How Cubs’ Matthew Boyd turned into an All-Star pitcher, and four other under-the-radar additions paying off

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Chicago Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd will make his 19th start of the season on Saturday afternoon, when he attempts to avenge a blowout loss on Friday to the New York Yankees (GameTracker). Boyd will be opposed by fellow southpaw Max Fried in a battle of All-Star honorees. (Neither will be able to pitch on Tuesday.) It wouldn’t be fair to write that Fried’s designation was preordained — anything can happen with respect to pitcher health — but the Yankees signed him to an eight-year pact worth $218 million for good reason.

Boyd, conversely, settled for a two-year deal worth $29 million that didn’t demand nearly as many headlines or inspire particularly lofty expectations. He came into this season, his age-34 campaign, having appeared in just 33 games (23 of them starts) over the last three years. He had pitched well in those outings, amassing a 101 ERA+ and a 2.87 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but anyone forecasting him for an All-Star trip would have been properly dismissed as unknowledgeable.

Credit Boyd and the Cubs for delivering that unlikely outcome. In his first 18 starts, he’s compiled a 2.52 ERA (152 ERA+) and a 4.17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Boyd leads the Cubs in innings pitched, and his 12 quality starts account for a third of Chicago’s total. His contributions have been worth an estimated 2.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference’s calculations. 

Just how did the Cubs unlock Boyd’s advanced form? 

Although Boyd didn’t appear to be a perfect fit on paper — Chicago tends to prefer pitchers with supinator motor preferences, or pitchers who tend to get around the ball, creating natural cut and unlocking superior breaking ball shapes — he has adhered to one key piece of the organization’s identity: fastball obsessiveness. He’s increased both his average fastball velocity (by more than a mile per hour) and his usage rate (from 38.7% to 46.4%). At a time when the rest of the league is running away from heaters, the Cubs are throwing a MLB-high 47.3% four-seamers. For context: only one other team, the Washington Nationals (41.7%), has a four-seamer usage rate higher than 39%. 

Those tweaks haven’t just made Boyd an All-Star, they’ve made him one of the best under-the-radar acquisitions in the majors. Here are four others who have paid dividends in the first half, plus an honorable mention that deserves some love. (Do note that there were plenty of other candidates, but sometimes you have to limit the scope for brevity’s sake.)

You could argue that Adrian Houser deserves recognition as Chicago’s best value addition. I’m giving Smith the nod because of the novelty of unearthing an immediate All-Star in the Rule 5 draft. How rare is that accomplishment? Research suggests that Smith, plucked from the Milwaukee Brewers system, joins longtime big-league second baseman Dan Uggla in that exclusive club.

Smith, 25, came into the weekend sporting a 4.26 ERA (98 ERA+) and a 2.19 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first 18 appearances thanks to some quality secondary pitches, including a GIFable changeup. He’s encountered some turbulence as of late, surrendering five or more runs in four of his past five outings. On a possibly related note, he’s about eight innings away from matching his single-season high. 

Yes, one of the reasons the Brewers left Smith unprotected was his lack of durability; even now, he’s thrown a total of 243 innings as a professional. The White Sox’s gamble still appears to have paid off, but it only makes sense that his workload may require some micromanagement the rest of the way.

The Red Sox plucked Narváez from the Yankees last December in exchange for lefty pitcher Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. While Rodriguez-Cruz has a 2.26 ERA in 15 appearances at the High-A level and may impact New York’s roster in a few seasons, Narváez has been an immediate factor for Boston.

Coming into Saturday, Narváez had hit .272/.348/.440 (117 OPS+) with eight home runs and 18 additional extra-base hits in 72 games. What’s more is that he’s been one of the top defensive backstops in the game. Baseball Prospectus’ Catching Defense Added metric attempts to quantify any and every aspect of a catcher’s game. Narváez ranks fifth in that metric (it’s a counting stat), behind Patrick Bailey, Alejandro Kirk, Austin Wells, and Cal Raleigh.

In other words, even if Narváez hadn’t hit this well, he would still be a nifty addition for a Red Sox team that has recently caught fire. 

When the Orioles signed Laureano to a one-year pact with a club option in February, the option aspect seemed more like wishful thinking than anything likely to be exercised. Besides, he appeared to be a spare part on an outfield depth chart that included Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Tyler O’Neill, and Heston Kjerstad. Now? The Orioles look prescient in more ways than one.

Laureano has been the best performing outfielder on the roster, to the extent that he’s on pace to establish new career-highs in OPS+ (138) and WAR.

There are two big changes I see with Laureano’s game. Foremost, he’s tightened his handle over the strike zone. Whereas his career chase rate is around 28%, this year he’s expanding his zone on just 22% of offerings — and notably, he’s done that while keeping his in-zone swing rate around career levels. Laureano is also pulling the ball in the air more often than before, allowing him to maximize his slugging output. 

Laureano will turn 31 in a matter of days. If the Orioles decide to go all-out on selling, his signing could yield even more value through a trade.

Cecconi was the return the Guardians received from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for first baseman Josh Naylor. I doubt even Cleveland foresaw him entering the All-Star break leading their active starting rotation in both ERA+ (119) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.11), but he’s settled into a groove over his last seven starts. 

To wit, Cecconi has compiled a 2.72 ERA and 26 more strikeouts than walks while averaging 5.6 innings per pop since the start of June. That’ll play for a Guardians club that is without starters Shane Bieber, John Means, and Ben Lively on account of injury, as well as Luis L. Ortiz because of a league gambling investigation.

Cecconi has raised his arm angle and dropped his fastball usage, reducing it from 54.9% to 39.7%. He’s instead upped his usage rate of a curveball that has the highest whiff rate in his arsenal, and a sinker he mostly deploys to keep right-handed batters honest. Clearly it’s working for him.

Why is Walter only an honorable mention? Because he actually signed with the Astros last August, after being released by the Red Sox. At the time, Walter was recovering from a shoulder injury that wiped out his 2024 campaign, meaning that this is his first true season with the Astros in spirit, if not by the letter of the law. Anyway, I think it’s fair to write that he’s provided Houston with substantially more value than could have been expected given he was a 27-year-old with a bad wing.

Indeed, Walter has now started seven times for the Astros this season, tallying a 3.98 ERA (103 ERA+) and a 20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. (That is not a typo: he’s struck out 40 batters and walked two.) The key to his success has been a high-grade changeup that has generated nearly 40% whiffs to date. 

If you want to know how the Astros have remained atop the American League West despite having a full rotation on the shelf — including Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Spencer Arrighetti — then look no further than the contributions they’ve received from unexpected figures like Walter. 

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