Fantasy Football: 3 overvalued early-round wide receivers

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  • CeeDee Lamb fell from the top: Lamb finished first in fantasy points for wide receivers in 2023, butDak Prescott’s accuracy declined, and then Prescott and Lamb dealt with injuries, leading to less fantasy production from Lamb.
  • The Seattle Seahawks will look far different on offense: The team has a new offensive coordinator, a new quarterback and three new wide receivers to join Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the top of the depth chart. The changes might not be good news for Smith-Njigba’s fantasy production.
  • Subscribe to PFF+Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

Estimated reading time: 11 minutes


In an ideal world, every player will put up the same stats as their best season, if not better, in 2025. Unfortunately, there are several reasons why a player might not reach those same heights. Specifically for wide receivers, this could include changes at quarterback, changes in competition, or simply the player getting another year past their prime. The wide receivers in this article are being selected in the first three rounds, which is too high compared to other alternatives at the same draft spot.

The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.

Last updated: Thursday, July 10


CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 1.06)

Lamb started as a top-seven fantasy wide receiver over the first eight weeks. He averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game, a notable dropoff from 2023. His target rate was down slightly, but his catch rate was down from 72.9% to 60.8%, leading to fewer receptions and fewer yards.Dak Prescott’s accuracy rate dropped from 63.3% in 2023 to 51.0% in 2024 on all passes, likely contributing to Lamb’s decline. The offense wasn’t performing well, so his touchdown rate was down.

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