College football realignment: Power ranking the new-look Pac-12 based on history, program trajectory

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The Pac-12 finalized its football lineup this week by adding Texas State as a full member of the new-look conference, set to launch in 2026. The addition brings the Pac-12 to eight football-playing schools — the minimum required for bowl tie-ins and potential College Football Playoff access.

Keeping the Pac-12 intact after the exodus to the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 was a strategic decision by remaining members Oregon State and Washington State. With a legacy brand and the right expansion candidates, the Pac-12 could reemerge from the realignment chaos as a top-five football conference.

The first move came last fall, when the Pac-12 added five of the Mountain West’s most prominent programs. The additions of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State made sense regionally and strengthened the league’s level of competition. Those schools have combined to win 11 of the last 12 Mountain West titles and have filled 18 of the 24 spots in the conference championship game over that span.

Texas State was the final piece. While the Bobcats lack the FBS pedigree of their future conference mates, they bring a long program history and have found recent success under coach G.J. Kinne. The school has posted back-to-back eight-win seasons and seen a rise in attendance, signaling positive momentum. Though not a geographic fit like the Mountain West additions, Texas State is a program on the rise.

This isn’t a case of “take the check, take the losses.” Every new Pac-12 member expects to compete for championships from Day 1. So how do these programs compare? In the transfer portal era, it’s tough to predict what rosters will look like a year from now — but based on current form, recent success and future outlook, we can offer an early power ranking of the reimagined league. We’ll revisit the list after the 2025 season, but with a year still to go, here’s how the new-look Pac-12 stacks up in football.

1. Boise State

Last conference championship: 2024 

Record last 3 years: 30-12 

The star of the new-look Pac-12 has been a consistent winner for the last 25 years, just logged its first College Football Playoff appearance and had its best player finish as the runner-up in the Heisman Trophy voting. While the Broncos will be a couple years removed from Ashton Jeanty’s historic 2024 season when they join the league, the standard and pedigree of Boise State football in the 21st Century is not only tops among this group but has a place among the most impressive runs in the entire sport. Since 1999, the Broncos have 16 conference titles, 14 AP Top 25 finishes (five as a top-10 team) and no years with a losing record. Most of these teams have been competing for, or winning conference titles in recent years — but none have won consistently for a quarter-century with no dip in results.  

2. Fresno State

Last conference championship: 2022 

Record last 3 years: 25-15 

Fresno State has had some “hard reset” years with its football program, but each new coach has found his way back to competing for conference championships. That’s what makes the Bulldogs’ future outlook so bright, as the hire of Matt Entz signals a commitment to continue that standard in the new-look Pac-12. Entz won two national championships as a head coach for North Dakota State (2019, 21) after serving as the defensive coordinator for a run of four titles in five years with the Bison between 2014-18. After two years as an assistant head coach at USC with Lincoln Riley, the two-time FCS Coach of the Year is back to running his own program, and like NDSU he’s not dealing with a rebuilding project. No one is comparing Fresno’s regular bowl eligibility to North Dakota State’s FCS dynasty, but in a similar manner it’s fair to expect Entz to have this team ready to compete once the expanded Pac-12 kicks off in 2026. 

3. Texas State

Last conference championship: 2008 (FCS Southland) 

Record last 3 years: 17-18 

Texas State made the jump from FCS to FBS in 2012, but only under G.J. Kinne have the Bobcats have found postseason success to mirror what the program did at the FCS and D2 levels in other decades. The only FBS bowl appearances ever for Texas State have been First Responder Bowl wins at the end of each of the last two seasons. While you have to go back to 2008 in the Southland Conference to find the program’s last league title, it seems pointed in the right direction. As the lone Texas school in the Pac-12 it will be interesting to see how recruiting is impacted by the conference move, but right now the roster is loaded up with players who started elsewhere after taking 30-plus transfer portal additions in each of the last three offseasons.     

