First 12-team College Football Playoff delivered massive success, but flawed seeding model must be addressed

When the 12-team College Football Playoff format was revealed nearly four years ago, there were plenty of detractors. Could the FBS really produce more than four true national title contenders? Would it devalue the regular season? Can the sport deliver a consistently compelling postseason product?

After an exciting super-sized season of college football, the answer is a resounding yes. Ohio State battled back from a devastating loss to Michigan to produce one of the most impressive four-game runs in college football history. The championship game against Notre Dame went down to the wire and legends were born.

Neither Ohio State nor Notre Dame would have even made the four-team playoff under the previous rules. Instead, the pair combined to beat every other member of the top eight head-to-head and plow their way to an undisputed national title game that was decided on the field.

And even among the teams that didn’t contend for a championship, returns were incredible. SMU, Tennessee, Boise State and Indiana all elevated themselves after earning trips to the CFP. Arizona State cemented itself as a rising program by taking Texas to double-overtime. Even teams like South Carolina and BYU benefitted from major chatter during breakout seasons. In a four-team playoff world, all those teasm would have been deemed irrelevant down the stretch. Instead, America got a good, hard look at around two-dozen playoff contenders.

Granted, Ohio State and Notre Dame were hardly plucky underdogs despite entering the field as the 7- and 8-seeds. 

“The only CFP Cinderella you’ll ever get is a Goliath being given a third chance posing as a lower seed,” As CBS Sports’s Josh Pate wrote in a social media post after the game. 

In terms of winning a national championship, he’s not wrong — Ohio State’s massive resources are the envy of the college football world. No one thinks Akron is winning next year (unless Ohio State superfan and Akron native LeBron James is willing to pony up for them!), but for the past 15 season even most of the Goliaths have been shut out of the biggest stages.

Penn State has not won a national championship since 1986. Notre Dame’s drought dates back to 1988. Texas has gone 19 years without a title, while Ohio State went a decade. All four of these teams played its way into the final four of the 12-team CFP. Over the past three seasons, six unique teams have played in the national championship game.

But while the system produced a tremendous product in 2024, it makes the minor flaws stand out just a little more. And one of them is glaring.

Giving the top four conference champions auto-bids was a noble attempt at re-incentivizing conference championships, and in many ways, it worked. Arizona State/Iowa State, Boise State/UNLV and Clemson/SMU were all defacto play-in games with massive hype. But when the bracket came out and the No. 4 seed was the No. 12 team in the committee’s own rankings, it drastically upset the balance of the bracket.

In the second round 5-seed Texas played No. 12-ranked Arizona State. while 1-seed Oregon played No. 6-ranked Ohio State. Nothing can truly protect from a talented team like Ohio State ruining its own seeding with ridiculous regular season losses and Arizona State deserved far more than a No. 12 ranking after a great season. Still, that’s a different conversation.

Conference championships should still be rewarded handsomely, but just a seat at the table is highly valuable. Clemson showed plenty of fight in the first round against Texas and should come into 2025 with serious hype. Arizona State nearly pulled off a monumental upset against the Longhorns in the final minutes. Simply ensuring the top five conference champions is enough; slotting them as the top four seeds isn’t necessary. Missing out on a conference championship also meant Ohio State had to beat No. 1, 3, 5 and 7 in the rankings to have a chance. It’s a serious punishment.

Long term, don’t be surprised if the field expands to 16 teams so that every one of the top eight teams gets a coveted home playoff game. If byes are off the table, guaranteeing the five auto-bids should be enough benefit without seeding manipulation.

But outside of this one flaw, the system was a rousing success. And it’s worth remembering, Cinderellas aren’t defined by winning championships, but by creating memories. The four-round CFP was one of the greatest star-making opportunities in recent memory.

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo put the team on his back during a sensational double-overtime run against Texas. Even though they lost, his efforts will go down in history. The same is true of Notre Dame wide receiver Jaden Greathouse, who posted 233 yards and three touchdowns in his final two games to give the Irish a chance. Coaches like Marcus Freeman, Kenny Dillingham and Curt Cignetti all saw their stock explode because of the expanded field. Ryan Day changed his career by finally getting over the hump and winning a national championship.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar will come into 2025 with serious NFL Draft buzz after throwing some daggers in the early rounds. Clemson wide receiver T.J. Moore will headline a revamped receiving corps next to rising quarterback Cade Klubnik after playing well against Texas’ top-ranked passing defense. And of course, there’s Jeremiah Smith, who elevated himself onto the DeVonta Smith path after catching a game-clinching pass in the national title game.

Ultimately, the CFP Committee chose the right 12 teams. They slotted them in the correct places. The right teams advanced and played competitive games to decide a national championship. Star players, coaches and programs emerged.

There are tweaks left to be made, but the 12-team format delivered unprecedented success.