Fantasy Baseball: Spencer Schwellenbach’s fractured elbow forces longterm stash or cut decision

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The Braves nightmare season took another terrifying turn Wednesday, as the team announced Spencer Schwellenbach has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a fractured right elbow.

And if you’re thinking this injury came out of nowhere, you’re not wrong. Schwellenbach is coming off arguably his best start ever, striking out 12 over seven one-run innings against the Phillies Saturday. There were no real red flags in that start – his velocity was down 0.4 mph on his four-seamer, which is pretty typical – and Schwellenbach has been a workhorse lately, throwing at least six innings in 10 straight starts, including seven or more in seven of them. 

There was no sign that things were about to go wrong for Schwellenbach, but they did because, well, that’s how pitching works. Schwellenbach will be sidelined from throwing for at least four weeks before the team will determine whether he can be cleared, but that won’t happen until the fracture is fully healed. So, while reports indicate the team expects he will be able to pitch again in September, that sounds more like a “hope” than an “expects” to me. 

So, what does that mean for those of you with Schwellenbach on your roster? It depends on what they mean by “September,” right? If it’s “We think he’ll be cleared to return to the majors on September 1,” then it’s an easy call: You keep him stashed, either on your bench or in an IL spot, no matter what. In H2H points leagues, there’s a chance that even an early September return won’t be in time if your playoffs start in August, as many do. But having Schwellenbach back for the playoffs would obviously be a huge gain for you, or a boon for an opponent if you drop him. You can’t take that risk.
If we’re talking about more of a mid-September timeline, well, things start to look a lot iffier. In H2H leagues, that might mean Schwellenbach might just be back in time for the finals if you make it, with no guarantee he’ll be fully stretched out by then. In Roto leagues, where you play through the last day of the season, that’s less of a concern, but it’s not a non-zero concern – if Schwellenbach is back by mid-September but not fully stretched out, he might not even be worth using. 

And that’s assuming he makes it all the way back – the Braves are in fourth place in the NL East right now at six games under .500, and may not have any incentive to rush Schwellenbach back after this injury. Any even minor setback could make a 2025 return all but impossible. Add in the chances that Schwellenbach returns but isn’t truly himself again until 2026, and … well, I think you should approach this one with the thought process that anything you get from him the rest of the way is a bonus.

So we need some replacements, don’t we? If you can afford to, keep Schwellenbach stashed and hope for that September return. But you need someone to take his place in your lineup, and while there’s very little chance you’re going to replace a 3.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 25% strikeout rate on an ace’s workload, you’ve gotta try. 

Your best bet might be to look at the trade market and try to buy low on a struggling ace. Look for someone like Jesus Luzardo (4.06 ERA, 2.75 FIP) or Dylan Cease (4.53 ERA, 3.23 FIP), both of whom feel like very good bets to pitch much better moving forward than they have so far. They’ve both struggled with consistency over the years, but if you get the positive side of their variance, both could very capably fill in for Schwellenbach without costing you an arm and a leg.

Or you can look to the likes of Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez, both of whom have shown ace upside in the past but have struggled in their returns from Tommy John surgery. They are both much less safe bets than even Luzardo or Cease, but have similar upside if all goes right. You could also say the same for Chase Burns, the fireballing rookie for the Reds who was bombed for five runs without getting out of the first inning in his second career start. He just might not be ready to be a difference maker at the MLB level, but he certainly has ace upside if it all comes together relatively quickly. 

