The Florida Panthers will host the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6 of their 2025 Stanley Cup playoff conference semifinals round on Friday. The reigning Stanley Cup champions have a 3-2 edge in the series after dominating Game 5 in Toronto 6-1 on Wednesday. Puck drop at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. is at 8 p.m. ET.
Florida is a -243 favorite on the money line (risk $243 to win $100) in the latest Panthers vs. Maple Leafs odds, while Toronto is a +197 underdog (risk $100 to win $197). The over/under for total goals scored is 5.5, and the Panthers are also -1.5 (+115) on the puck line. Before making any Maple Leafs vs. Panthers picks, be sure to see the NHL predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times. It enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NHL playoffs a combined 79-55 on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks, returning more than $1,600 for $100 players. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, here are its best bets for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on Friday:
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-137)
Even with Florida blowing Game 5 wide open, the model is leaning on Toronto to make Friday’s game more of a nail-biter. Three of the five games in this series have been decided by one goal, with one game going into overtime. Four of those five games have also hit the Over on goals, which suggests another high-scoring game between these Atlantic Division rivals. The SportsLine model projects the Leafs will cover the puck line in almost 80% of simulations.
You’ve seen one of the best bets for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs on Friday. Now, get picks for every game from the model that enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NHL playoffs a combined 79-55 on top-rated NHL puck-line and over/under betting picks.
Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
Toronto’s top-line center has registered three or more shots on goal in all but one playoff game, and has tallied 20 shots total against the Panthers in this series. He is coming off of a six-shot effort in the Maple Leaf’s Game 5 loss and is expected to keep his foot on the gas.
Matthews to register over 3.5 shots on goal is listed at -115 at BetMGM Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses.
Want more NHL picks for Friday? Matt Severance is SportsLine’s No. 1 NHL expert, posting a 145-69-8 roll on NHL sides picks, returning over $4,000 for $100 players. See his best bet for Friday at SportsLine.
Matthew Tkachuk over 0.5 points (-110)
Tkachuk has four points in five games against Toronto in this series and has gotten on the scoresheet in three straight games. He tallied an assist in one regular-season meeting against the Leafs this year, which brings his total to five points in six games against Toronto for the year.
This player prop is listed at -110 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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