- The market is changing: For years, betting unders on season-long player props was the standard approach, as sportsbooks often set inflated lines. But in recent seasons, the market has shifted, creating more value on the over, especially for players with elite talent.
- Titans QB Cam Ward will take the reins from Day 1: If Ward averages a modest 6.8 yards per attempt on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards in his rookie year.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
QB Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
- Passing yards: Over/under 3,200.5
- Passing touchdowns: Over/under 18.5
I’m leaning toward the over on both projections for Cam Ward’s rookie season. With extensive college experience across multiple systems, Ward’s transition to the NFL may be smoother than that of a typical rookie. If he averages a modest 6.8 yards per attempt on 500 passes, he would exceed his yardage projection by 200 yards. While the Titans’ receiving corps outside of Calvin Ridley is a concern, a breakout from one of their three rookie wideouts, along with continued development from tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo, could give the former Hurricane quarterback a solid shot at surpassing expectations in 2025.
RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders
- Rushing yards: Over/under 1,075.5
With a new coaching staff and quarterback in Las Vegas, projecting anything with certainty for the Raiders in 2025 is a challenge. However, the safest bet may be their commitment to rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, whom they selected with the No. 6 overall pick in this year’s draft. If Chip Kelly brings his signature up-tempo, run-heavy offense back to the NFL, Jeanty could see close to 250 carries. At that volume, he would need to average just 4.4 yards per carry to reach 1,100 rushing yards.
At 211 pounds, there are valid questions about whether the former Boise State star can handle a full NFL workload. But if he stays healthy, Jeanty has a realistic shot at hitting that mark, just as the smaller Bucky Irving did in 2024.
WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Receiving yards: Over/under 750.5
Hunter is one of the most challenging prospects to project in NFL history, as he’s attempting to play both ways at a level rarely seen in the modern era. However, post-draft comments from the coaching staff — along with significant offensive reps during rookie minicamp and OTAs — suggest he’ll see plenty of action at wide receiver in 2025. This will also be the first time the Heisman Trophy winner spends most of his practice and meeting time focused on offense, as he was primarily utilized as a cornerback in college.
Given the uncertainty, this isn’t a bet to make with high confidence. Still, with Hunter’s elite upside, a talented quarterback throwing him the ball, and a proven playcaller guiding the offense, I’d lean toward the over on his receiving production.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
- Receiving yards: Over/under 825.5
For years, betting unders on season-long player props was the standard approach, as sportsbooks often set inflated lines. But in recent seasons, the market has shifted, creating more value on the over, especially for players with elite talent.
With that in mind, I’m backing the over on Tetairoa McMillan’s rookie prop. McMillan joins a Panthers receiving corps where he should command a high volume of targets, paired with quarterback Bryce Young, who showed signs of turning the corner with PFF grades of 91.7, 80.3 and 89.3 over his final three games of 2024. While there’s some risk in projecting Young to sustain that level of play, a regression in efficiency could result in even more passing volume as the team plays from behind.
McMillan proved he can handle heavy usage in college, recording 274 targets over the past two seasons. As a top-10 pick, he’s likely to be the focal point of the offense, and I expect the Panthers to feed him enough targets to clear this number in Year 1.
This news was originally published on this post .