If you can’t pull off a trade for one of those names, here are 10 pitchers to look to add on waivers: 

• Edward Cabrera, Marlins (54%) – I went into Cabrera’s resurgence in Wednesday’s edition of the Fantasy Baseball Today Newsletter, but here’s the TL;DR version: Cabrera lowered his arm slot, ditched his four-seamer, and has looked better than ever over the past two months. There are still shortcomings (below-average control, mediocre team context; doesn’t consistently pitch deep into games), but this is the upside we’ve always hoped was there for Cabrera. And, with a trade seeming probable, at least one of those shortcomings could be addressed soon. 
• Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks (63%) – Nelson’s got One Weird Trick for getting hitters out: He spams his four-seamer more than any other pitcher in the game. From his high arm slot, he’s able to generate a ton of weak contact on the four-seamer, though it generally isn’t much of a bat-misser, which limits the strikeout upside here. I have my doubts, but Nelson’s 3.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 150 innings over the past calendar year kind of speak for itself. 
• Emmett Sheehan, Dodgers (52%) – The expectation is that Sheehan will be fully stretched out and called back to the Dodgers rotation sometime next weekend, and that’s awfully exciting. In 23.2 innings between the majors and the minors this season, he has 42 strikeouts to just two walks, which is pretty bonkers. He probably won’t pitch too deep into games consistently, but he’ll still have a fair shot at wins thanks to the Dodgers offense, and there should be plenty of strikeouts here. Sheehan might have legit ace upside if he can stay healthy. 
• Mike Soroka, Nationals (41%) – Soroka tends to have some trouble with loud contact, but he’s working on that. He’s been tweaking his changeup to try to solve his issues against lefties, and we saw some solid growth there in June – his .303 xwOBA and 26% whiff rate against lefties in June will both play well, given how righties tend to struggle against him. It’s a relatively small sample size of success against lefties, but Soroka is now down to a 3.04 xERA for the season, so it might just be time to take him seriously. 
• Kumar Rocker, Rangers (32%) – I wrote about the changes Rocker has made lately in the Week 15 Waiver Wire column, but he’s the TL;DR version: He’s itched his formerly excellent slider for a harder cutter that he’s using as his primary pitch, and it’s suddenly made his whole profile look a lot better. Rocker has 16 strikeouts to five walks in 16.1 innings over the past three starts, and the key to unlocking even more upside might be finding a way to work that slider back into the arsenal alongside the cutter. If he can do that, he could really take off. 
• Eduardo Rodriguez, Diamondbacks (59%) – Rodriguez’s 5.13 ERA will surely scare many off, but his 3.61 xERA suggests he has deserved better, and the three starts of at least 10 strikeouts suggest there’s plenty of upside here. He’s coming off a June where he had a 1.98 ERA, so why not keep playing the hot hand? 
• Nick Martinez, Reds (47%) – Martinez was out of the rotation for a couple of turns after really hitting a rough stretch in the first few weeks of June. So, of course, he flirted with a no-hitter in his most recent start. Of course. Martinez doesn’t have much strikeout upside to speak of, so he has to be precise with his command to be a difference maker. The margin for error is slim, but he does have a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 175 innings over the past calendar year, so it’s mostly working for him. 
• Brayan Bello, Red Sox (54%) – Bello is suddenly leaning on a cutter more and now has a true five-pitch mix. It hasn’t suddenly turned him into a strikeout pitcher, but Bello does have a 2.98 ERA since the start of June, so maybe the expanded arsenal is helping keep opposing hitters off balance. 
• Justin Wrobleski, Dodgers (14%) – As Lance Brozdowski recently noted in his newsletter, Wrobleski has dropped his arm angle and increased his fastball velocity, while seemingly tweaking his changeup to generate significantly more drop. He struggled early in the season, but just finished up June with a 2.73 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, and might be pitching his way into the Dodgers’ rotation plans. The Dodgers do have a rotation full of arms working their way back from injuries, so his role is uncertain, but injuries tend to find a way to wreck the Dodgers’ plans, so he might just stick around. 
• Joe Boyle, Rays (29%) – With 96 strikeouts and vastly improved control over 73 dominant innings at Triple-A, Boyle is one of the most obvious minor-league stash candidates out there. Will the improved command stick? Well, it did in his lone MLB start earlier in the season, when he walked two and struck out seven over five shutout innings. He deserves a chance, and if the command improvements stick, Boyle has the stuff to be a legitimately useful Fantasy option in all leagues. 

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