The Milwaukee Bucks needed a Game 3 home victory to give themselves a chance to come back to knock off the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA playoffs, and they did just that with a 117-101 win on Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 37 points and 12 rebounds on Friday and is averaging 35.7 points and 14 rebounds per game this postseason. With a points + rebounds total of 46.5 on sportsbooks like DraftKings and BetMGM for Sunday NBA props, should you expect him to continue his series trends and go Over when making NBA prop bets?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
LeBron James Over 5.5 assists (-105)
Although James has gone Under this number in two of three games this series, the future NBA Hall of Famer was sixth in the league at 8.2 assists per game this season. Despite being the NBA all-time leading scorer, James is also one of the most impressive passers in history and he often displays that during the postseason. James has averaged more than 5.5 assists in each of his previous 17 postseasons, including 8.8 assists per game last postseason, which led all NBA playoff players.
The Lakers are 2.5-point road underdogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday, and the 40-year-old has been at his best with creating for others in those opportunities. He’s gone Over his assists total in nine of his last 10 games as a road underdog, averaging 8.9 assists per game. The Lakers need to steal a game on the road to regain homecourt advantage, entering Sunday down 2-1 in the series, so expect an elite performance from James on Sunday, which includes getting the best of his teammates. Bet365 is offering James Over 5.5 assists at -105 odds, while other sportsbooks have juiced the odds to -120 or greater.
Paolo Banchero Under 34.5 points + assists (-110)
The Magic remain home for Game 4 and are coming off a 95-93 victory in Orlando with a low-scoring, slow-paced contest leading to their first victory of the series. After allowing 106 ppg in two road losses to open the series, the Magic will likely try to repeat their Game 3 formula and game plan. Although that may bode well for their chances of winning, it doesn’t for Banchero’s Overs. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft went Over this number in two of three games this postseason, but not in Game 3 in Orlando when he had 29 points and one assist. He averaged 25.9 points and 4.8 assists (30.7 combined) this season.
Banchero has gone Under his points + assists total in four of his last five home games, averaging 28.4 points + assists over that span. DraftKings is offering this play at -110 odds, while other betting apps have placed his Under at -120 odds or higher.
Damian Lillard Over 23.5 points + rebounds (-110)
Lillard is playing his third game since missing a month with a blood clot and although he’s averaged just 10.5 points and 3.0 rebounds over his first two games, he’s played at least 32 minutes in each contest and has been aggressive with his shot. Lillard has shown rust, shooting 24% from the field and 18.8% on 3-pointers, but Sunday could be the game to change that. Lillard averaged 24.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per game this season and he’s averaged at least 24 ppg in each of the last 10 seasons.
The model projects Lillard for 25.6 points and 4.5 rebounds on Sunday and he’s gone Over his total points + rebounds in four of his last five home games as a favorite against a team ranking in the middle-third in team defense. The Pacers are 17th in scoring defense (115 ppg) and Lillard is averaging 28.2 points + rebounds per game over those five contests. BetMGM is offering this at -110 odds.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Sunday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Jason La Canfora’s picks. He’s 38-22 (+1352) over his last 60 NBA over/under picks and he already had one locked in for Sunday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Larry Hartstein, who is 42-21 (+1580) over his last 63 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Hartstein is including in his NBA player prop picks for Sunday, which includes a pick on the Pistons’ young superstar.
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