The 2025 NBA Playoffs continue on Sunday with the Indiana Pacers hosting the New York Knicks for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Pacers stunned the Knicks by taking the first two games in New York and now they’ll head home to Gainbridge Coliseum with a chance to tighten their stranglehold on the series. The Pacers are favored by 2 points and the over/under is 223.5 points in the latest Pacers vs. Knicks odds from DraftKings, and the latest DraftKings promo code gives first-time users $300 in bonus bets if they win their first bet of $5 or more. You can also add NBA player props to your Knicks vs. Pacers bets and use NBA SGP boosts to enhance your payouts. Check out Pacers vs. Knicks picks from 10,000 simulations.
SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Here are the model’s top three picks for a Pacers vs. Knicks SGP on Sunday:
- Pacers -2 (-110)
- Pacers over 112.5 (-105)
- Bennedict Mathurin Over 9.5 points + rebounds (-112)
- SGP pays out +426 at DraftKings with a 20% NBA SGP boost (odds subject to change)
Pacers -2 (-110)
The Pacers overcame a nine-point deficit in the final minute of regulation to steal Game 1 in overtime and then exited New York with a 2-0 series lead after a 114-109 victory in Game 2. Now they’ll head back to Indianapolis, where Indiana won all three of its games during a seven-game triumph over the Knicks in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season.
“It is such a delight being able to get a -2 line on the younger, deeper, more skilled, athletic, healthier, better coached, team at home,” SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh said. “These teams have played each other a lot since last year’s playoffs the last 12 months and there is no reason to believe the Knicks are better than the Pacers.”
Pacers over 112.5 team total (-105)
Indiana scored 125 in regulation in Game 1 before juicing that total to 138 in overtime and then scored 114 in a Game 2 victory where it shot 51.8% from the floor and 43.3% from the 3-point line. Pascal Siakam carried the load with 39 points in the Game 2 win and then probably isn’t a likely outcome in Game 3, but Tyrese Haliburton did have an off shooting night (5-for-16) on his way to 14 points. Expect a bigger outing from Haliburton, who had 31 points, 11 assists and eight rebounds while showing up big-time during clutch minutes.
“I’m not expecting this to be a 109 to 112 point outing and the average simulation score of 113.8 is more like a 20% chance of 105 or less and 80% chance of 115+,” Oh said. “The Knicks have really struggled to defend the three and every minute that passes the age + athleticism + depth advantage of the Pacers, especially in 3pt differential will increase.”
Bennedict Mathurin Over 9.5 points and rebounds (-112)
Mathurin’s minutes this postseason have been a little inconsistent since he was ejected a minute into a Game 4 matchup with the Cavaliers last round. However, the long-term history of production at home puts NBA bettors in a solid buy-low spot given this line.
“His 3-1 under stretch and 10.8 average his last 9 games does not erase his 37-4, 90.2% over this line rate at home this season,” Oh noted. “Even when he only played 17 to 22 minutes he was 8-3 over this number.” FanDuel has the best price here and you could win even bigger with this FanDuel promo code.
Want more NBA picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s top NBA playoff best bets for Sunday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top NBA picks from expert Alex Selesnick, who’s on a sizzling 141-101 (+1615) roll on his last 243 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 16 units in his last 242 NBA bets.
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