

PHILADELPHIA — The Phillies‘ catalyst, who helped catapult them back into winning circles, returned last week, ahead of the club’s three-game set against the Padres. After missing much of the month with right wrist inflammation, Bryce Harper, the cornerstone, was back in the Phillies’ lineup for the first time in close to the month.
But the two-time MVP suiting up again shouldn’t be misconstrued for full health. Harper is still in pain. He still feels his ailing wrist.
“I didn’t think I was going to take any other steps forward of feeling better or anything like that,” Harper said last week. “I thought we were kind of at a standstill, feeling the same last couple days. From batting practice to live batting practice. It kind of gave us the same results.”
Those results, though, don’t matter to Harper. Not in the slightest. Only the ones on the field do. The Phillies handled the Padres, taking two of three, then beat the Reds two out of three in their following series. On paper, there’s a lane for Philadelphia to run away with the National League East.
The Mets, despite a series win over the Yankees, have been in a funk — going 7-15 since June 13. Their starting pitching, an early season surprise, has regressed sharply, posting a 5.61 ERA in that stretch, the second-worst mark in the majors. And despite all the talent on that Braves squad, the club has been a major disappointment, sitting in fourth place at 39-50.
The Phillies enter Tuesday’s slate with just a one-game lead over the Mets in the division, but SportsLine projections give them an 83.3% chance to win the NL East. The Phillies are the fairly heavy division favorites as the All-Star break approaches (-190 to the Mets’ +135 at FanDuel).
Still, this hasn’t been a season of smooth sailing for the club. There are plenty of question marks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline as the Phillies try to march toward their first World Series title since 2008.
“I mean, overall, we have had a solid season,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told CBS Sports last week. “We have a good club. We’re on a pace to win 90-95 games. So, anytime you win [that amount of games], it’s a good season. But it’s been an unusual season, because it’s been an up and down season for us. I mean, we’ve had some real streaks in there.”
Indeed, the Phillies have had some streaks in there. Both hot and cold. From May 29-June 10, the club lost eight of its 10 games, yielding just a .219 batting average over that span. Philadelphia quickly followed that up with a 9-2 stretch before getting swept by the Astros. They scored one run in three games in Houston.
Overall, the Phillies’ offense hasn’t met expectations. As mentioned, they’ve struggled to slug, hitting just 97 home runs through 90 games. That projects to 175 for the season, which would be their lowest total since 2015 when they hit 161. They have just one player (Schwarber) with more than 20 homers. Alec Bohm, J.T. Realmuto, Max Kepler, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh all entered Tuesday with slugging percentages lower than they had last year.
“I think this year has been a funny year, not just with us, but throughout baseball,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “I think offenses are very hot and cold on every team. And I think we’re going through the same thing, but the good thing is, I think that when we have struggled at times, we’ve been able to play a little bit of small ball. Steal some bases, bunt a guy over. Some small little things to create some runs, which has kept our head above water.”
The rotation, even without Nola, has helped keep the club afloat. Prior to Monday’s contest against the Giants, Phillies starters, led by Zack Wheeler, were tied with the Tigers for second in the majors with a 3.32 ERA on the season. But just as the rotation thrives, the bullpen has leaked, relinquishing a 4.39 ERA, good for 23rd in the majors. Opening Day closer José Alvarado is currently serving a PED suspension and will not be eligible for a postseason roster.
Still, the Phillies remain in the NL East driver’s seat and have the third-best World Series title odds in baseball (+800 on FanDuel). With about three weeks until the trade deadline, Dombrowski, never shy about swinging a blockbuster or finding the small move that helps on the margins, knows how to keep the team ahead.
“Without getting totally into everything and tipping our hands, the one thing I would say even through a process of elimination, it’s not our starting pitching,” Dombrowski said. “Our positional players are basically solid in almost every spot. We need to have maybe a little bit more consistency. But when we got Harper back, that will make a difference for us and some of even the internal guys can pick it up a little bit.
“By default, I would say the back end of our bullpen is the one area that we would probably [upgrade]. And when I say back end, people that can pitch late in the game and close tight games.”
If the Guardians continue to slide, would they part ways with Emmanuel Clase? That could be a fit for Dombrowski and his club. Or would the Diamondbacks be OK with moving Shelby Miller? Maybe another option for Philadelphia. Either way, there’s a lane for the Phillies to run away with the division. Harper is back. That means something. The talent is already on the field — and in the front office — with a shrewd Dombrowski, widely respected as a brilliant baseball mind among his peers and competitors.
“You’re trying to do all you can to win as many ball games as you can in today’s world,” Dombrowski said.
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