Major championship season wraps up this week in Northern Ireland as The Open commences at Royal Portrush. With golf’s best converging in the United Kingdom for the second week in a row and Portrush hosting for the third time in course history, the key question everyone’s asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win the 153rd playing of The Open Championship, the oldest golf tournament in the world.
With an exceptional field featuring the best professionals in the world, the final major championship of 2025 should be an epic ride from Thursday’s first round through the awarding of the Claret Jug on Sunday. Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear 9/2 favorite atop the odds board, but Rory McIlroy — in his homecoming — is not far behind. Scheffler remains on an all-time run across the last few seasons, and with a PGA Championship in tow, he has an opportunity to complete the third leg of the career grand slam this week.
McIlroy consummated that historic achievement three months ago at the Masters, his first major win in a over a decade. Now returning home, the Ulsterman has an opportunity to overcome the severe disappointment he experienced six years ago when he ejected on the first hole and missed the cut at Royal Portrush.
Joining that duo in receiving an enhanced level of attention this week is Jon Rahm, who has yet to win since joining LIV Golf but remains playing quality golf. Whether Rahm can put it all together and add a Claret Jug to his collection remains to be seen, but he may be entering this tournament more equipped to win a major than in any other attempt this season. Elsewhere, keep an eye on Irishman Shane Lowry, Scotsman Robert MacIntyre and Englishman Tommy Fleetwood. All have showcased the game to get it done at a course like Royal Portrush with Lowry serving as the last Champion Golfer of the Year at this course in 2019.
So, what is going to happen at Royal Portrush this week? Let’s take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts as we attempt to project who will win — and what will go down — at the final major championship of the season.
2025 Open Championship picks, expert predictions
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner — Tyrrell Hatton (33-1): He was the preseason pick, and we are not wavering in our belief. Hatton had his chance at the U.S. Open before a bogey-bogey finish to wind up T4 at Oakmont. He has since added a quality outing on LIV Golf. His links golf résumé is stellar with three wins in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and a couple of solid runs in this championship, including a T6 in 2019 at Royal Portrush.
Sleeper — Maverick McNealy (110-1): The American has struck out in his prior two Opens, but McNealy has made it known that he loves to play golf along the water. Some of his best results come on seaside coastal golf courses, and this year, he finally brings his game across the pond along with his affinity for the challenge. McNealy put together a solid showing at the Scottish Open and has made the cut in the first three majors this season. I reckon he does a little better than that this week and jumps onto the first or second page of the leaderboard.
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: Tried to get fancy at the U.S. Open, but if the free space is given to you on the bingo card, then you should use it. Scheffler has seven top-25 finishes in his eight starts on links golf courses, and Royal Portrush may be the best fit for his game. The topography, the added moisture in the land and the undulations in the greens don’t scream traditional links golf, but they scream a great fit for Scheffler’s game. He remains a beast from tee to green, and if he putts well — which he has not done in Europe — he will be in with a chance come late Sunday.
Star who definitely won’t win — Ludvig Åberg: Justin Thomas may have fallen out of star category, so we’ll pick on Åberg instead. The Swedish superstar is making a lot of young man’s mistakes at the moment — chasing sucker pins, failing to get easy up-and-downs in for par, etc. He’s like watching the fastest F1 car on the track but knowing something is going to awry at some point in the race. What little major championship experience he does have has not been good outside of Augusta National.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Jon Rahm: Scheffler finishes inside the top five, Rahm inside the top 10 and McIlroy finds a way into the top 20 thanks to a strong final round that will get the local Northern Ireland crowd ready to roar as the leaders tee off on Sunday. The world No. 1’s game is primed for this challenge as a second-shot golf course that requires a flair of creativity which he is often not given his flowers for. Meanwhile, many eyes will be on Rahm as a trendy pick to win given his form and links golf experience. From tee to green as a whole, he just is not quite as sharp as Scheffler as it stands which puts him second among this trio ahead of McIlroy, whose ball striking has been mixed lately.
Surprise prediction — Jordan Spieth contends: LEROY JENKINS! He is the man who possesses the lowest cumulative score to par in Open history. He is the man who possesses seven straight top-25 finishes in this tournament. He is the man who has never missed the cut in his Open career. If there is ever a tournament for Spieth to turn back the clock, it is this one. He was in fine form before a withdrawal at the Travelers Championship, and if he is able to pick up where he left off, he will be able to pick this place apart.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Winner — Jon Rahm (12-1): Rahm is in really good form right now. He’s even starting to look like his old self again at the majors. He finished second last week at LIV Golf Andalucía in his tune-up event in Spain and has back-to-back top 10s at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Now he heads to The Open where he’s been terrific in recent years with three top 10s in the last four years (including a runner-up and a T3), and this week will be his time to add a Claret Jug to his collection.
