Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Braves starter against Nationals at plus odds

Two teams look to extend lengthy winning streaks in a pair of doubleheaders that highlight Wednesday’s 17-game schedule. The Minnesota Twins aim for their ninth consecutive victory when they visit the Baltimore Orioles for two contests, while the St. Louis Cardinals enter their twin bill against the host Philadelphia Phillies having won nine in a row. The Twins, who swept a three-game home series against the Orioles last week, have Bailey Ober (4-1, 3.50 ERA) slated to start the opener of their doubleheader. Sonny Gray (4-1, 3.50) is expected to take the mound in the nightcap for the Cardinals, who won two of three at home versus the Phillies earlier this season.

Sportsbooks have set Ober’s total strikeout player prop at 5.5 (Over -109, Under -118), while Gray’s is also 5.5 (Over -125, Under -106). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Ober Over 5.5 as a 3-star play on its five-star scale and has not rated Gray’s prop.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday’s 17-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars that would pay plus-money, one at 4.5 stars and two others at 4 stars. Here they are:

Hunter Dobbins Over 4.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Tigers (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

Dobbins, who is making his fifth major-league start, has gone Over this number in three of his first four. The 25-year-old right-handed rookie recorded six strikeouts across six innings in two of his last three turns, including one against the Kansas City Royals last Friday. Dobbins will be facing a lineup that fans often, as the Tigers rank fifth in the majors with 381 strikeouts.

Bryce Elder Over 4.5 strikeouts (+126) vs. Nationals (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Elder made five starts in April and did not go Over this number in any of them. The 25-year-old righty has increased his strikeout totals this month, however, registering six over five innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 4 and fanning eight batters across six frames versus the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out. Elder will be hoping to face Nathaniel Lowe several times on Wednesday, as Washington’s first baseman is tied for eighth in the majors with 50 strikeouts in 161 at-bats this season. 

Randy Vasquez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-133) vs. Angels (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 3.0 strikeouts

Vasquez has gone Under his projected strikeout total in six of his last seven starts. The 26-year-old Dominican right-hander has gone Over this number just once in eight turns this season. Even though the Angels are tied for first in the major leagues with 404 strikeouts and have whiffed 27 times in the first two contests of this three-game set at San Diego, the model does not see Vasquez matching the season high of five strikeouts he set over six innings against the Colorado Rockies in his last outing.

Gunnar Hoglund Over 4.5 strikeouts (+131) vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts

Hoglund began the season with Triple-A Las Vegas and made six starts, registering 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old righty was called up on May 2 and made his major-league debut that evening in Miami, where he fanned seven batters over six frames in a victory against the Marlins. Hoglund recorded only three strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings versus the Seattle Mariners in his next start, but he’ll be facing a Dodgers team that has struck out 353 times this year to rank 13th in the majors and seventh in the National League.