (16)

Both are good road-course racers but Hamlin is entering this tournament with all the swagger and all the confidence.

Bubba Wallace (9) vs. Joey Logano (25)

Wallace has gotten much better at road-course racing and probably should be the pick. So maybe my heart would rather see a Hamlin-Logano matchup in the next round, but Logano seems to be the right choice.

Chase Elliott (5) vs. John Hunter Nemechek (12)

Elliott was third while Nemechek was sixth at Mexico City, so both have shown recently just how good they can be on road courses. Going with Elliott and the organization’s depth at what is still a relatively new course.

Christopher Bell (4) vs. Ross Chastain (13)

Bell won at Circuit of the Americas and finished second at Mexico City. Chastain is solid on road courses, but Bell has been better on them this year.

Chris Buescher (3) vs. Austin Cindric (19)

This would be a toss-up, but Cindric has the experience of adapting quickly to road courses. Both drivers have one top 10 in the two Chicago races.

Ty Gibbs (6) vs. Michael McDowell (11)

McDowell would have been the choice here until the race at Mexico City, where Gibbs showed incredible speed. The question is, can he do so with the knowledge of a street circuit with no run-off areas?

Ryan Blaney (7) vs. Tyler Reddick (23)

Reddick was second at the Chicago street race last year, while Blaney’s best in the two races is 10th. Hate to do this to Blaney, one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit, but I’m going with Reddick, who would need to shake the current slump to make it happen.

Chase Briscoe (2) vs. William Byron (18)

This isn’t the upset it appears to be when looking at the seeding. Byron, the series points leader, has two road-course wins in his career. Briscoe still seeks his first top five.

QUARTERFINAL ROUND — Sonoma

(Using my predictions from the first two rounds)

Denny Hamlin (1) vs. Joey Logano (25) 

Neither of these drivers has won at Sonoma and both have four top-five finishes there. Giving the edge to Hamlin because his recent finishes of 31st, 36th and 38th at the track are such an anomaly. He can’t have a bad day there for a fourth consecutive year.

Christopher Bell (4) vs. Chase Elliott (5)

As mentioned in the previous prediction for Chicago, Bell has a win and a second-place finish on road courses this year. But I’m going with an upset of sorts in this one. Elliott, after all, was right behind Bell at Mexico City.

Chase Elliott signs an autograph prior to the running of the NASCAR Cup Series Cracker Barrel 400  <!–>

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Ty Gibbs (6) vs. Austin Cindric (19)

Again, going off Gibbs’ strong performance at Mexico City, he’ll get the nod in this toss-up of a matchup.

William Byron (18) vs. Tyler Reddick (23)

Did I mention how Reddick will have to shake his slump to win in the previous round? Well, figuring he advances out of the first two rounds will mean he has shaken it, and with neither of these drivers having great records at Sonoma, I’m going with Reddick.

SEMIFINAL ROUND — Dover

(Using my predictions through the quarterfinal round)

Denny Hamlin (1) vs. Chase Elliott (5)

Both drivers have won twice at Dover and this would be an awesome match to watch if they both get this far. Will go with Hamlin based on his three wins this year. Elliott still seeks his first win.

Ty Gibbs (6) vs. Tyler Reddick (23)

Neither of these drivers has great stats at Dover, but considering Gibbs seems to be in close-but-no-win fashion, we’ll that take that theme throughout this bracket. Plus, his average finish at Dover is a few spots better than Reddick.

CHAMPIONSHIP — Indianapolis

(Using my predictions through the semifinal round)

Denny Hamlin (1) vs. Ty Gibbs (6)

Look, this whole thing was pretty much Hamlin’s idea in the first place. We talk all the time about when he will win a championship. He will at least get this one. 

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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