Can Tijjani Reijnders’ arrival boost Manchester City’s 2025/26 title odds?

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It’s been nine years since Manchester City last found themselves as an afterthought in a league title race. The 2024-25 season was a long, trophy-less season for Pep Guardiola’s men. Nothing seemed to go right as injuries, ageing players and sudden drops in form combined to leave the Citizen’s 13 points off Liverpool’s title-winning tally of 84.

As long as Guardiola is at the helm, a double-digit gap between his team and pole position will be unacceptable. City started to bridge that gap in January, using the winter window to primarily focus on fixing a leaky defence. It seemed to work as the Citizens allowed the second-fewest expected goals (xG) in the Premier League since the start of 2025, only bested by a defensively solid Arsenal.

However, the players targeted by City so far during this summer window are more impactful on the other end of the pitch. AC Milan’s Tijjani Reijnders has just completed his move to Manchester, while Wolves’ attacking left-back Rayan Aït-Nouri and Lyon’s midfield maestro Rayan Cherki are poised to follow him.

The bookmakers still believe there is much more needed from City to improve their chances of usurping Liverpool as champions of England. Even with the addition of Reijnders, Guardiola’s side remain firmly behind Arsenal (5/2) and the Reds (21/10) with odds of just 13/5. So, do the bookmakers know something we don’t? Or is City’s ongoing overhaul about to provide considerable value?

Don’t put any money on Reijnders to defend

You have to hand it to Guardiola. He watched in horror as his once impenetrable defence got ripped to shreds in the early part of the season, only to sign a “not-defender” a few months later.

That isn’t a malfunctioning chart; the Dutch midfielder just isn’t all that interested in defending. If you want a deeper dive into what exactly Reijnders does bring to the table, our own Sam Lee has already written a comprehensive tactical breakdown.

What we’ll focus on here isn’t the what of Reijnders but the why. As in, why does Guardiola want to sign not one, but potentially two all-out attacking midfielders — Cherki’s radar looks almost identical — after watching his defence struggle to cobble itself back together?

The answer is simple: City have always won due to their devastating attacking prowess. Last year was the first time in six seasons that the Citizens didn’t lead the league in xG. During the 2023-24 season, Liverpool’s xG tally topped City by over seven goals (87.8-80.5). This year, that gap nearly doubled as City created only 68.1 xG to Liverpool’s 82.2. For a club that once created nearly 23 more expected goals than the next closest side in the 2019-20 season, this decline has caught Guardiola’s attention. The need for reinforcements who can turn things around is apparent, and Reijnders’ numbers speak for themselves.

The irony is that despite all the focus on the new signings, the most intriguing reason to lay money on City’s 13/5 title odds is a player who joined the team last summer: Sávio.

Is Sávio the smarter pick?

Michael Imburgio’s DAVIES model attempts to capture one of the most difficult aspects of football: measuring the impact of every touch a player takes on his team’s ability to score a goal. When analysing the DAVIES rankings of the most impactful players in the league last season, you get a relatively unsurprising list. Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah ranks first, followed by Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, Newcastle’s Alexander Isak and City’s Erling Haaland.

The fact that Haaland leads City in the DAVIES score isn’t very shocking. What does raise an eyebrow is who sits third in the table: Sávio. In nearly every category the model measures — box activity, shooting, final ball dribbles and carries — the Brazilian winger made a significant contribution to the City attack last season.

If the number a sophisticated model churns out is too ambiguous for you, there are other advanced metrics that show Sávio might be a future superstar. The 21-year-old is the third-best player in the team in passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes, behind only Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku. Sávio was also second on the team in carries into the penalty area and touches inside the box, once again trailing Doku.

So, if Doku is leading all these categories, why the excitement for the Brazilian and not the Belgian? It’s because Doku often uses mesmeric dribbling to get into dangerous areas only to misplay the final ball. It’s why Sávio not only has a much higher DAVIES score — 3.32 to Doku’s 1.33 — but also ranked second on the team in shot-creating actions, trailing only De Bruyne.

Interestingly, one of the main reasons the 21-year-old likely didn’t see more of the action: he couldn’t score. While Reijnders scored 15 goals off just 9.9 xG, Sávio only managed a paltry two goals off 6.5 xG last season.

Reijnders’ additional impact in the final third certainly will add value to City’s title odds as well as the contributions of Cherki and Aït-Nouri if they end up in Manchester. But the new faces aren’t the reason to be optimistic about the Citizens. It’s a familiar face that could supercharge their upcoming season.

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Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Photo of Tijjani Reijnders: Giuseppe Meazza / Getty Images)

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