NCAA softball tournament: Is this the year Oklahoma is dethroned?

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After winning the past four national championships, followed by this year’s SEC regular-season title, it’s hardly surprising to see Oklahoma as the No. 2 seed in the upcoming NCAA softball tournament. The Sooners’ own head coach, however, did not expect her inexperienced squad to be sitting at 45-7 heading into its tourney opener Friday at home against Boston U.

“If you would ask me what I thought our record might be at the end of the season, I’d say 12 to 15 losses, something like that,“ eight-time national championship coach Patty Gasso told The Athletic. “This was a bigger shocker than anything I can remember feeling in a long time, the fact that in our first year (in the SEC) they pulled this off.”

Despite losing a renowned senior class that keyed those four straight titles — including record-setting hitters Jayda Coleman and Tiare Jennings and top pitcher Kelly Maxwell — OU finished first in a grueling conference that produced seven of the top eight seeds in this year’s tourney. Veterans Ella Parker and Kasidi Pickering hit north of .400, freshman Gabbie Garcia led the team in home runs (16) and Louisiana transfer Sam Landry (19-4 with a 2.04 ERA) developed into one of the nation’s premier pitchers.

OU fell behind 6-1 to Arkansas in the third inning of last Friday’s SEC tournament semifinal, got to within 6-5 by the sixth, then won 8-6 on Garcia’s walk-off three-run homer. It was the biggest comeback in SEC tourney history. The next day’s championship game against Texas A&M was rained out and the teams were named co-champions.

Despite Oklahoma’s impressive record and strong finish to the season, the consensus opinion in the softball world is that the Sooners are more vulnerable heading into this year’s tourney than they have been in several years. Four of their top eight hitters and two of their three regular pitchers are in their first year in the program.

“They’re still so capable of being the national champions again, but it’s not as clear cut,” said ESPN softball analyst Jessica Mendoza. “They have all this talent, but it’s a different team than we’ve seen the last four years.”

Oklahoma will certainly come in prepared after playing all but one conference series against teams that made the NCAAs. While it went 17-7 in conference play, it did lose three series, to teams now seeded No. 3 (Florida), No. 7 (Tennessee) and No. 15 (Alabama) in the NCAAs. Assuming the Sooners advance out of their regional, they could meet the Tide again the following weekend.

“It’s more wide-open than any other year that I can think of in coaching, and I’ve been doing this for over 30 years in Division I,” said longtime Tennessee coach Karen Weekly. “I’ve never seen it so up for grabs.”

The teams we think have the best shot to dethrone Oklahoma

No. 1 Texas A&M: Third-year coach Tricia Ford has built a program that last reached the WCWS in 2017 into the field’s No. 1 seed, a first in school history. First baseman Mya Perez first made a name for herself when she hit a game-tying three-run homer against Texas in last year’s super regional. Now she’s a first-team All-SEC slugger (.447, 14 HRs). Freshman KK Dement (13 HRs, 58 RBIs),  junior Amari Harper (.407) and senior Mac Barbara (10 HRs, 60 RBIs) lead a powerful lineup that run-ruled top-5 foe Texas 14-2 in the SEC semifinals.

Then there’s senior pitcher Emiley Kennedy (21-4, 2.68 ERA), who last year became A&M’s first left-handed All-American in 41 years.

“We went into the SEC tournament and run-ruled both our opponents (South Carolina and Texas), which normally doesn’t happen in the SEC,” said Kennedy. “We’re rolling as a unit, and I’m excited to see how we look in the postseason.”

No. 3 Florida: Coach Tim Walton has taken the Gators to the Women’s College World Series in Oklahoma City nine times since 2013, winning back-to-back titles 2014-15, so it was notable that Florida notched its first series win over a No. 1 team when it took two out of three from Oklahoma two weeks ago.

Seniors Kendra Falby (.439) and Reagan Walsh (13 HRs, 56 RBIs) have considerable postseason experience, while freshman Taylor Shumaker (18 HRs, 76 RBIs) wasted no time becoming Florida’s top slugger.

The Gators’ hitting is a bigger strength than their pitching. Last year’s freshman standout Keagan Rothrock missed a month to injury early in the season. She remains Walton’s first option (12-5, 3.34 ERA), but he’ll likely use Ava Brown (10-3, 2.66), Kara Hammock (9-1, 3.96) and freshman Katelynn Oxley (8-5, 2.59) as well.

