By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
The NHL’s final four is set.
The Florida Panthers continue their quest to win a second straight Stanley Cup on Tuesday night as they open the Eastern Conference final against the Carolina Hurricanes, and Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers kick off the Western Conference final on Wednesday night against the Dallas Stars for a second straight spring.
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The Stars opened the second round as The Athletic NHL staff’s favorite to win the Cup. Are they still our top pick? And who do we see taking the East after our pre-playoff pick — the Tampa Bay Lightning — got eliminated? What about Conn Smythe favorites?
Here are the results of our staff survey after the second round, with analysis and critique from senior writers Sean Gentille and Mark Lazerus, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Figures are rounded.
Conference final predictions
Eastern Conference: Florida Panthers (3A) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2M)
| Percent of vote | Panthers | Hurricanes |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
5 games |
3.2% |
0.0% |
|
6 games |
29.0% |
16.1% |
|
7 games |
29.0% |
22.6% |
|
Total |
61.2% |
38.7% |
Gentille: The Panthers are the defending champs, so I get why there’s a gap … but they were also just pushed to the brink by the Toronto Maple Leafs. How good could they really be? (This is half a joke.)
Goldman: Just like Leafs-Panthers, this is going to be a closer series than it was in 2023. The Canes are a better team, but so are the Panthers … who just so happen to be the reigning champs. It makes sense that they have the edge in voting, but at least we all think this one is going deep.
Lazerus: As good as the Canes have been for the last several years, they haven’t won a single conference final game in this era, having been swept by the Bruins in 2019 and by the Panthers in 2023. None of us expects that to happen again. But Carolina, relentless and impressive as it is, still can’t measure up to the Panthers in terms of high-end finishers and goaltending.
Granger: For once, I think Carolina actually does measure up well in the goaltending department. Frederik Andersen has been the best goalie in the postseason, and he’s been exceptional on shots from right in front of the net (Florida’s specialty). Given his history and the Panthers’ tendency to be … physical … with the opposing netminder, it’s a big “if,” but if Andersen stays healthy, I like Carolina a lot in this one.
Frederik Andersen currently leads all goalies in the playoffs in goals against average and save percentage. (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
Western Conference: Edmonton Oilers (3P) vs. Dallas Stars (2C)
| Percent of vote | Oilers | Stars |
|---|---|---|
|
4 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
5 games |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
6 games |
6.5% |
35.5% |
|
7 games |
16.1% |
41.9% |
|
Total |
22.6% |
77.4% |
Gentille: I like Dallas in this one, but a 54.8 percent edge seems high. Edmonton made pretty light work of the Golden Knights. It might be a case of “out of sight, out of mind” for our voters.
Goldman: I think it’s been pretty easy to talk yourself out of the Oilers each round — it was the best version of the Kings, the Golden Knights are filled with shutdown talent, and the Stars are one of the deepest teams now that they’re actually healthy. But Edmonton has come to play this postseason, and there are only four games separating them from a return to the Final.
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Lazerus: While I went with Dallas, too, I’m a little shocked by this disparity. The Oilers have two very impressive series victories so far in this postseason and have reminded everyone why they were the trendiest Stanley Cup pick back in October. But there’s just no world in which I can bet on Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard against Jake Oettinger. This is the spring in which Oettinger finally gets recognized as one of the game’s truly great goaltenders.
Granger: What a heavyweight bout this is to crown the best in the West. Not only is it a rematch of last year’s conference final, but at least one of these two teams has played in this series in five of the last six seasons.
Beyond the third round
Stanley Cup champion
| Percent of vote | Pre-1st | Pre-2nd | Now |
|---|---|---|---|
|
8.8% |
47.2% |
64.5% |
|
|
2.9% |
2.8% |
22.6% |
|
|
2.9% |
19.4% |
6.5% |
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.5% |
|
|
17.6% |
16.7% |
0.0% |
|
|
8.8% |
8.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
8.8% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
0.0% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
|
|
29.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
20.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Gentille: More proof that I jumped off the Stars bandwagon at the absolute wrong time. Also, Western Conference bias is clearly in effect.
Goldman: It actually surprises me that voting for the Panthers is down after Round 2 — sure, it took them seven games, but look at how they dominated Game 7.
Lazerus: I guess it comes down to whether you think it’s a positive thing that Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin and several others have not been producing at all in the playoffs (they’re due!) or if you think it’s a negative thing (Mikko Rantanen can’t do it all himself against a team that scores at will like Edmonton!). Y’all believe. (I can say “y’all” now, because I basically live in Texas now.)
Granger: The Stars certainly feel like the most well-rounded team. They have the star power up front (with Rantanen delivering in a big way). The blue line is dangerous with Miro Heiskanen back in the fold and Thomas Harley currently second in the playoffs for points by a defenseman. Oettinger is rock solid in net. It’s really hard to find a reason this team loses outside of “Pete DeBoer has come close so many times and never won a Cup.” Maybe this is Pete’s year.
Mikko Rantanen is currently the leading scorer in the playoffs. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)
Conn Smythe winner
Gentille: The most impactful player and leading scorer is the overall favorite. No need to get cute here. Andersen is a decent dark horse, though. Zero Hurricanes skaters getting a vote is kind of wild, too.
Goldman: I get the Andersen hype; he has earned it, but I think Andrei Svechnikov and Jaccob Slavin should be in the mix for the Canes. And if the Panthers claw their way to the top again, Brad Marchand probably is high up on that list.
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Lazerus: Don’t sleep on Oettinger here. Rantanen has one point in his last three games and one goal in his last five. That run he had was spectacular, but Oettinger was the key to the Winnipeg series, and he’s been far and away the most consistent Stars player.
Granger: I’m loving all of this goalie discussion for Conn Smythe, considering how this postseason has gone for the vast majority of netminders. With the league average save percentage sitting at a cool .898 in these playoffs, Oettinger and Andersen have more than earned the hype with their steady play.
How have we done so far?
Here’s how our first- and second-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games:
First-round series predictions
Second-round series predictions
(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Jeff Bottari, Ashley Potts, Jared C. Tilton, Peter Joneleit / Getty Images)
This news was originally published on this post .
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