Betting Notebook: 2025 NFL Season Opener – Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

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The 2025 NFL Schedule will be released this week, which means key matchups are starting to trickle out before the complete schedule debuts, including the season opener, which has been set between two NFC East rivals — the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles. And with that announcement comes betting lines that we can start to break down.

We’re back.

With the game being nearly four months out, the prop market isn’t all fleshed out yet, but I’ll break down the game like I broke down every matchup last year in the betting notebook, looking at both sides of the ball in detail and finishing out with some preliminary bets that I like with the lines that are already available. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -7, 46.5 total)

• The Eagles won in blowout fashion twice last season against Dallas, though both games came later in the season with Cooper Rush behind center for the Cowboys after Dak Prescott went down with a hamstring injury that cost him most of the season.
  • Week 10: Eagles 34, Cowboys 6
  • Week 17: Eagles 41, Cowboys 7
• In his last fully healthy season in 2023, Prescott put himself in the MVP conversation with the second-highest PFF passing grade in the NFL (89.8), and the Cowboys ranked second in EPA per play behind only the juggernaut that was the San Francisco 49ers.
  • Those impressive 2023 numbers came with a thin wide receiver corps behind CeeDee Lamb, with an aging Brandin Cooks ranked second among the Cowboys’ wide receivers in targets (82)
• Dallas acquired George Pickens after the 2025 NFL Draft to add a legitimate threat on the outside … Pickens is the vertical X-threat that this offense needed to complement Lamb.
  • Prescott had the second-most passing yards in the NFL in 2023 on throws charted as vertical lead, over-the-shoulder or vertical back-shoulder passes. Over the last three seasons, Pickens ranks first in the NFL in receiving yards on those throw types despite a less-than-ideal quarterback situation in Pittsburgh.
• On paper, the Eagles’ defense isn’t as strong as it was last season, losing key starters along the defensive line (Milton Williams and Josh Sweat) and in the secondary (Darius Slay and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson).
• Even with some of the losses along the defensive line for the Eagles, the bigger concerns for the Dallas’ offense in this matchup are A) can the offensive line hold up in pass protection after ranking 24th in PFF pass-pro grade as a unit in 2024 and B) can Dallas get anything going on the ground?
• The Cowboys found some level of consistency in their run game late in the season with Rico Dowdle, but Dowdle is out and the Cowboys will be hoping that one of (or a collection of) their low-cost additions to the backfield — Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders in addition to rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah — can emerge as reliable options.
• While there was significant turnover on the Eagles defense, their offense remains intact from a season ago, returning all of their starters.
  • One of the clear advantages in this matchup is the Eagles’ rushing offense against the Cowboys’ run defense.
    • Dallas ranked 28th in average yards allowed per run play (4.1) in 2024 and didn’t make any significant additions to rectify that. Its two bigger defensive line additions (Dante Fowler Jr. and Donovan Ezeiruaku) provide more help getting after the quarterback, and it’s unlikely that the Kenneth Murray Jr. and Jack Sanborn additions at linebacker make the Cowboys a significantly harder defense to run against.
    • In two games against the Cowboys, Barkley ran 45 times for 233 yards and Hurts added seven carries for 56 yards in the one game he played.
• There’s also a strong chance that Dallas will be shorthanded in Week 1 due to several injuries carrying over from last season to Trevon Diggs, Demarvion Overshown and rookie cornerback Shavon Revel, who will begin training camp on the PUP list. It’s a difficult spot for new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to be in against one of the more talented offenses in the NFL.
  • As was the case with many teams against Philadelphia last season, the Cowboys’ gameplan will need to be to stop the run enough that they can get the Eagles into passing situations, where they will hope one of the NFL’s better pass rushes can get home.
    • Cowboys’ pressure rate in weeks Parsons played in 2024: 36% (8th in NFL)
      • The offseason additions of Fowler and Ezeiraku give Dallas a more talented edge rotation in 2025 on paper
    • Jalen Hurts PFF passing grade when pressured: 34.0 (Fourth worst)
• We’re still a long way out from this game being played, but my initial lean is to take the points with Dallas. If Prescott is healthy and this offense can get back closer to its 2023 form with another viable threat on the outside in Pickens, a full touchdown is enticing, even with the expected advantage when Philadelphia’s offense faces the Cowboys’ defense.
  • As a bonus, Jake Ferguson’s anytime touchdown odds at +360 are intriguing. With Prescott at quarterback since 2023, Ferguson ranks a clear second on the team in total (142) and red-zone targets (25), and this is a game where Dallas may need to have a higher pass volume to have a chance to win.

Angles that I like: Dallas Cowboys +7

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