2025 Open Championship odds, DFS picks: Is this Jon Rahm’s best opportunity to win?

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The final major championship of the PGA Tour season comes to us from the beautiful coast of Northern Ireland, with Royal Portrush Golf Club in County Antrim hosting the 2025 Open Championship.

Royal Portrush last hosted the Open Championship in 2019 when Shane Lowry set records on a soft course. The players will be playing the Dunluce Links course, which is overlooked by the ruins of Dunluce Castle. The beauty of the golf course will be tough to capture on camera without a panoramic view of the hills of Donegal to the west and the Isle of Islay to the north. The course is regularly rated one of the top 100 golf courses in the world and among the top 10 golf courses outside the United States.

Royal Portrush hosted the 2012 Irish Open, which was historically significant as the first Irish Open to be held in Northern Ireland since 1953.

In 2019, Rory McIlroy showed why Royal Portrush can be a difficult test of your entire game. McIlroy struggled in his first round at the Open Championship that year and ended up missing the cut by one stroke on a course that means a lot to him. He looks to be in a better head space as he heads into this year’s Open Championship with the career grand slam under his belt and back-to-back top-six finishes in his last two tournaments.

Royal Portrush demands a variety of golf shots off the tee. You can’t just hit your stock baby fade and expect not to get punished by the runoffs in some spots. You will get unlucky in some instances by hitting a good shot that ends up in a fairway pot bunker. The way you recover from those bad breaks will make all the difference. Players need to be committed and accurate off the tee. They need to be able to use a variety of shots around the green and have control of their ball from the bunkers, and they will have to avoid three putts. Another major factor will be the way players lag putt on greens that are very different from the ones they face on the PGA Tour.

My model will not factor in distance off the tee or swing speed as much as it has recently. Driving accuracy, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained from the sand and strokes gained on approach from 150, 200, and 225-plus will all be factored heavily.

2025 Open Championship odds

Course information

Course: Royal Portrush Golf Club

Location: County Antrim, Northern Ireland

Designer: Harry Colt

Par: 71

Length: 7,381 yards

Average green size: 5,700 square feet

Past champions: 2024 Xander Schauffele, 2023 Brian Harman, 2022 Cameron Smith, 2021 Collin Morikawa, 2019 Shane Lowry (at Royal Portrush), 2018 Francesco Molinari, 2017 Jordan Spieth, 2016 Henrik Stenson, 2015 Zach Johnson, 2014 Rory McIlroy

Betting slip

Jon Rahm (+1200) finished T11 here in 2019 and was in a solid position to make a run on Sunday before faltering with a Sunday 75 that sent him outside of the top 10. He has three top-seven finishes at the Open Championship since 2019, and he has gained strokes across the board in his last two Open Championships. He is going to win an Open Championship during his career, and this might be his best opportunity. He finished second at LIV Andalucia after a furious comeback on Sunday. He gained strokes across the board for the week and looked to be in complete control of his game.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) had a run of six straight made cuts and three top-10 finishes at the Open Championship before missing the cut last year at Royal Troon. He has been trending towards a win for a while now, before a faulty putter kept him out of contention at the Scottish Open last week. Fleetwood finished second here in 2019 after failing to make up ground on Shane Lowry on Sunday.

Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) has been a factor in every major championship this year. He contended at the Masters and the U.S. Open and was among the leaders on Thursday at the PGA Championship before falling back. He finished T6 here in 2019, and he has been in decent form on the LIV Golf Tour. He is driving it longer than he ever has, but that won’t help him here. His ability from the bunker and around the greens is what has me excited about his chances.

Xander Schauffele (+2500) has been inconsistent for most of the season. He has struggled with his putter and has been hit-or-miss with his driver. He popped last week with his irons by gaining over nine strokes on approach. He is just a little bit off with his putter, but he doesn’t look lost like Daniel Berger looks right now. Schauffele is the defending Open Champion, and he has never missed a cut at this tournament. His ability to hit multiple shots off the tee and his excellent hands around the green mean he will be a factor more often than not.