4. San Diego State   

Last conference championship: 2016 

Record last 3 years: 14-23 

From 2010-2022, every full season of San Diego State football (other than the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign) ended in a bowl appearance. That 12-year run included three conference titles and at least a share of six division championships. There was an identity to that era, and now fans are hoping the DNA of championship success remains even if the team is transitioning coaches and conferences. Sean Lewis went 3-9 in his first season with the Aztecs — the program’s worst record since 2008 — but he’s earned some patience thanks to his ability to pull Kent State out of the gutter the last time he was a head coach. The Flashes had a winning record in MAC play (19-17) across Lewis’ five seasons, including two of the school’s five bowl appearances and the lone bowl victory. San Diego State has recent history to lean on, so once the style and scheme changes find their fit, this team should be back in the mix on a regular basis.   

5. Washington State 

Last conference championship: 2002 

Record last 3 years: 20-18 

Mike Leach restored respectability to a program that went a decade without a bowl appearance from 2003-13, and peaked with a top-10 finish and 11-win season in 2018 before leaving for Mississippi State. This is a program that can compete and win Pac-12 Championships in the new era, but unlike some of the other programs in the league there is not a historical high floor. Washington State can peak, yes, but it can also bottom out. Since 2004 there have been more seasons with double-digit losses (three) than double-digit wins (one). As the Cougars prepare for 2025, they have one of the lowest returning production ratings in the country, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. The good news for Wazzu’s outlook is what seems to be a stellar hire after Jake Dickert left for Wake Forest. Jimmy Rogers is a former all-conference linebacker at South Dakota State who joined the coaching staff at his alma mater and took part in a run of FCS dominance. He was the FCS Coordinator of the Year in 2022 as the Jackrabbits won the national championshi. He then took over as head coach in 2023 he led the program on another national title run. Rogers, 38, has a 27-3 record as a head coach and appears to have the coaching chops required to help Washington State get reacclimatized to its new reality in the re-built Pac-12. 

6.Utah State  

Last conference championship: 2021 

Record last 3 years: 16-22 

Three different head coaches have led Utah State to top-25 finishes since 2010, reinforcing the idea that this is a program capable of competing for championships when things are aligned. Last season’s 4-8 record can be partially attributed to that alignment falling apart — from the offseason firing of Blake Anderson to a lame-duck year under an interim coach.

The hope now is that Bronco Mendenhall, the former BYU coach who also led Virginia to an ACC Championship Game, can restore stability and put the Aggies back in the conversation as a contender in the new-look Pac-12. The roster may need another year of development before results show in the standings, but that timeline could align perfectly with Utah State’s arrival in the conference next summer.7. 

Oregon State  

Last conference championship: 2000

Record last 3 years: 23-15 

Technically, Oregon State also gets to claim the 2024 Pac-12 title as a result of its head-to-head win against Washington State in Corvallis on Nov. 23. So congrats to the Beavers, but we’re looking for more a full-field win for our analysis that will take us back to the beginning of the century. Things have been good recently, though, with Jonathan Smith running off three straight bowl seasons and a top-25 finish just before leaving for Michigan State at the end of 2023. Trent Bray steadied the ship after Smith’s exit but the 5-7 record — where the highlight was probably taking out Washington State to snap a five-game losing streak — suggested more rebuilding years in the future. Now a little more experienced, Bray hopes this year’s Beavers’ team can bounce back quickly and be ready to hit the ground running in the expanded Pac-12.   

8. Colorado State 

Last conference championship: 2002  

Record last 3 years: 16-21

In 2013, Jim McElwain won eight games with Colorado State. He followed that up with a 10-2 regular season record in 2014. At the time, the school was raising money for a new football stadium (Canvas Stadium, opened in 2017) and momentum was building for Colorado State to enter an era of contention. Instead, it was the opposite. Those two seasons were the only ones between 2002-24 in which Colorado State won more than seven games. Jay Norvell broke that run last year with an 8-4 regular season, highlighted by a 6-1 showing in conference play and the program’s first bowl game since 2017. It’s a credit to Norvell’s efforts that he has increased the win total in all three of his seasons, and the hope is postseason appearances will become more of the expectation rather than a footnote worthy of special celebration.

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