Sleeper — Cameron Young (80-1): Young has two top 10 finishes in three Open starts and is coming off a T4 at the U.S. Open, as he’s started showing signs of life again after some struggles early in the year. He’s always been a guy that seems to find his best stuff at the majors, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with a late tee time on Sunday.
Top 10 lock — Jordan Spieth: Lock is a strong word here, but my favorite top 10 bet this week is Spieth at 9/2. He has five top 10s in 11 starts at the Open and hasn’t finished outside the top 25 since 2016. There’s certainly some concern about his neck injury, but if he’s full strength, I expect him to be a contender this week as the Open brings out the best in his game.
Star who definitely won’t win — Bryson DeChambeau: DeChambeau’s game just doesn’t align well with links golf. He’s a high ball hitter, which is part of why he’s so good at U.S. Opens where his superpower is being able to stop the ball on those greens. The Open requires you to flight your ball and play a ground game, and he’s never quite figured out that formula with one top 10 in his career (T8 in 2022) and no other finishes better than T33.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Jon Rahm: I’ve got Rahm winning, so we’ll roll with the Spaniard here. McIlroy will perform well this time in his home Open, and Scheffler is a walking top 10, but I just feel like it’s Rahm’s time. Ideally, all three of these guys will be in the mix on Sunday.
Surprise prediction — Dean Burmester first round leader (90-1): Burmester was in the top 5 after 36 holes last year, and I could see the South African putting together a low score in the early going and leaping to the top of the leaderboard before eventually fading away over the course of 72 holes.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 271 (-13)
Winner’s Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Adam Silverstein, senior director of editorial
Winner — Rory McIlroy (7-1): Is McIlroy the best value? No. Is there a possibility he either ejects (like in 2019) or never comes close to contention due to the pressure that will be squarely on his shoulders? Absolutely. What’s also true is that McIlroy has a greater familiarity with Royal Portrush than anyone else playing in The Open, he set the course record (61) when he was 16 years old, and he just finished second at the Scottish Open where none of the other Open favorites came within four shots of the Ulsterman. As was the case with the Masters this year, I have no desire to be on the wrong side of McIlroy making history.
Sleeper — Jordan Spieth (60-1): Forget his level of play lately, He’s on a three-year winning drought without a top 10 at a major since the 2023 Masters, but Spieth comes alive on links courses. He also has four top 10s this season and a little extra pep in his step after his wife gave birth to their third child. Some may be concerned about the neck injury that pushed Spieth out of the Travelers Championship, but that was literally the first time he had withdrawn from an event in his entire career. At odds this great, Spieth is absolutely a sleeper — one worth taking.
Top 10 lock — Scottie Scheffler: While The Open may be his “worst” major, if there’s one thing Scheffler does, it’s learn from his mistakes. That’s not to suggest he plays poorly in this tournament — his four career starts resulted in finishes of T8, T1, T23 and T7 — but rather he has not perfected links golf like he has Augusta National or courses in the PGA Championship rotation. Still, there is no one easier to trust as a contention lock than Scheffler. Even if he gets off to a rough start, he’ll pile on the birdies over the weekend for a backdoor finish.
Star who definitely won’t win — Bryson DeChambeau: He’s the easy and correct pick for his space both due to his name and frustrating play on links courses. Outside of a single top 10 in 2022, he has never finished better than T33 at The Open, missing three cuts in seven starts. That’s not someone you back no matter how much you may like his YouTube videos. Here’s a bonus: Jon Rahm. I’m far less confident in singling him out, but it’s important to remember this category is not suggesting the picks won’t play well but rather that they will not win. Rahm has been doing a lot of not winning on LIV Golf, and the competition is even deeper in Northern Ireland.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Rory McIlroy vs. Jon Rahm: If you cannot tell already, the order of operations here is crystal clear: McIlroy on top followed by Scheffler inside the top 10 and Rahm probably around the top 15. If Scheffler is outside the top 10 but inside the top 20 entering the weekend, consider a play as there should finally be a level of value created for him.
Surprise prediction — : Burmester was in the top 5 after 36 holes last year, and I could see the South African putting together a low score in the early going and leaping to the top of the leaderboard before eventually fading away over the course of 72 holes.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 270 (-14)
Winner’s Sunday score: 69 (-2)
Who will win the Open Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 15 golf majors, including the past four Masters, and is up over $8,500 since June 2020.
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