Justin Thomas (+5000) hasn’t lost a stroke putting since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he seems to be rounding his game into form over the last few weeks. He won the RBC Heritage almost out of nowhere after struggling with his irons at the Masters. He slumped from the PGA Championship to the U.S. Open, but turned it around at the Travelers, where he looked more in control of his golf ball off the tee and on approach. His best finish at an Open Championship was here in 2019 with a T11. I don’t know if his shot shape is right for an Open Championship, but his around-the-green game can make up for a lot of mistakes.

DFS plays

Scottie Scheffler ($14,200) has two top-eight finishes at Open Championships and only finished T7 at Royal Troon after gaining over 14.4 strokes from tee to green for the week. Scheffler has the iron shots and can play in the wind with anyone, but the slow greens seem to be his kryptonite. He finished close to dead last in putting at the Scottish Open and finished T8 while gaining over 10.8 strokes from tee to green on the field. He could be the game theory play of the week if he finishes first or second this week. You get the best ball-striker in the field and hope he finally figures out how to putt on these greens. I’m going to be underweight and only use him in a handful of lineups.

Rory McIlroy ($11,500) famously missed the cut here in 2019 after being the pre-tournament story all week. He proved the old saying that you can’t win a tournament on Thursday, but you can lose it. He comes into this week in a better frame of mind than he has been since he won the career grand slam at the 2025 Masters. He needed to reevaluate his goals and his motivations, and he seems to have focused a lot of his efforts on this week. He struggled with his driver on Thursday at the Scottish Open, but settled down the rest of the week and made up for it on the greens, where he has gained almost 14 strokes combined over his last two tournaments. Most of my teams will have McIlroy as the highest-priced player or even paired with Jon Rahm when I can afford it.

Jon Rahm ($10,400) See above.

Xander Schauffele ($9,700) See above.

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,500) See above.

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,900) See above.

Justin Thomas ($8,500) See above.

Viktor Hovland ($8,300) has one glaring hole in his game, but it won’t keep me from rostering him this week. Hovland has been lights out with his approach game of late. He has gained over 6.3 strokes on approach in three straight tournaments, which even includes a withdrawal through injury at the Travelers. He has three top-13 finishes at the Open Championship in his career.

Russell Henley ($7,900) has struggled over most of his career at the Open Championship before a fifth-place finish last year at Royal Troon. Henley has driving accuracy and has been striking the ball really well lately, gaining over 11 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments. His chip-in at the Travelers helped all of my One-and-Done teams and won’t be forgotten if I end up cashing a decent finish. I’m going to play Fitzpatrick more this week, but Henley is a nice pivot.

Matt Fitzpatrick ($7,800) was in the mix for a decent finish at Royal Portrush in 2019 before fading on Sunday to a T20. He has been in excellent form lately, and by contending at the Scottish Open on Saturday and Sunday, he helped me cash a nice hedge ticket on my New Jersey native fave, Chris Gotterup. Fitzpatrick has gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the green in three straight tournaments. With his $900 price drop from the Scottish Open and his T4 finish, I expect him to be very popular this week, and that won’t keep me away.

Jordan Spieth ($7,700) has the new-baby boost going into this week. Spieth is among the leaders in the field when it comes to strokes gained at Open Championships and hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 in one since 2016. His erratic driving will get him in some trouble this week, but he has all the shots and creativity to recover. His WD at the Travelers is a bit of a worry, but not enough to fade him this week.

Hideki Matsuyama ($7,600) is all about price this week. He hasn’t played that well at Open Championships and missed the cut here in 2019, but his price is so inviting when you look at how he stacks up in my model. He’s a big value play with his around-the-green game despite his penchant for three-putting on slow greens.

Sepp Straka ($7,400) was a glaring miss for everyone I talked to in DFS golf last week at the Scottish Open. After missing the cut at St Andrews, he finished T2 and T22 the last two years at the Open Championship. He is having his best ever year on the PGA Tour and is coming off a week where he gained over 10 strokes combined around and on the greens at the Scottish Open. He’s a massive value at this price. Sam Burns will be one of the guys you may pivot to at this price, but I’m more comfortable with Straka than Burns this week.

