If Orioles, Pirates sell at MLB trade deadline, which players have potential to step up?

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With the MLB trade deadline quickly approaching, the divide between buyers and sellers is becoming clearer. In this column, I’ll look at the Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates (potential sellers), their key players who could be moved, and interesting in-house pieces who could fill gaps or take on a higher role after the trade deadline.

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Baltimore Orioles

Despite entering this season with expectations that they would be postseason-bound, the Orioles are trending toward being sellers or, at least, reshaping their roster. Due to underperformance and injuries, the Orioles are 7.5 games back of the final wild card spot and 12 back in the AL East. However, they have a deep team with many players who may be of interest to opposing teams. I’ll focus on their rotation and first base.

Starting pitchers

The Orioles have three starting pitchers who will be hitting free agency at the end of this season and will likely see high interest as the deadline approaches:

• RHP Zach Eflin
• RHP Charlie Morton
• RHP Tomoyuki Sugano

Eflin is currently on the 15-day IL with lower back discomfort; it’s his second time on the IL this season (his first stint was April 8-May 11 with a right lat strain), and it is unclear when he will return. Morton and Sugano are healthy. Eflin and Morton offer veteran presence with postseason experience, while Sugano — though riskier due to limited MLB time — remains intriguing because of his plus control and two above-average pitches (splitter and cutter).

If the Orioles decide to trade one (or more) of these pitchers, only a few guys in Triple A can take their spot(s). I’ll focus on the following three options because they all fall in the Orioles’ top 30 prospects per MLB’s prospect list

1. RHP Chayce McDermott
2. RHP Cameron Westin
3. RHP Brandon Young

RHP Chayce McDermott — No. 3 Prospect

McDermott is the Orioles’ third-ranked prospect, but he’s their number-one pitching prospect. That being said, he has some strides to make before settling into a role in the majors.

McDermott started one game at the major-league level this season and pitched in relief in another (a total of 7.2 innings pitched). He has a 5.94 FIP, 22% strikeout rate, and 20% walk rate through 31 innings pitched in Triple A.

McDermott throws three pitches:

• Fastball (93 mph): above-average ride
• Slider (83 mph): above-average depth and average sweep
• Changeup (83 mph): above-average depth and below-average fade

Control is McDermott’s biggest hurdle and is something he has struggled with throughout his minor-league career. His best minor-league season walk rate is much worse than average at 13%. At this point, it seems unlikely that he can progress enough to be trusted with a long-term starter role despite starting in the minors. Depending on his improvement, he may be better suited as a multi-inning reliever or shorter-stint bullpen piece. Despite being ranked lower by MLB and due to better control, I think the following two pitchers have a better shot at a starter role.

RHP Cameron Weston — No. 17 Prospect

Weston is not on the 40-man roster but is a starter in Triple A and is the Orioles’ ninth-ranked pitching prospect. He offers a unique look with a low three-quarter delivery. While Weston lacks a true plus pitch, he’s expanded his arsenal since joining the Orioles’ system. He throws a fastball, slider, changeup, splitter and cutter. This mix allows him to throw to all four quadrants of the zone, keeping hitters off-balance. He’s shown an ability to get strikeouts and ground balls throughout his minor-league career and has average control.

RHP Brandon Young — No. 19 Prospect

Young has already stepped in for Eflin in the rotation, posting a 4.83 FIP through four starts (16.2 innings). He features a five-pitch mix consisting of the following:

• Four-seamer (93 mph): above-average ride
• Curveball (77 mph): above-average depth and run
• Cutter (86 mph): above-average cut
• Splitter (87 mph): below-average depth
• Change-up (87 mph): poor depth, average fade

The mix is fairly average in shape and movement, though the curveball is his best offering.

Against righties, Young primarily utilizes his four-seamer and cutter. He mixes in his curveball occasionally on the first pitch and when he is ahead. He leans heavily on his splitter when he gets ahead and when he has two strikes, as it generates high, in-zone misses. That being said, Young has not been getting ahead that often. His 14% walk rate comes over a small sample but would rank the worst in MLB if qualified.

The good news is that a walk rate this high is unusual for Young. His walk rates in the past few seasons in the minor leagues have been much more manageable:

Data from FanGraphs

While Young started his professional career with a very competitive strikeout rate, it declined significantly, beginning in Double A.

