- Chiefs remain a good bet in the AFC West: Despite their massive success with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City has only the third-best odds to make the playoffs in the AFC.
- The Steelers face an uphill battle: Mike Tomlin’s playoff magic may run dry in 2025, as the team faces an uncertain future at quarterback.
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AFC East
Best Bet: Miami Dolphins to make playoffs
The market seems to be overreacting a bit by pricing the Patriots ahead of the Dolphins in playoff odds. Miami still has a strong core of offensive playmakers and a head coach who led the team to the postseason in two of the past three years, and they were close to clinching again last season despite quarterback Tua Tagovailoa starting only 11 games. Tagovailoa’s lingering health concerns is a risk and probably the main reason why the Dolphins are priced like this, but I think there is value on them to return to the playoffs.
AFC West
Best Bet: Kansas Chiefs to make playoffs
This is one of the most boring bets on the board, but the Chiefs having worse playoff odds than the Ravens and Bills proves there is still some value on them to make the postseason. Kansas City hasn’t missed the playoffs since Andy Reid’s second year in 2014, and they proved again they were the class of the AFC last season by going 15-1 before resting their starters in Week 18.
The Chiefs weren’t quite as impressive as their record suggested in 2024, but the combination of Reid and Patrick Mahomes makes them nearly a lock to make the playoffs year in and year out, despite playing in a relatively difficult division.
AFC North
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers to miss the playoffs -200
Betting against a Mike Tomlin-led team is usually not a wise decision, but this may be his toughest year to date. The Steelers’ quarterback situation is still very much up in the air as they wait on a decision from Aaron Rodgers, and they didn’t select a quarterback until the sixth round in Will Howard. Neither option is very promising.
Rodgers’ play has been declining over the past few years, leading to PFF overall grades of 77.7 and 77.8 in his past two healthy seasons, which were his lowest marks since 2015. The Steelers also lack talent at the skill positions to support whoever lines up under center for them this year, so Mike Tomlin’s magic may not be enough in 2025.
AFC South
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
The Trevor Lawrence era has been a bit of a disappointment in Jacksonville, but Jaguars fans are hoping the addition of head coach Liam Coen and two-way star Travis Hunter will lead to an immediate turnaround in 2025.
Lawrence has earned a PFF overall grade between 76.8 and 79.8 in each of the past three seasons, which is a bit below what is expected of him after being selected No. 1 overall in 2021. However, Coen helped lead one of the best offenses in the league last season, despite major injuries at the wide receiver position, and Hunter will provide another scintillating weapon opposite of Brian Thomas Jr., who broke out with an 83.4 PFF receiving grade as a rookie.
With those additions, Jacksonville is a good bet to return to the postseason for the first time since its miracle comeback victory in 2022.
NFC East
Best Bet: Washington Commanders to make the playoffs
Even after the Commanders made the NFC Championship game last season, the betting markets aren’t expecting them to be a shoo-in to make the playoffs in 2025. Part of that muted optimism comes from playing in a division with the defending Super Bowl champions, and the possibility of a sophomore slump from Jayden Daniels after CJ Stroud struggled in his second season last year.
But Washington upgraded its No. 2 wide receiver position in a big way by trading for Deebo Samuel, and the team made some key additions along the offensive line in free agency and the draft. While the defense still has some question marks, Daniels and the offense should be explosive enough to lead the Commanders to the postseason again in Year 2.
NFC West
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers to miss the playoffs +140
The 49ers went 6-11 and lost a ton of talent this offseason, so it’s a bit surprising to see them at the top of the playoff odds board in the NFC West. Kyle Shanahan has earned the benefit of the doubt with all of the success we’ve seen during his tenure, but massive losses on defense and the departure of Deebo Samuel, who has never earned a sub-70.0 PFF overall grade in his six NFL seasons, may prove too much to overcome in 2025.
NFC North
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
The biggest question mark in Minnesota heading into 2025 is at the quarterback position, as J.J. McCarthy is set to take over for Sam Darnold. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has made almost every quarterback who has cycled in for the Vikings look good, though, including the likes of Nick Mullens and Josh Dobbs.
With the return of Christian Darrisaw from injury and possibly the best set of skill players in the league, the Vikings are simply too juicy to pass up at these odds.
NFC South
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
Despite the conception that the NFC South is wide open, the Buccaneers have won the division four years in a row, including the past two seasons under Baker Mayfield. The team dealt with many injuries at wide receiver in 2024, but Mayfield still finished the year as PFF’s sixth-highest graded quarterback.
This season, he gets back a healthy Chris Godwin and rookie Emeka Egbuka to add firepower at the skill positions. Despite playing under his third offensive coordinator in three seasons, Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense should keep cooking and lead the team to its fifth straight division title.
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