CFB’s new best Group of 5 conference, plus why Wisconsin-Miami suit matters

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Until Saturday Newsletter 🏈 | This is The Athletic’s college football newsletter. Sign up here to receive Until Saturday directly in your inbox.

Today in college football news, “The Phoenician Scheme” ranks as Wes Anderson’s third-weirdest movie behind “Asteroid City” and “The French Dispatch.” My top three remain “The Fantastic Mr. Fox,” “Asteroid City” and … hmm … “Rushmore.” (On that note, here’s the New York Times’ new list of the 100 best movies of the 21st century, where two Wes movies I did not mention are in the top 25.)

2025 Countdown: Rising Sun Belt

Let’s be straightforward: Here come 700 words about the Sun Belt Conference. They’re part of Until Saturday’s haphazardly formatted 2025 conference preview series. (Those words will be followed by some actual CFB news, some lil jokes from your fellow Until Saturdayers and some free Stewart Mandel.)

1. ICYMI, the Sun Belt is good at football now. Three times in the 2010s, it was the worst conference in FBS, according to Sports Reference’s SRS rating (and the human eyeball).

That has flipped, and quickly. For the past two seasons, it’s been the best Group of 5 league, based on those same metrics (or at least the SRS one). No longer The Southern Version Of The MAC, it now compares to the American and the current Mountain West — and maybe even the future Pac-12.

One of the main reasons? Drawing high-quality upgrades straight from FCS. The winningest three-year FBS debuts since 1978, when Division I split into two levels, with current Sun Belt teams bolded:

1. Marshall (first year: 1997): 0.897 win percentage
2. James Madison (2022): 0.757
3. Appalachian State (2014): 0.737
4. USF (2000): 0.727
5. Liberty (2018): 0.666
6. Georgia Southern (2014): 0.621
7. Old Dominion (2014): 0.567

Sure, Marshall only left Conference USA for the SBC in 2022, but even that furthers the point. The SBC used to be at the bottom of the food chain. Now teams in CUSA aspire toward the SBC. (More on that below!)

2. As the latest hot starter, JMU is also uniquely fascinating. Public interest trailed off a bit after the Dukes’ “College GameDay” era in 2023, but they still dumped 70 on poor Mack Brown last year and won the program’s first bowl.

They’re again right in the mix among this year’s SBC favorites (more on that below), and with no particular end in sight. On that latter part, I turned to The Athletic’s Justin Williams — author of a great explainer on JMU’s whole deal — with a longer-term question on the 23,000-student school’s football program:

Which sounds likelier, a decade from now: JMU appearing in rumors about joining whatever the ACC might be? Or JMU having a decent cruising altitude in pre-Christmas bowl games, a la App State?

“Long term, it’s hard to see JMU being content with pretty good. This is a school that was very deliberate about how and when it made the jump from FCS to FBS, because it was determined to avoid any setbacks from that transition. Outsiders fixate on the advantages of JMU’s institutional support, but the fact that it has largely translated to growth and success is validating. Who knows what FBS football will look like 10 years from now — I suspect the power conferences could get smaller, not bigger, and that’s a tough hierarchy for the Dukes to climb. But I also expect JMU will continue to be ambitious.”

3. Circling back to reigning Sun Belt champ Marshall, things are not as good as they were in 1999. But enough about Pizza Hut buffets. To me, the Sun Belt’s second-most fascinating team this year is the one that had to skip its bowl game seven months ago because half the university had just departed for Southern Miss (which I guess thus ranks as the Sun Belt’s third-most fascinating team).

What will Marshall look like in year one under former NC State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, with almost literally the entire two-deep overhauled? This week, I asked around about that. Everyone shrugged at me. Journalism. ✅ Moving on.

4. Overall, the Sun Belt might have this season’s most competitive race of any FBS conference.

• Per FPI, it’s the league that’s the shakiest at the top. FPI gives its Sun Belt favorite, Louisiana, just 19 percent odds of winning the conference, less than half of its odds for Boise State, Tulane or Ohio State to win theirs.
• The Sun Belt is also home to FPI’s most hopeful laggard. ULM’s conference title odds are last in the league at 1 percent, but that’s better than the odds for dozens of other teams to win other leagues. (Purdue has a flat 0 percent, for instance.
• Per SP+, JMU is the clear league favorite, but the next 10 SBC teams would all project within a touchdown of each other, if you set wagering lines for matchups on a neutral field.