About the author
Sky’s Angel Reese suspended for Friday’s game vs. Fever after surpassing technical foul limit
Chicago Sky star Angel Reese has been suspended for one game after surpassing the regular-season technical foul limit during her team's 88-64 win over the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday, the WNBA announced. Reese will serve her suspension on Friday, when the Sky take on the Indiana Fever. Under WNBA rules, a player or coach is automatically suspended without pay for one game upon receiving an eighth technical foul during the regular season. The previous limit was seven technicals, but the league increased it to eight this season with the jump to a 44-game schedule. For every two additional technical fouls received, the player or coach will be automatically suspended for an additional game.Reese was issued her league-leading eighth technical late in the second quarter on Wednesday after hitting Sun forward Aaliyah Edwards in the head while the two were battling for […]
2025 Fantasy football draft strategy: Tiers, cheat sheets, deep sleepers, PPR breakouts from top NFL expert
Fantasy football rankings are ever-changing, and with the 2025 NFL season just hours away, the unfortunate truth is that there will be injuries, and those injuries will significantly impact rankings ahead of last-second 2025 Fantasy football drafts. There have already been some significant offensive line injuries, most notably Rashawn Slater, who suffered a torn patellar tendon shortly after signing a contract to become the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. Should Slater's injury alter where you place Chargers like Justin Herbert or rookie running back Omarion Hampton when making 2025 Fantasy football rankings?Hampton, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, gained momentum throughout training camp and preseason. Rookie running backs are often the X-factors that could make or break your Fantasy football championship aspirations. Where does Hampton fall in the 2025 Fantasy football rankings compared to other […]
Northern Ireland go top of Group A as Germany shocked by Slovakia
Northern Ireland are top of Group A after as group favourites Germany were shocked by Slovakia in the opening games of World Cup qualifying. Germany were beaten 2-0 in Bratislava, leaving boss Julian Nagelsmann facing more questions over his squad. David Hancko put Slovakia in front shortly before half-time before Middlesbrough forward David Strelec curled home a fine second goal after 55 minutes to ultimately complete the win. Image: Germany players react after losing to Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier Meanwhile, Justin Devenny and Shea Charles scored their first international goals as Northern Ireland opened their campaign with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.An early Jamie Reid strike was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but Charles struck less than 30 seconds into the second half, and after Luxembourg defender Seid Korac was shown a second yellow card, Devenny's 69th-minute strike […]
Northern Ireland go top of Group A as Germany shocked by Slovakia
Northern Ireland are top of Group A after as group favourites Germany were shocked by Slovakia in the opening games of World Cup qualifying. Germany were beaten 2-0 in Bratislava, leaving boss Julian Nagelsmann facing more questions over his squad. David Hancko put Slovakia in front shortly before half-time before Middlesbrough forward David Strelec curled home a fine second goal after 55 minutes to ultimately complete the win. Image: Germany players react after losing to Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier Meanwhile, Justin Devenny and Shea Charles scored their first international goals as Northern Ireland opened their campaign with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.An early Jamie Reid strike was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but Charles struck less than 30 seconds into the second half, and after Luxembourg defender Seid Korac was shown a second yellow card, Devenny's 69th-minute strike […]
Man Utd have lost a star as Clinton joins Man City in major coup
History will tell you that a move from one Manchester club to the other is usually frowned upon. Coated in so much controversy that it does not tend to happen very often.There are only a handful of players to have braved the short hop across the city in the men's game, and even less in the women's game. England duo Grace Clinton and Jess Park's decision to swap one half of Manchester for the other on the eve of the new Women's Super League season, therefore, might come as a shock. Football purists would argue it should never have happened. Man Utd fans will say they know this feeling all too well.Clinton, 22, is one of the best young midfielders in the WSL. Her sharp rise since being loaned out by Manchester United to get experience at Tottenham two years […]
Man City sign Clinton from rivals Man Utd
Manchester City have confirmed the signing of England international Grace Clinton from rivals Manchester United. Clinton had entered the final year of her contract at United and the club reluctantly accepted an offer from City on Wednesday to avoid losing the midfielder for free next summer. United lost Alessia Russo, Ona Batlle and Mary Earps across recent years due to expiring contracts.Clinton could make her Man City debut on Friday as the club begin their WSL campaign away to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports. Live WSL Friday 5th September 6:30pm Earlier on WSL Deadline Day, Clinton's England team-mate Jess Park moved the opposite way across Manchester, joining United from City on a four-year deal. Clinton, 22, becomes City's sixth summer signing, joining Jade Rose, Iman Beney, Sydney Lohmann, Eartha Cumings and Laura Wienroither in moving to the Joie Stadium. Having […]
