The sports world is officially in its lull with the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game in the books and no MLB action until Friday. The WNBA offers some interesting action Wednesday night before hitting its own All-Star break, while the Open Championship starts Thursday at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. With the light schedule, it’s the perfect time to start thinking about NFL betting, particularly the plays worth making before major attention turns toward the Week 1 spreads and the value available on certain teams.
I have already locked in my favorite Week 1 play over at SportsLine, where I am 718-623-37 on against the spread picks since the start of 2017. However, there are a few games that I think the market will see and hop on a particular side, moving the line to a less profitable number for bettors who wait. While these picks could certainly be impacted by injuries in camp and preseason, I’m making them based on how I believe the perception of the teams involved in each game will adjust as the NFL preview industry gets in full swing over the next seven weeks.
Texans at Rams pick
The Rams defense was excellent down the stretch, holding their opponents to single digits in four of their last six games including the playoffs, where the Vikings managed just nine points against them. The Texans traded their left tackle, leaving the offensive line as a major issue heading into the year and a poor matchup for this talented young Rams front.
On the other side of the ball, Davante Adams joins Puka Nacua at receiver for the Rams, and the Texans defense isn’t likely to shut down the Matthew Stafford-led attack. However, there’s a real chance that happens to the Texans offense if it can’t adequately protect C.J. Stroud, or if the team’s two rookie receivers aren’t ready to make an immediate impact.
This is a game that features some -2.5s and some -3s, and I could see it moving to the other side of -3 by the time we get to kickoff. At the very least, I don’t expect -2.5 to be available as most people start to think about Week 1 bets.
Steelers at Jets pick
In order for a road team to be favored by a full field goal in Week 1 when there’s so much uncertainty on the quality of teams around the league, there has to be absolute confidence that the favorite is a rock-solid contender and/or the underdog is among the worst teams in the league. We can say that in Bengals-Browns, where Cincy is a 5.5-point favorite. Arizona is a similar favorite in Cardinals-Saints.
Steelers-Jets is nowhere near that level of mismatch for me, even granting that the spread is a few points lower. I’m not even sure the Steelers are the better team after the two squads swapped quarterbacks, as it seems like both franchises would’ve preferred to have Justin Fields under center. The Steelers have an elite defense, but so did the Jets prior to last year, and a lot of those players remain on the roster and are getting a fresh start after the tumult of the last two years.
The one place the Steelers have a major advantage is in coaching, as Mike Tomlin is a perennial winner while Aaron Glenn is in the lead position for the first time. But that doesn’t negate the fact that the Jets have more collective talent, which I think the market hasn’t realized, or home-field advantage. I wouldn’t be surprised if this got bet down to around pick ’em.
Vikings at Bears pick
This one is a bit more speculative on my part and involves what I expect the narrative to be come August. There should be a lot of excitement around the Bears with Ben Johnson taking over as head coach, and any positive news we see out of camp and joint practice about the offense will push expectations even higher. People will also be reassured when optimism bleeds through about the rebuilt offensive line as well as any buzz around the team’s top two picks, both of whom boost an impressive stable of pass-catchers.
The Vikings have their own rebuilt offensive line that could lead to optimism, but I think everyone’s attention will be focused on how J.J. McCarthy looks running the offense. Last year, the market pegged the Vikings as a 6.5-win team heading into the season with the expectation McCarthy would start, and coming off a major injury that cost him the entire season, I don’t see why things should be much different this year, especially not just because Sam Darnold had a huge season in this offseason.
This line is a soft -1.5 right now, which would normally indicate it’s heading the other way toward pick ’em. But I see the Bears as being a preseason darling that will eventually take action in the market and push this one the other way up towards -3.
Raiders at Patriots pick
The futures market has been aggressively optimistic so far with the Patriots. We looked at the collective spreads for every team across the entire season back in May, and the Patriots were tied for the 14th-strongest team with the Cardinals ahead of the Texans, Vikings, Seahawks and Bears while favored by one point aggregated across their schedule.
Drake Maye had his moments last season, but the Patriots still finished 30th in points scored and 31st in yards gained with the rookie making 12 starts. The Patriots went out and made several additions to hopefully fix their offensive line issues, but Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses weren’t the answers for their previous teams where O-line performance was also a problem, while rookie left tackle Will Campbell has yet to prove he can handle NFL pass rushers, and the Raiders may be a tough place to start.
The Raiders were at a similar level as the Patriots last year, but upgrading to Geno Smith at quarterback is a more impactful move than anything the Patriots have done this offseason, including hiring Mike Vrabel as coach. It feels like both these teams collectively got better this offseason, but the Patriots are receiving far more credit for doing so. I don’t think this game kicks off on the key number of -3.
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