Hell yeah, man. Now you’re ready for some October weeknight football.

Quick Snaps

🤔 Well, you’re pretty much guaranteed to click this one: What’s the worst program Nick Saban could’ve led to a national title? Matt Baker nerded way the hell out on this one, and there’s also a survey of 17 The Athletic staffers, which reveals at least one of us views almost every Power 4 team as a theoretical Saban champ.

🐝 Sacramento State has relatively big money and undeniably big names (Shaq!), but an NCAA committee just shot down the Hornets’ FBS bid. Christopher Kamrani and Stewart with a great explainer on Sac State’s whole deal.

🏹 What’s it like to raise a kid all but guaranteed to be one of the most hyped CFB prospects ever? Bruce Feldman asked Arch Manning‘s parents.

📰 Elsewhere in college sports: “The Trump administration announced Wednesday that the California Department of Education must forbid schools from allowing transgender girls to compete in girls’ sports … or ‘risk imminent enforcement action.’”

Eternal Realignment: Brilliant ideas for more Pac-12 expansion

The Pac-12 is indeed adding Texas State, Chris Vannini confirms. Chris adds, “To fill the Bobcats’ spot, the Sun Belt is expected to move quickly and is focused on Louisiana Tech or Western Kentucky from CUSA.” (See?)

Meanwhile, earlier this week, Until Saturday readers responded to a call for other non-Western candidates the Pac-12 should consider, now that geography no longer matters, thanks to the conferences that tried to kill the Pac-12.

You had some great ideas. Peter recommended Pennsylvania Western University (in California, Pennsylvania). Hailey went with East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, East Tennessee State, etc. Dan brought us “the University of Maine at Machias, THE most eastern team in the country.” All approved.

Most importantly, Nathaniel broke out a comprehensive case for the Pac-12 ensuring all of its football members continue to have “State” in their names:

“The obvious next choice for Pac-12 expansion is Florida State.

“1. Adds the Florida footprint to the premier West Coast conference.

“2. A built-in rivalry with Fresno State. Who’s the REAL FSU??

“3. In their filing against the ACC, Florida State said they would have preferred adding Oregon State instead of Cal and Stanford. Now’s your chance, Noles.

“The answer is too obvious for it to ever happen, but as we have seen, the simplest solution is always the most elusive in college football.”

Tallahassee is very near the west coast of a coastal state, after all.

Mandel’s Mailbag

With respect to the lawsuit by Wisconsin against Miami, what should fans really be thinking about this? Fans of Wisconsin? Fans of Miami? Fans of other power schools? Etc. — Brian H., Madison, Wis.

Every fan of every school, not just Wisconsin and Miami, should be paying close attention to this fascinating suit, because it could have major ramifications for the future of the sport.

Obviously, the House era in college athletics is brand new, and it appears Wisconsin is eager to set legal precedent affirming that a school-issued NIL contract binds a player to his or her school in a way outside collective deals could not. If Wisconsin succeeds, it could become a far more effective deterrent to schools poaching other teams’ players than the NCAA’s tampering rule, which is rarely enforced and only a minor penalty if it is.

But there’s an interesting subplot at play here. While transferring cornerback Xavier Lucas’ deal is not public, I have previously obtained several other schools’ rev-share contracts, including from one Big Ten school that uses the same template language as others. It has language specifying that it’s not an employment agreement and not to be construed as pay-for-play.

Which would seem to stand in direct conflict with Wisconsin’s assertion that the deal bound Lucas to its team. Either Lucas’ contract has different wording that says it is dependent on his participation in the program or the school is saying it would not have tendered the contract if not for Lucas’ word that he would continue playing there.

Obviously, not all lawsuits make it to trial, but I hope this one at least makes it to discovery, so we can peel back the curtain on how the portal and (alleged) tampering work.

More Mandel mailbag here.

This news was originally published on this post .

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