Related
Sky’s Angel Reese suspended for Friday’s game vs. Fever after surpassing technical foul limit
Chicago Sky star Angel Reese has been suspended for one game after surpassing the regular-season technical foul limit during her team's 88-64 win over the Connecticut Sun on Wednesday, the WNBA announced. Reese will serve her suspension on Friday, when the Sky take on the Indiana Fever. Under WNBA rules, a player or coach is automatically suspended without pay for one game upon receiving an eighth technical foul during the regular season. The previous limit was seven technicals, but the league increased it to eight this season with the jump to a 44-game schedule. For every two additional technical fouls received, the player or coach will be automatically suspended for an additional game.Reese was issued her league-leading eighth technical late in the second quarter on Wednesday after hitting Sun forward Aaliyah Edwards in the head while the two were battling for […]
2025 Fantasy football draft strategy: Tiers, cheat sheets, deep sleepers, PPR breakouts from top NFL expert
Fantasy football rankings are ever-changing, and with the 2025 NFL season just hours away, the unfortunate truth is that there will be injuries, and those injuries will significantly impact rankings ahead of last-second 2025 Fantasy football drafts. There have already been some significant offensive line injuries, most notably Rashawn Slater, who suffered a torn patellar tendon shortly after signing a contract to become the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL. Should Slater's injury alter where you place Chargers like Justin Herbert or rookie running back Omarion Hampton when making 2025 Fantasy football rankings?Hampton, the No. 22 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, gained momentum throughout training camp and preseason. Rookie running backs are often the X-factors that could make or break your Fantasy football championship aspirations. Where does Hampton fall in the 2025 Fantasy football rankings compared to other […]
Northern Ireland go top of Group A as Germany shocked by Slovakia
Northern Ireland are top of Group A after as group favourites Germany were shocked by Slovakia in the opening games of World Cup qualifying. Germany were beaten 2-0 in Bratislava, leaving boss Julian Nagelsmann facing more questions over his squad. David Hancko put Slovakia in front shortly before half-time before Middlesbrough forward David Strelec curled home a fine second goal after 55 minutes to ultimately complete the win. Image: Germany players react after losing to Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier Meanwhile, Justin Devenny and Shea Charles scored their first international goals as Northern Ireland opened their campaign with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.An early Jamie Reid strike was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but Charles struck less than 30 seconds into the second half, and after Luxembourg defender Seid Korac was shown a second yellow card, Devenny's 69th-minute strike […]
Northern Ireland go top of Group A as Germany shocked by Slovakia
Northern Ireland are top of Group A after as group favourites Germany were shocked by Slovakia in the opening games of World Cup qualifying. Germany were beaten 2-0 in Bratislava, leaving boss Julian Nagelsmann facing more questions over his squad. David Hancko put Slovakia in front shortly before half-time before Middlesbrough forward David Strelec curled home a fine second goal after 55 minutes to ultimately complete the win. Image: Germany players react after losing to Slovakia in their World Cup qualifier Meanwhile, Justin Devenny and Shea Charles scored their first international goals as Northern Ireland opened their campaign with a 3-1 win in Luxembourg.An early Jamie Reid strike was cancelled out by Aiman Dardari, but Charles struck less than 30 seconds into the second half, and after Luxembourg defender Seid Korac was shown a second yellow card, Devenny's 69th-minute strike […]
Bethell demonstrates ‘rare gift’ in blistering batting cameo
"He has a rare gift of taking games away from opponents. He can play innings not many players can."Jacob Bethell's 58 off 40 balls did not ultimately prove the match-winning knock it threatened to be at one stage of England's chase of 331 in the second ODI against South Africa at Lord's, but the words of Sky Sports' Nick Knight still ring true. Veterans Joe Root and Jos Buttler top-scored with 61 apiece as the hosts fell five runs short, but it was England's future destroyer-in-chief who arguably played the more eye-catching knock.Buttler, as well as new skipper Harry Brook, were actually bumped down the order to make way for the 21-year-old Bethell with England 66-2 in the 13th over, fresh from an abject batting display in the series-opening drubbing at Headingley in which they didn't even bat out half […]
Man City sign Clinton from rivals Man Utd
Manchester City have confirmed the signing of England international Grace Clinton from rivals Manchester United. Clinton had entered the final year of her contract at United and the club reluctantly accepted an offer from City on Wednesday to avoid losing the midfielder for free next summer. United lost Alessia Russo, Ona Batlle and Mary Earps across recent years due to expiring contracts.Clinton could make her Man City debut on Friday as the club begin their WSL campaign away to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports. Live WSL Friday 5th September 6:30pm Earlier on WSL Deadline Day, Clinton's England team-mate Jess Park moved the opposite way across Manchester, joining United from City on a four-year deal. Clinton, 22, becomes City's sixth summer signing, joining Jade Rose, Iman Beney, Sydney Lohmann, Eartha Cumings and Laura Wienroither in moving to the Joie Stadium. Having […]
Be the first to leave a comment