Way-too-early predictions for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup winner, awards and more

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By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille, Jesse Granger and The Athletic NHL Staff

Are the Florida Panthers bound for their third straight Stanley Cup championship? Are the Vegas Golden Knights destined to make a deep run after landing Mitch Marner, the most prized free agent on the market? What will the playoff field look like when the regular season plays out?

With the offseason’s big free-agent signings in the books, The Athletic asked its NHL staff those questions plus who the first coach fired will be, which players will win the major awards and more.

Here are our early 2025-26 NHL season predictions.

Which predictions will look best and worst this time next year? We’ve brought in senior national writer Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger to provide context, analysis, skepticism and some light trolling of the results.

Figures are rounded. 

Stanley Cup champion

Granger: I understand the excitement for the Golden Knights, who are always among the top contenders and just addressed their biggest need by acquiring Marner, but I have concerns about the blue line after the loss of Alex Pietrangelo. Defense has long been the anchor in Vegas, and that group will look very different without its top dog.

Goldman: The Panthers make the most sense at the top, because most players aren’t departing for more money elsewhere after winning — they’re sticking around in Sunrise to be a part of a dynasty. Until someone proves otherwise, Florida is the team to beat.

Gentille: I ditched Florida for the Golden Knights at the start of the playoffs. Didn’t quite work out. So, of course, I swerved back to the Panthers this time around. Congratulations to the 2025-26 champion Vegas Golden Knights!

Marner Magic is coming to the Las Vegas Strip 🪄 pic.twitter.com/ox8T7i9AJM

— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) July 1, 2025

Runners-up

Granger: Roughly 70 percent of the voters have Florida reaching its fourth-straight Stanley Cup Final, and it’s hard to argue against it. The Panthers return the same core, with stars at every position and backstopped by 36-year-old Sergei Bobrovsky, who still looks as good as ever.

Gentille: The Panthers are going to have to give me a reason to pick against them in the Eastern Conference.

Goldman: Huh, not a lot of support for the Los Angeles Kings even after adding Corey Perry? Vegas is the most interesting name here, especially if it’s for another matchup against the Panthers.

Surprise playoff team

A projected lower-tier team (+6,000 or worse odds of winning the Cup, per BetMGM) that you see making the playoffs.

Granger: After falling two points short last year, the Columbus Blue Jackets should certainly contend for a postseason spot in 2025-26. I think there’s room for improvement in net, especially with Jet Greaves finally getting a chance to be a full-time NHL goalie. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s Columbus’ starter by the end of the season.

Goldman: The Bruins??? In this economy??? The Blue Jackets showed so much promise this past year; if they can stay healthy, they should stay in the mix down the stretch.

Gentille: Yeah, the Metro is on track to be weak yet again, and that’s good news for the Blue Jackets. I wanted to pick the Detroit Red Wings here, but their offseason has (to date) been preeeetty uninspiring.

Dark horse Cup contender

A projected middle-of-the-pack team (between +2,000 and +6,000 odds of winning the Cup, per BetMGM) that you could see making a real run.

Granger: I picked the Minnesota Wild here. They looked like one of the better teams in the West before the injuries last season, and gave the Golden Knights a good run in the first round despite just getting guys back into the lineup. With several key players in contract years, I feel like this could be the best Wild team we’ve seen in some time.

Goldman: The Winnipeg Jets and Wild are logical picks here, although neither team really improved this summer. Vegas did, and the Dallas Stars could be better under a new(ish) head coach. So I think there’s more room for a dark horse in the East, and I went off the board with Montreal. Between their post-4 Nations Face-Off turnaround and their offseason additions, the Canadiens would probably be the most fun pick of the group here.

Gentille: I came close to joining Shayna on Team Habs before going with the St. Louis Blues. They needed a 2C to help their lineup fall into place, so they went out and got Pius Suter. Lots to like about what they’ve done over the last two summers, as long as they don’t do something weird with Jordan Kyrou.

Biggest disappointment

A projected favorite (+2,000 or better odds of winning the Cup, per BetMGM) that you could see missing the playoffs or being a first-round flameout.

