Alcaraz-Sinner showdown? Can Swiatek rediscover form? Nothing cut and dried in Paris

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It seems strange to be preparing for and now writing about the French Open with an entry list that doesn’t include 14-time champion Rafa Nadal.

For as long as I have been on site in Paris, so has Nadal, the years when it was the rest of the field against Nadal with inevitably the Spaniard coming out in top, the years which he missed through injury which saw a collective sigh of relief from the rest of the field and then last year with the mind willing but the body broken as he played his final match at the Grand Slam that he had made his own.

So no Nadal but plenty of others to focus on…

Let’s begin with the Brits for you to watch out for, who they’re up against and their chances, starting with world No 5 Jack Draper. This time last year Jack was ranked just inside the top 40 and his stay in Paris was brief, losing in the first round to Jesper de Jong over five sets.

Fast forward 12 months and in the Race to Turin he is fourth, winning one title (a Masters 1000) from three finals including a first Masters 1000 final on clay, reaching the final in Madrid and quarter-finals in Rome. Although since his arrival in the French capital it seems most of the chat has been about his new haircut rather than his tennis, something that Jack is going to have to get used to, as the interest in him will stretch far beyond what he is doing on the tennis court.

He will start his campaign with a lot of confidence against the Italian world No 68 Mattia Bellucci, who he beat on the outdoor hard courts of Tokyo last year without too much fuss and then among the seeds in his section are Geneva finalist Hubert Hurkacz, Miami Open winner Jakub Mensik and the Australian Alex de Minaur – while a quarter-final could see a meeting with world No 1 Jannik Sinner.

Looking to reach the last 16 for a third successive Grand Slam, Jack has been quoted as saying: “I feel really confident I am able to go deeper in these tournaments and that’s the next step for me – to have consistently good runs at Grand Slams.”

Joining Jack in the draw is Cameron Norrie who had a good run in Geneva, losing in the semi-finals to Novak Djokovic, taking his ranking up to 81. He faces 11th seed Daniil Medvedev and with Medvedev having a love-hate relationship with the red dirt and at somewhat of a career crossroads, while not a great draw, I hesitate to say it, but it could be worse.

Also in that second second section of the top half is Jacob Fearnley on his French Open debut, having only played his first tour-level clay-court match in April before going on to win eight out of 13 matches. He faces former champion Stan Wawrinka who has been wild carded into the draw.

What can Boulter and Raducanu do in Paris?

For the British women Katie Boulter leads the way, fresh from her WTA 125 title in Paris and she is up against qualifier and world No 227 from France Carole Monnet. Boulter finding herself in the bottom section of the draw and a win would set up a potential second-round clash with Australian Open champion Madison Keys.

Also in that part of the draw is Sonay Kartal, who takes on Mirra Andreeva’s older sister Erika.

Emma Raducanu faces Wang Xinyu for a second time this year looking for a first win, with the winner more than likely to face four-time French Open champion Iga Swaitek in round two.

There is also the matter of a back issue that Emma is dealing with and speaking to her after her defeat to Danielle Collins in Strasbourg, she said: “It’s annoying. It’s frustrating. And I get these spasms, and they’re quite intense and can just last quite a long time. I’ll just try and make it better.”

And speaking of the American she is the first-round opponent of Jodie Burrage.

History-maker Djokovic working with doubles partner

Away from the Brits and I must start with three-time French Open champion Novak Djokovic whose search for tour title No 100 came to an end on Saturday when he beat Hurkacz in the final of the ATP Geneva 250 event.

Djokovic became just the third man in the Open era to win 100 or more titles, joining Jimmy Connors (109) and Roger Federer (103). He also became the first man in the Open era to lift a trophy in 20 different seasons, with his first title since claiming gold at last summer’s Olympics.

It was an opportunity to find some form and confidence before facing his toughest and possibly final challenge, to win Grand Slam title No 25.

