For quite a while, the American League East looked like it would be a laugher this season. The Yankees had a five-game lead by the middle of May and it grew to as high as seven. It was 6 ½ as late as June 3. The Blue Jays actually trailed by eight games and were down by four on June 22. Then, between June 30 July 5, they turned a three-game deficit into a three-game lead.
Entering Thursday, the Jays have a 2 ½-game lead over the Yankees with the Rays four games back and the Red Sox still within striking range at 5 ½ back. The Orioles, who were a sneaky pick to win the division back in spring training, sit 12 ½ games out as one of the most disappointing teams in baseball.
How do we think this division shakes out moving forward? Let’s dive in.
The odds today are via FanDuel:
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 54-39 | Odds to win division: +155
The Jays have gone 28-11 since May 27, a monster run that is the best record in baseball during that stretch. The offense has been the main reason, as they are averaging 5.64 runs per game in there and that includes their 2-1 loss to the White Sox on Wednesday — hey, it happens to everyone — that snapped their 10-game winning streak.
The big-picture argument on the Blue Jays is whether or not their high level of play is sustainable. I used May 27, a totally arbitrary endpoint, but yhey were 26-28 through that date. That’s a larger sample of mediocre or even bad play then the stretch here lately when they’ve been amazing. Then again, we’ve also see teams get off to slow starts, have everything click and carry the great play through the end of the year.
The interesting thing here is that a lot of the supporting cast on offense has been hot — Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, Nathan Lukes, Davis Schneider — through the run while 35-year-old George Springer is hitting like he did in Houston. The argument could be made that these guys are all due for some regression in the second half.
The interesting thing is the Blue Jays haven’t even been pitching well. They sit 21st in team ERA. They were 25th in June and even in a small sample of July they’re 11th. That’s with them going 8-1 to start the month.
What I think I’m saying is that if the pitching improves, there’s a chance it mitigates any offensive regression. Keep in mind there’s also a trade deadline and this front office has shown it wants to be aggressive in adding.
The bottom line is that I believe the Jays are here to stay.
New York Yankees
Record: 51-41 | Odds to win division: -115
Even with three straight wins, the Yankees are still 9-16 since their high-water mark of 17 games over .500 on June 12. They have a losing record since the start of June. Everyone expects them to right the ship in some fashion — I agree — and it’s possible this three-game winning streak is the start of that.
Still, concerns abound. They already needed a starting pitcher before Clarke Schmidt went down, meaning you could argue they now need two. The bullpen has been leaky for a while. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has correctly been moved to second base in an attempt to shore up the poor defense, but that also means the Yankees need a third baseman.
General manager Brian Cashman publicly said they team is going to “go to town” at the trade deadline, but can they really land multiple pitchers who can be used as starters along with any relief help needed and a good third baseman? It’s a tall order.
There is a ton of talent here, though, and the Yankees are on pace to win 90 games in spite of all these issues the last several weeks.
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 50-43 | Odds to win division: +650
Driven by a talented infield that has three All-Stars, the Rays have been offensive this season, in a good way. They are first in batting average and seventh in runs scored. They averaged 5.6 runs per game in June. With the likes of Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz leading the way, my expectation is the offense will be good all season. The Rays are generally adept at putting together a pitching staff by any means necessary, too. There are good parts with upside, but the entire rotation has been inconsistent, too. Their “home” for the season is a tough environment on pitchers, after all.
The Rays have actually lost seven of 10 and I wonder about the impact of so many upcoming road games. They finish the first half on the road and open the second half with a six-game homestand. Then they play 19 of 22 games on the road with the one home series coming against the Dodgers. That’s the most brutal stretch any team will face this season.
The Rays have gone 22-18 on the road this season, so they are certainly capable of emerging as legitimate division contenders from that tough stretch. I think it hurts them, though.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 49-45 | Odds to win division: +1800
The Red Sox have won six in a row and eight of nine. They are right within striking range as they are getting Alex Bregman back from injury and look forward to the trade deadline where Craig Breslow would surely love to show the fans he’s running a buyer this season in the wake of the Rafael Devers trade.
The next stretch should tell us a lot about the Red Sox. Keep in mind this six-game winning streak came against the Nationals and Rockies. Yes, good teams beat up on bad teams, but it also doesn’t mean we should adjust expectations moving forward.
Starting Thursday, the Red Sox play four games against the Rays. After the All-Star break, they head to Chicago to face the Cubs before taking on the Phillies in Philadelphia. Then they host the Dodgers. They open August with the Astros.
Sure enough, the Red Sox have the hardest remaining schedule in all of baseball by opponent’s winning percentage.
My hunch is they can hang around in the wild-card race and maybe even make the playoffs, but I don’t have them winning the East.
Baltimore Orioles
Record: 40-50 | Odds to win division: +18000
They just dug too deep a hole. At seven games out of the last wild card, they are still conceivably alive there, but the division is over for them.
Prediction
I think it’s Yankees and Blue Jays down the wire, though something to watch is that the Rays get to play the Blue Jays six times in the last two weeks of the season. That means I wouldn’t argue against anyone wanting to ride with the Rays. I’ll say the Yankees find a way here, but there are three decent-to-good answers and there’s especially good value on the Rays if you’re a believer.
This news was originally published on this post .
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