Granger: The New Jersey Devils are the obvious pick here because the team simply hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season. New Jersey has the talent to go on a deep run in the playoffs, but between the injuries at forward and defense and the good-but-aging goalie tandem of Jacob Markström and Jake Allen, the situation feels fragile.

Goldman: The Edmonton Oilers still have clear holes, so I get that pick here … but Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will literally drag this team into the playoffs. I have to agree with Jesse and go with the Devils. Love the addition of Connor Brown, but I need to see New Jersey make one more top-nine swing to convince me that its five-on-five scoring will be balanced enough.

Gentille: Yeah, not to belabor the point, but I also went with the Devils. They got hit hard by injuries last season, but “fragile” is the right word for that lineup, even if it’s at full strength.

Presidents’ Trophy

Granger: Cue the “Mitch Marner is only good in the regular season” jokes. Seriously, we’ve seen Jack Eichel completely flip the narrative of his career after joining the Golden Knights, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Marner follows a similar path.

Gentille: The Carolina Hurricanes added important pieces and should be able to beat up on a bunch of teams in their division. That, plus their regular-season track record, was enough for me.

Fewest points

Granger: The San Jose Sharks have a talented young core that should improve, added some solid veterans in Jeff Skinner, Dmitry Orlov and Adam Gaudette in free agency, and are turning the crease over to Yaroslav Askarov. They were terrible last season, but it certainly feels like the Sharks are on a better trajectory than the other teams on this list.

Gentille: At some point, you’d think the Chicago Blackhawks will try to win some hockey games. We are not at that point.

Goldman: The Blackhawks had a spark late in the year and Spencer Knight looked like a great fit there, but … this team still has a ways to go.

First coach fired

Gentille: We heard the whispers about Andrew Brunette’s job security last season, and Nashville’s roster looks even worse for 2025-26. That’s not a great combo.

Goldman: Almost went with Patrick Roy here, because new general managers tend to want to hire their own coaches. I get why Mathieu Darche is giving him another shot, but I think his replacement is already in place (Bob Boughner) if things go south on Long Island. Ultimately decided on Brunette because, yeah, everything was a disaster in Nashville last season. I really wonder if he’s just meant to be an associate/assistant, but never the guy behind the bench.

Granger: It’s interesting that the Devils were the overwhelming pick to be the biggest disappointment, but then Sheldon Keefe didn’t get a single vote here. To me, that shows the divide between the haves and have-nots in the NHL is only growing wider, and not many people really expect the contenders to disappoint (or at least, aren’t ready to predict it with any sort of confidence).

Ivan Demidov played seven games last year for the Canadiens between the regular season and playoffs. (Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).

Gentille: Seven games’ worth of Ivan Demidov was enough to make this one pretty lopsided. He’s supremely talented and about to get power-play/top-six minutes on a good team.

Goldman: Demidov was really fun to watch in just a handful of games, so this checks out. I think the reason there isn’t more certainty around him in this poll is that we don’t know which players from the 2025 draft class will break through and make the NHL next year. This could look a lot different in a few months.

Granger: I agree with both of those takes. When we start to see where the top rookies are sitting in lineups around the league, there will be more options. If San Jose improves this year, as I suggested earlier, it’s hard to imagine Askarov not being in the Calder discussion.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by general managers.

Granger: I thought I’d be going out on a limb by picking Jake Oettinger here, but it turns out I’m far from alone. Oettinger has quickly become one of the most consistent performers in the NHL, but I think we’ve yet to see his best hockey. With the team in front of him, this feels like it could be the year.

Gentille: I think fatigue is about to set in for Connor Hellebuyck, and Oettinger seems as prepared as anyone to take advantage.

Goldman: Also, we know how much spite can fuel a player … so after his end of the year, he should be fired up for next season. Oettinger makes a lot of sense, but I actually went with Igor Shesterkin here. If there can be one ounce of defensive stability in New York, his traditional stats should shine more.

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.

Goldman: Quinn Hughes was a game-breaker last year, despite not being 100 percent (and having a lot of chaos around him). If he hadn’t missed time last year, he might have finished higher. Thomas Harley getting some votes here is fun, but not sure he’ll get the same hype as a No. 2 to Miro Heiskanen next year.