No longer working with Andy Murray, his former assistant coach and doubles partner Dusan Vemic will be by his side until at least the end of his run in Paris. In terms of his draw, it’s not too bad in the early stages, facing players who aren’t in the best of form. Things then get tricky into week two where a run to the final could see him play Medvedev, Sascha Zverev, Sinner and then Carlos Alcaraz if all the seeds were to hold!

I don’t think we will be celebrating the first player to achieve this milestone in two weeks’ time as I still think that Djokovic’s best chance of getting to No 25 will come on the grass at Wimbledon.

Another Alcaraz vs Sinner showdown?

The two standouts in the men’s draw are defending champion Alcaraz who has lost just once on the clay this year and only twice since May last year. He is a natural on this surface, comes in with the Rome title under his belt and when it comes to his rivalry with Sinner, as impressive as the Italian’s return to action has been following his three-month ban.

The Spaniard has more matches in his legs. Sinner felt like the final he would lose to Alcaraz in Rome was the perfect way to see where his game was ahead of coming to Paris, so it’s going to be interesting to see if the final we wanted and got in the Eternal City will be replicated in the French capital!

Outside of Alcaraz and Sinner having already spoken of Djokovic and Draper you have to mention former finalists Zverev and Casper Ruud, with Barcelona winner Holger Rune and Monte-Carlo finalist Lorenzo Mussetti’s names also being mentioned in contender conversations.

Can Swiatek rediscover her clay form?

Swiatek’s ‘Queen of Clay’ title hasn’t been used as much in the run-up to the French Open despite winning four of the last five titles. The reason, her head-scratching form, which for many would be above and beyond expectations – 27 wins from 36 matches, reaching four semi-finals – but for someone used to residing at the top of the rankings and competing for titles on a regular basis she is in somewhat of a barren patch, having not won a trophy or reached a final since the French Open last year.

What the early exit in Rome allowed her to do was regroup, arrive in Paris early and be back at a place where she feels comfortable and for the last few years has celebrated her birthday, with a cake on standby for May 31 when she will turn 24.

The draw hasn’t been kind and could play out: Rebecca Sramkova, Raducanu, Marta Kostyuk, Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.

What it has done is given us a new favourite in world No 1 Sabalenka, semi-finalist in 2023, quarter-finalist last year, but by far the form player on the WTA Tour, winning 36 of her 40 matches played this year with a return of three titles from six finals, including the WTA 1000 on the clay in Madrid.

Speaking ahead of the tournament, she said: “Physically, mentally, and tennis-wise, I feel stronger than ever on clay. I know I can do well on clay. I feel really strong and super excited coming here, and I hope this will be the year I’m really proud of myself on this surface.”

Is Andreeva a contender? Zheng to cause an upset?

To go with how well she is feeling on the clay, her draw has been kind, with the first real hurdle likely to be a meeting with the Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng in the quarter-finals.

Also in the conversation has to be Gauff, runner-up in Paris three years ago and a semi-finalist last year and she seems to be rounding into form having reached back-to-back finals in Madrid and Rome, and last year’s finalist Paolini, a winner in Rome, showing everyone that 2024 wasn’t a one off and she is very much back for more!

Discussions within the Sky Sports Tennis team during Madrid had 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva as a strong contender and for some (Colin Fleming) a strong favourite, while my mention of adding Zheng to the list didn’t go down too well. She has the most recent memories of winning here, picking up gold at last year’s Paris Olympics, surely that will mean something!

The most unpredictable player in either draw for me is Rybakina who I wasn’t going to mention until she won the WTA 500 title is Strasbourg on Saturday, putting herself surely back in the conversation with her first title in over a year.

So, in conclusion, nothing is cut and dried this year as it has been in others.

For years now this has been the safest of the Grand Slams to predict and be right, now with the ‘King of Clay’ retired and the ‘Queen of Clay’ asking herself questions it could well lead to an interesting couple of weeks in Paris.

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