Adam Scott ($7,300) has missed one cut at an Open Championship since finishing second in 2012. He has two top 15 finishes in the last three years. He is in excellent form coming in, gaining over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments. His around-the-green game has been a little inconsistent, which is why he doesn’t sit higher in my model.

Cameron Young ($7,200) has three straight made cuts and two top-eight finishes in his three tries at the Open Championship. He has been playing better lately with two top-four finishes in his last four tournaments. His ability to hit different shot shapes gives him an excellent chance to outproduce his price in DFS.

Patrick Reed ($7,100) had his best ever finish at an Open Championship here in 2019. His hands and imagination around the greens and from the bunkers are an advantage here. He won LIV Dallas while losing 1.5 strokes on the greens, which shows how well he played from tee to green. He missed the cut at the BMW International Open his next time out, but looked pretty good last week at the LIV Andalucia.

Ryan Fox ($7,100) finished T16 here in 2019 and has three out of his last four cuts at the Open Championship. He started out great at the Scottish Open last week before having a tough weekend that saw him fall all the way down to a T65 finish. The putter killed him, and that’s understandable given the greens’ condition, as you heard from the players after the tournament.

Cameron Smith ($6,800) has missed the cut in four straight major championships, but has gained strokes on approach, around the green and with his putter in each of his last two tournaments. He was among the leaders here in 2019 before struggling on Sunday, and could be a nice surprise at this price with his around-the-green and putting game.

Tom Kim ($6,600) has gained over 12 strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments. He seems to be comfortable on links golf courses and shouldn’t be overlooked this week.

Rickie Fowler ($6,500) gained strokes across the board at the John Deere Classic and hasn’t missed a cut at the Open Championship since 2013. He has three top-six finishes at Open Championships, including here in 2019. I’m going to sprinkle in Fowler where I have too much exposure to other players in this price range.

Byeong Hun An ($6,400) hasn’t missed a cut at an Open Championship since 2017 and has three straight top-26 finishes. He has been awful with the putter lately, losing over 11 strokes in his last two tournaments. He’s driving it great and has been good around the green. He will need his irons to be better than they were at the Scottish Open, but I may put him in one or two lineups.

Harry Hall ($6,400) has seven straight top-25 finishes and is playing in his first Open Championship. That doesn’t seem possible. He has gained over 1.4 strokes around the green in four straight and is one of the best putters in the world.

Harris English ($6,400) is only priced this low because of his career record at Open Championships. His best finish was a T15 back in 2013. He has been excellent this year, including at major championships, so it will be tough to ignore his form at this price.

Tom McKibbin ($6,300) is a Northern Ireland native and is coming off back-to-back top-five finishes on the LIV Golf Tour. McKibbin is a great driver of the golf ball and has been in control of his entire game this year.

Maverick McNealy ($6,100) has had six top-10 finishes since his win in November. McNealy hasn’t made a cut at an Open Championship in his two tries, but looked solid last week at the Scottish Open and looks to be taking steps to becoming a top-20 player in the world.

Marco Penge ($6,000) carried all of my DFS teams last week with his T2 finish. He is an excellent driver who happens to have some decent hands around the green. He has gained over three strokes around the green in three of his last four tournaments, and he gained over four strokes on the greens at the Scottish Open.

Jordan L. Smith ($5,900) has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three straight tournaments, and he has gained over seven strokes combined around the greens over that same time frame. He has made two out of four cuts at Open Championships.

Kristoffer Reitan ($5,900) continued his excellent form at the Scottish Open last week, gaining over 7.4 strokes from tee to green. He has never teed it up at an Open Championship before, but he seems to have the type of form that could overcome the butterflies.

Daniel Brown ($5,800) won his last time out at the BMW International Open, and he has made the cut in each of his two tries at the Open Championship.

John Catlin ($5,700) is an accurate driver of the golf ball and hits a ton of greens in regulation. He is playing on a lot of tours right now, and his putter can give him some issues from time to time. It cost him at the 2025 PGA Championship, where he missed the cut. He finished T16 last year at Royal Troon.

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(Photo of Jon Rahm: Angel Martinez / Getty Images)

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