Gentille: I wanted to go with Zach Werenski here, but that would’ve been more about last season than the next one. Cale Makar is the boring, correct answer.

Granger: Can we please get fully healthy seasons out of Makar and Hughes? It would make for one of the best Norris races in a long, long time.

Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who demonstrates throughout the season the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.

Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is always going to (rightfully) earn a bunch of votes, but how about Eichel? He earned some recognition last year, and with Marner on his wing, they could be a two-way force. Some players get docked for having a super-skilled linemate or winger (especially in the Norris and Hart conversations). But that really hasn’t been an issue with the Selke — Barkov has Sam Reinhart while Anthony Cirelli has Brandon Hagel, and it hasn’t stopped either from earning votes.

Granger: I completely agree that Eichel should be in the conversation. It would help if he could improve his faceoff numbers, because he’s already a monster defensively and plays more penalty-killing minutes than just about every other star center in the league. He’s strong, rangy and has fantastic hands. It’s a little odd that he isn’t better at them.

Jack Adams Award

Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.

Goldman: If Spencer Carbery won the award in 2023-24, maybe Dean Evason could have won this past season. So maybe this award just works on a year’s delay. If the Blue Jackets use last year as a stepping stone to actually reach the playoffs, he could emerge as the favorite.

Gentille: Yep, the Jack Adams was Carbery’s to lose last season, I think. Still, don’t underestimate Mike Sullivan. He’s a great coach, he’s never won the award and he’s about to take over a team with an elite goaltender.

Granger: My pick for “surprise playoff team” was the Calgary Flames, so I went with Ryan Huska here. If the Flames take a step forward, he should be in the conversation.

Jim Gregory Award

Given to the top NHL general manager. Voted on by a panel of all 32 NHL general managers, five NHL executives and five media members.

Granger: I picked the Stars to win the Cup, so I picked Bill Zito to win GM of the year. Jim Nill wins the award every time Florida wins the Cup, so it’s only fitting they trade places.

Goldman: Yep, Zito probably wins it this year. However, it would be nice to see Eric Tulsky get some hype after a busy offseason.

Gentille: The Panthers would have to miss the playoffs for it to be anyone other than Zito.

Hart Trophy

Given to the player ajudged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the PHWA.

Granger: After a “down” season with “only” 100 points, potentially playing on an expiring contract, McDavid will be motivated to remind everyone who the best player in the world is.

Goldman: Originally had McDavid, swapped it to Kirill Kaprizov. His electric start to this past season made him an early favorite, so let’s see if he can build on that. Factor in McDavid and Draisaitl likely having to battle for votes, and there is room for someone else to emerge as the winner.

Gentille: I picked Kaprizov, too. Is that because I went chalk on my Norris pick? Maybe.

Eastern Conference playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the vote received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2024-25)

(Note: The New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators tied for the eighth spot)

Granger: The top six teams feel like pretty safe picks to make the playoffs, and then it gets fun. I picked the Red Wings, backstopped by John Gibson, to nab the final wild-card spot, but the competition should be fierce.

Goldman: The Rangers should be able to make their way back into the playoff picture, which means at least one team has to slide out. The Canadiens’ improvements give them the edge over Ottawa, as much as I like the addition of Jordan Spence.

Western Conference playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the vote received by each team. (Note: * playoff team in 2024-25)

Granger: I’m on an island picking the Flames to shock everyone and make the playoffs. If there’s a division where someone can surprise, it’s the Pacific. Dustin Wolf should take another step forward in his second full season and could join the Vezina conversation if I’m right about Calgary.

Goldman: Thought the Utah Mammoth were going to be the surprise eighth seed in the West last year and was wrong, but I’m digging my heels in and running it back. The standout here to me isn’t who we project will qualify, but who could miss: Vancouver!

Gentille: I went with the exact 2025 playoff field. Extremely boring.

(Top photo of Aleksander Barkov battling for the puck with Pavel Dorofeyev and Jack Eichel: Candice Ward / Getty Images)

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