No. 4 Arkansas: Senior Bri Ellis, a .299 hitter over her first three seasons (the first two at Auburn), exploded this season to become the potential National Player of the Year. Her absurd stat line includes a .475 average, 26 home runs, 72 RBIs, a national-best 1.189 slugging percentage and the sport’s highest OPS (1.838) since the stat was first tracked in 2016. The previous high belongs to Oklahoma legend Jocelyn Alo.

“It’s absolutely insane to be mentioned in the same sentence as some of these people I looked up to when I was growing up, and still look up to now,” said Ellis. “It’s not like I’m out there trying to have the highest OPS, it just kind of happened.”

Teammate Courtney Day has 16 homers and 62 RBIs of her own.

No. 5 Florida State: A lot of folks in the sport will be rooting for the ’Noles, whose Hall of Fame coach, Lonni Alameda, was diagnosed with breast cancer in March. She’s continued coaching while undergoing twice-a-week chemotherapy treatments that have taken her hair.

“She is the queen of the sport in terms of the coaches and players she’s influenced,” said Mendoza. “(The players) are fighting for her, and this feels like it could be a Cinderella story.”

Freshman pitcher Jazzy Francik (1.62 ERA) earned first-team All-ACC honors while sophomore shortstop Isa Torres hit .447. Fifth-year senior catcher Michaela Edenfield shone at the 2023 WCWS two years ago.

Florida State coach Lonni Alameda has continued to coach the Seminoles after being diagnosed with breast cancer. (Alicia Devine: Tallahassee Democrat / Imagn Images)

No. 6 Texas: After reaching the WCWS final in two of the past three years, coach Mike White’s team began this season at No. 1 and remained there in early April, when the ’Horns were 37-3. They’ve gone a disappointing 9-7 since, which included a three-game sweep by nemesis Oklahoma in late April.

But Texas could heat up again at any time thanks to proven stars such as All-American catcher Reese Atwood (.408, 17 HRs), senior star Mia Scott (.438) and sophomore pitcher Teagan Kavan (21-4, 2.46), who threw 14 consecutive scoreless innings in last year’s WCWS.

No. 7 Tennessee: A dominant pitcher can carry a team far in the postseason, and Tennessee has that in sophomore Karlyn Pickens (20-8, 0.92 ERA, 231 strikeouts). On March 24 against Arkansas, Pickens threw a rise ball to Arkansas’ Ellis that clocked 78.2 mph, breaking Monica Abbott’s record for the fastest in softball history.

“People don’t realize how hard it is to gain one mile an hour when you’re in the 70s,” said Weekly. “When she came here as a freshman, she was probably throwing 72, 73. To think that now she hit 78 — that’s unfathomable, really.”

Pickens and the Lady Vols could be tested right off the bat. The Knoxville regional includes Ohio State, which leads the country in home runs (137) and RBIs (450), and North Carolina, which boasts national RBI leader Katherine Rodriguez (83).

Karlyn Pickens logged a fastball this season that clocked in at a record 78.2 mph. (Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)

No. 9 UCLA: The Bruins have been flying under the radar this season while playing in the lesser-regarded Big Ten but are still a dangerous team that reached last year’s WCWS. Senior Savannah Pola (.439) and juniors Jordan Woolery (.416, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs) and Megan Grant (.379, 23 HRs, 73 RBIs) have all exploded at the plate, and pitcher Addisen Fisher (16-2, 2.43 ERA) was one of the top freshmen in the country.

“That’s a team that everyone forgot about because they’re in a conference we don’t see as much,” said Mendoza, “but they’ve got that swag and that ability. They’ve been there.”

No. 12 Texas Tech: The Red Raiders have never made the WCWS, much less won it, but they’ve got a shot this year for one simple reason: Pitcher NiJaree Canady. The reigning National Player of the Year took Stanford within one win of the final each of the past two seasons before Tech wooed her to Lubbock with a seven-figure NIL deal. She’s been virtually unhittable again as a junior, striking out 263 hitters in 181 innings, with an 0.81 ERA.

The Red Raiders shut out all three of their Big 12 tournament opponents, with Canady on the mound for 16.2 of their 19 innings.

NCAA softball schedule

Regionals: May 16-18 at the campuses of the top-16 seeds. Double elimination format.

Super regionals: May 22-25 at the campuses of the top eight remaining seeds. Two teams play a three-game series.

Women’s College World Series: May 29-June 6 in Oklahoma City. Double elimination until two teams remain. They play a three-game series.

(Top photo: David Buono / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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