There are seven games on the Thursday MLB schedule that start at 2:35 p.m. ET or earlier, but there are also four that begin after 6:30 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is among the teams playing on Thursday night, and star slugger Kyle Schwarber is one home run behind a trio of players for the MLB lead. Schwarber has homered in back-to-back games against Washington to give him nine this season. He is +240 in the MLB home run odds at BetMGM to go yard for a third straight game.
Schwarber has the shortest MLB odds of any player at most sportsbooks, so should you include him in your MLB home run bets? With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks.
The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 17-11 roll on all top-rated MLB picks since the start of the season. It nailed all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, cashing a +9360 parlay. The model has nailed home run props in 13 of the last 24 days and is up 28.6 units during that stretch. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. These three picks can also be parlayed for +15580 odds and would pay out $779 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
James Wood, Nationals (+450)
Wood joins Schwarber among the group of players with nine home runs this season after going yard against the Mets on Monday. The outfielder has a .950 OPS with six homers against right-handed pitchers and is starting to emerge as a true star. He is facing Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker, who allowed 24 home runs in 83.2 innings last season.
“I think we are getting a solid price on Wood to hit a HR because Walker has been really solid, but I expect some regression in terms of his home run allowed numbers,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. BetMGM has the best price at +450.
Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+400)
Jose Ramirez is known as the home run hitter for Cleveland, but Manzardo currently has three more homers than Ramirez this season. Manzardo homered against Minnesota on Tuesday, giving him eight long balls in 2025. The designated hitter is facing Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who is allowing lefties to hit .381 against him.
“There’s something about day games this season for Manzardo,” Fetner said. “Manzardo has a 1.195 OPS in 11 day games with 6 HRs in those games compared to a .635 OPS and 2 HRs in 16 night games.”
Christian Yelich, Brewers (+540)
Yelich hit his fifth home run of the season on April 22, and he is looking to get back on track following a pair of hitless games. He finished with 11 home runs last season, but he only played in 73 games due to injury. The veteran has a favorable pitching matchup, and the model sets this line at +380, so this price offers strong value.
“The model loves this matchup for Yelich against Sean Burke, as Yelich has a .888 OPS against RHPs and has hit all 5 of his HRs vs. RHPS, while Sean Burke is allowing 2.3 HR/9 which ranks towards the bottom of the league in terms of home run prevention,” Fetner said. FanDuel is offering +540, which is significantly better than the +390 at DraftKings.
More MLB picks for Thursday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Thursday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on an 86-40 roll on baseball picks. Still craving more? SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is 17-11 over his last 28 MLB ATS picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Thursday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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