*Small sample, only 22 innings.
Data from FanGraphs

Based on this information and his pitch characteristics and mix, I project Young to have a strikeout rate closer to the major-league average (20-22%) at best. While he shows some ability to get strikeouts, he does not have high velocity or stuff with the movement that will generate high swing-and-miss. He will need to rely more on his control and command for success.

Once his control stabilizes, he can lean more confidently and effectively on his best pitch — the curveball.

Regarding fantasy outlook, Young profiles as a back-of-the-rotation, depth starter. If you’re considering adding Young as a streamer, avoid starting him against good teams.

First base

Another major trade piece is first baseman Ryan O’Hearn. The hole he leaves behind is tougher to fill because the Orioles do not have much first-base depth.

RHH Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo has taken reps at the position and is an option to take over at first for the remainder of the season. Through 82 PA in the majors this season, Mayo has been unimpressive with a .584 OPS, 26% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate (all below average).

In the minors, Mayo showed consistent power (his strongest tool) and an ability to walk. In the majors, he has struggled to achieve the same results because he is having trouble making contact and recognizing breaking and off-speed pitches, which has been reflected in his sharply reduced walk rate. The first sign of improvement for Mayo would be taking more pitches and walking more. From there, he can afford to be more selective and start translating his power more consistently.

LHH Heston Kjerstad

Heston Kjerstad is another player who can fill in despite spending most of his time in the majors in the outfield. In 167 PA this season in MLB, Kjerstad struggled with a .567 OPS, 27% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Like Mayo, power is Kjerstad’s strongest tool, but he struggles with pitch recognition and swing decisions.

Given the struggles of both players, a platoon of righty Mayo and lefty Kjerstad may be the most effective short-term solution. This way, they can each get at-bats in favorable matchups and, ideally, start to improve.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates enter the deadline in an interesting spot, with three bullpen arms that could attract trade interest:

1. RHP David Bednar
2. RHP Dennis Santana
3. LHP Caleb Ferguson

Ferguson will be a free agent at the end of this season, but Bednar and Santana each have another year under team control. All three have had successful seasons so far and will be of interest to competing teams. I’ll examine how Santana and Ferguson would do if they were to remain and take on more responsibility.

LHP Caleb Ferguson

Through 38 innings pitched, Ferguson has a  2.85 FIP, 20% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Though his strikeout rate is down from years past, his FIP is the best it’s been since 2020. One standout stat is his hard-hit rate, which ranks the best in MLB among qualified pitchers. It’s also much improved since last season:

Data from Baseball Savant

The decreased HH% is partly due to a change in pitch mix that better equips Ferguson against lefties. Before this season, Ferguson had reverse splits:

This season, he has improved his results against lefties by over one run.

Ferguson has three fastballs: a four-seamer, cutter and sinker. Historically, he’s used his four-seamer as his primary weapon against lefties, followed by the cutter and then the sinker. This season, however, he’s throwing the sinker 45% of the time, and it’s now his primary pitch.

The sinker is getting good Chase and Whiff, and, most impressively, he is not giving up any damage with the pitch. Of the 123 sinkers thrown to lefties this season, only four have been hit hard. And of those four, three were foul balls, and the fourth was a ground out.

Bednar and Santana may be overshadowing Ferguson in the bullpen right now, but Ferguson is quietly having a great season with intentional changes backing his success. If Bednar and/or Santana are traded, Ferguson can fill their shoes and succeed in higher-leverage situations.

RHP Dennis Santana

Righty Santana made significant strides in 2024, allowing him to be trusted in higher-leverage situations. His control improved significantly; he’s been better at limiting hard contact; and his FIP has decreased from 5.89 in 2023 to 2.51 this season.

The biggest change has been how he uses his pitches, especially the slider. Santana now relies on his slider as his primary pitch against both hands and has reduced the usage of his sinker and changeup.

Data from Baseball Savant

He’s also changed how he is using his slider. In 2023, Santana’s slider effectively got Chase when hitters swung. However, hitters often didn’t swing because Santana was not landing it for strikes.

This season, the slider usage is a lot different. Against both hands, Santana is throwing the pitch mainly for strikes, and the results are much better across the board.

Table data from Pitcher List

Throwing the slider in-zone more has also improved Santana’s walk rate, which is 5%, the lowest of his career.

Santana has earned trust in big spots with this strike-throwing approach and revamped pitch usage. If Bednar is traded, Santana has the arsenal and control to continue his success as the Pirates’ closer.

(Top photo of Caleb Ferguson: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

This news was originally published on this post .

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