Nov 4, 2023; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Derrick Lewis (blue gloves) reacts after losing to Jailton Almeida (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jason da Silva-Imagn Images UFC Fight Night is heading to Nashville for a thrilling card that is prime for sports betting picks.
Here are Deadspin’s best UFC Fight Night betting picks for Saturday, July 12.
Tallison Teixeira by KO/TKO vs. Derrick Lewis (-170)
Derrick Lewis is always going to be a dangerous striker, but at 40 years old he has kind of become a sacrificial lamb in the heavyweight division whenever UFC needs a headliner for a middling Fight Night card.
Tallison Teixeira is 8-0 with a 100 percent finishing rate and seven knockouts. Not only that, but an opponent has yet to even make it out of the first round against Teixeira in his professional career. The 25-year-old heavyweight gets his first significant chance at a breakthrough in a nationally televised fight, and it shouldn’t take all that long either.
Teixeira won his UFC debut in 35 seconds via a combination of knees, and he won his Contender Series fight in just 1:57. Only one of Lewis’ last 10 fights has gone the distance, and the 40-year-old has lost five of his last eight.
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Junior Tafa to win (-180) vs. Tuco Tokkos
Junior Tafa looks lean and mean ahead of his debut at 205 pounds. One of the major concerns for Tafa while fighting in the heavyweight division was that he looked a bit too heavy and sluggish at times, so his appearance at least suggests he has been taking the right steps ahead of this fight.
Tafa is 2-3 in his UFC career, which is still two wins better than the forgettable 0-2 record his opponent has put up in his time with the world’s premier fighting promotion. This is a great opportunity for Tafa to get into a rhythm in the UFC and avoid being one of the many names released and sent into the MMA abyss.
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Gabriel Bonfim by submission (+125) vs. Stephen Thompson
There isn’t much value on Bonfim to win the fight at -450, but taking the Brazilian to win by submission at +125 is a fantastic compromise. Five of Bonfim’s last six fights and 13 of his 17 career wins have ended by submission.
The odds are plus-money here because Thompson has only been submitted once in his career. However, that was in December 2023 when he was already 40, and he is only getting older at 42 in 2025.
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