Fantasy Football ADP Battle: Nico Collins vs Brian Thomas Jr.

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• Nico Collins made the most of his healthy games in 2024: A fully healthy Collins is primed for a bounce-back season as a top wide receiver in 2025.

• Brian Thomas Jr. delivered an elite rookie season: Thomas dominated as the Jacksonville Jaguars’ top receiving threat, setting expectations high for Year 2 should this offense take a step forward under Liam Coen.

• Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!

This fantasy football article series breaks down the toughest draft-day decisions facing fantasy managers, using Underdog’s average draft position (ADP) as a guide. Each installment compares similarly ranked players at the same position, using key stats from previous seasons and contextual factors — including team situation — to identify the better pick.

Today’s article spotlights Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins and Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. — two high-upside options being drafted near the first-/second-round turn in fantasy leagues. Which one deserves the edge in 2025? Let’s break it down.

NICO COLLINS (WR7) vs. BRIAN THOMAS JR. (WR8)

Collins missed five games during the 2024 fantasy season, which dropped his overall finish to WR26. However, he was far more impactful on a per-game basis, ranking as the WR8 in points per game. Before his injury, he delivered two top-five weekly finishes — including a run as the PPR WR2. After returning in Week 11, he added two more top-12 finishes and closed the season as the WR27 over the final six weeks.

Thomas Jr., meanwhile, had a standout rookie campaign, finishing as the PPR WR5 overall. He posted five top-10 weekly finishes and quickly became the focal point of Jacksonville’s passing game. His 129 targets more than doubled the next closest Jaguar and ranked third among all rookies in 2024.

INVOLVEMENT IN THE OFFENSE

Despite playing in only 12 games in 2024, Collins led the Texans in every major receiving category, including targets (99), receptions (68), yards (1,006) and touchdowns (seven). He was clearly the top option in the offense, even if not always the first read. His 28.3% target rate led the team and ranked third among 103 qualifying wide receivers last season.

Thomas also operated as his team’s primary target, posting a 24.7% target rate, a top-15 mark among qualifying wide receivers in 2024. His heavy involvement stemmed partly from necessity, as fellow starters Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis each played 10 games or fewer. But Thomas made the most of that opportunity, quickly establishing himself as a high-end receiving threat in his rookie season.

PRODUCTION AND PERFORMANCE

Collins was a top-five wide receiver in both yards per game (88.0) and yards per route run (2.87) in 2024, continuing the momentum from his breakout 2023 campaign. He’s proven to be one of the league’s most efficient and productive receivers, and that status holds up over a larger sample — his 2.64 yards per route run over the past three seasons ties him with Justin Jefferson for fourth among all wideouts.

Thomas also impressed in the efficiency department, leading all rookies in yards per route run last season. His mark was the second-highest by a qualifying rookie wide receiver over the past three years, trailing only Puka Nacua.

HIGH-VALUE TARGET INVOLVEMENT

The Texans offense ranked top-10 in red-zone plays during the 2024 season, and Collins was the primary beneficiary. Five of his seven touchdowns came on red-zone targets, and his 27.1% red-zone target rate ranked inside the top 10 among wide receivers (minimum 40 routes). With his established role in high-leverage situations, there’s every reason to expect Collins to remain a go-to option in 2025.

Thomas was also a focal point in the red zone, though Jacksonville ranked just 26th in red-zone plays last season. Still, his reliability in tight spaces helped him deliver eight red zone touchdowns — the most by a rookie since Odell Beckham Jr.’s breakout in 2014, further solidifying his standing as a premier scoring threat.

TEAM PASSING AND QUARTERBACK SITUATION

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are coming off a stronger overall season than Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, though both quarterbacks — and their offenses — still have untapped potential heading into 2025.

Stroud delivered a top-12 campaign by PFF passing grade, but his accuracy ranked outside the top 32 at the position, and he took 63 sacks, second-most in the league. That pressure could persist, as Houston’s offensive line lost four starters this offseason and failed to make major upgrades, leaving Stroud vulnerable again in Year 2.

Lawrence, meanwhile, played in just 10 games in 2024 — the fewest of his career — but will look to bounce back under new head coach Liam Coen. Coen’s offense in Tampa Bay last season ranked top five in both overall offensive grade and passing grade. If he can bring even some of that success to Jacksonville, where the Jags ranked 24th and 22nd in those categories, respectively, Lawrence and the passing game could see a significant rebound.

POTENTIAL 2025 TARGET COMPETITION

Both Thomas Jr. and Collins could face their biggest target competition in 2025 from highly drafted rookie wide receivers, with Travis Hunter and Jayden Higgins arriving as major offseason additions.

Hunter, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, is expected to step in as the Jaguars’ clear No. 2 receiving option behind Thomas Jr. While that could be seen as a reason to temper expectations, the likely improvement in Jacksonville’s passing game should create enough volume for both players to thrive.

In Houston, Higgins — selected 34th overall — will push for a starting role and may emerge as a consistent No. 2 option based on his collegiate usage profile. While Christian Kirk joins the Texans as a potential slot specialist, his presence didn’t meaningfully impact Thomas Jr.’s production when healthy in 2024 and shouldn’t be a major obstacle to Collins maintaining his status as the offense’s top target.

Nico Collins vs. Brian Thomas Jr.: Target Maps (2024)

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