- Can Joe Burrow lead the NFL in passing yardage again? With Burrow having produced more than 4,400 passing yards in three of his five NFL seasons (the two in which he didn’t were cut short by injuries), he stands a good chance of leading the league in 2025.
- Bet on Justin Herbert to light up scoreboards: Even with limited options to target in the passing game this past season, Herbert tossed 23 touchdowns — the fourth time in his career of exceeding a 21.5 line.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Fantasy football and NFL betting go hand-in-hand. Through the very same insights we use to help you draft the best possible lineup to win your fantasy leagues, we can also determine the best futures and prop bets to target throughout the season.
Thanks to the hard work of Nathan Jahnke, Jon Macri and the rest of the PFF Fantasy team, we’re able to measure projections for every player against season-long betting lines to determine the most valuable futures bets.
These are the best passing props to target for the 2025 NFL season.
Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
- Line: Most passing yards in the NFL (+650)
- PFF Projection: 4,262 passing yards
After posting an NFL-leading and career-high 4,918 passing yards this past season, Burrow is again projected to pace the league in yardage in 2025, placed as the betting favorite in the eyes of oddsmakers. With a long track record of production and two of PFF’s top-ranked receivers, he stands a good chance.
A subpar defensive performance from the Bengals in 2024 resulted in nearly every matchup becoming a boat race. The team fielded the fifth-highest-scoring offense (324 points) and the 30th-ranked defense in points allowed (300). With similar questions regarding the defensive personnel this season — primarily pertaining to Trey Hendrickson’s future — Burrow and company may be forced to shoulder the burden again.
With Burrow having produced more than 4,400 passing yards in three of his five seasons (the two in which he didn’t were cut short due by injuries) and placing in the top six in each of those campaigns, the Bengals passer has an excellent opportunity to become the first quarterback to lead the NFL in passing yardage in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees did it in 2015 and 2016.
Pick: Joe Burrow to lead the NFL in passing yardage (+650)
| Name | Passing Yards Projection | Passing TD Projection | Interceptions Projection |
| Joe Burrow | 4,262.48 | 31.50 | 9.93 |
| Brock Purdy | 4,164.35 | 24.57 | 10.86 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4,132.58 | 29.24 | 9.82 |
| Jared Goff | 4,033.63 | 27.38 | 10.88 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3,969.54 | 25.09 | 11.72 |
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
When healthy last season, the Dolphins quarterback was putting up numbers reminiscent of his 2023 performance, when he led the NFL in passing yardage (4,620) and PFF passing grade (90.2). Over Tagovailoa’s 11 games last season, he averaged 260.6 passing yards per outing, a pace that would have pushed him past 4,400 yards if he had played in 17 games.
Although the rumor mill has been churning out headlines about Miami’s top target, Tyreek Hill, nothing substantial has arisen. Should the Dolphins retain him, as it appears they will, Tagovailoa will head into the 2025 season with both of his top receiving targets in Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
However, one trade rumor that seems to be more grounded in reality is a deal sending Jalen Ramsey out of Miami. That would leave the Dolphins’ secondary in a bad spot. With a schedule featuring some strong offenses, the onus will be on the Dolphins’ passing game to pick up the slack.
Pick: Over 3,500.5 passing yards (-114)
| Name | Passing Yards Projection | Passing Yards Line | Passing Yards Differential |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3,969.54 | 3,500.50 | 469.04 |
| Jalen Hurts | 3,617.92 | 3,200.50 | 417.42 |
| Justin Fields | 2,935.93 | 2,575.50 | 360.43 |
| Brock Purdy | 4,164.35 | 3,850.50 | 313.85 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3,500.96 | 3,200.50 | 300.46 |
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
We have to get this out of the way first: McCarthy is a talented young passer with a phenomenal offensive mind at head coach in Kevin O’Connell and a solid complement of weapons around him. However, expectations are being set exceedingly high. McCarthy can have an exceptional season and still miss out on hitting this line.
McCarthy’s 24.5 passing touchdowns line is tied for the ninth highest in the league. From a historical perspective, just five passers in the past decade have managed to produce 25 scores in what was effectively their first season as a pro.
The Vikings face the third-most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL in 2025. They are set to battle some tough secondaries, with five games against teams that finished in the top 12 for fewest passing touchdowns allowed and another four that finished in the top 10 in PFF coverage grade.
Pick: Under 24.5 passing TD (-108)
| Name | Passing TDs Projection | Passing TDs Line | Passing TDs Differential |
| Jayden Daniels | 22.92 | 24.50 | -1.58 |
| Joe Burrow | 31.50 | 33.50 | -2.00 |
| Baker Mayfield | 28.00 | 30.50 | -2.50 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 19.81 | 24.50 | -4.69 |
| Caleb Williams | 16.96 | 22.50 | -5.54 |
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
While Herbert’s 2024 counting stats may not have reflected a milestone year, it was exactly that for the Chargers quarterback. His 90.8 PFF passing grade was a career best and ranked third in the NFL among qualifying passers, hinting at a 2025 campaign that could be Herbert’s best season yet.
Even with limited options to target in the passing game this past season, Herbert still tossed 23 touchdowns, the fourth time in his career he exceeded this line. The only season in which he failed to surpass 22 touchdowns was 2023, when he missed the last four games due to injury. He still managed 20 scores that year.
This season, Herbert has a host of pass-game weapons. Ladd McConkey is looking to build on his seven scores as a rookie. Second-round pick Tre Harris caught seven touchdowns in just eight games last season at Ole Miss. And rookie KeAndre Lambert-Smith hauled in eight scores in 2024 while showcasing his talent in the red zone.
Pick: Over 21.5 passing TDs (-108)
| Name | Passing TDs Projection | Passing TDs Line | Passing TDs Differential |
| Justin Fields | 17.54 | 14.50 | 3.04 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25.09 | 22.50 | 2.59 |
| Jalen Hurts | 21.94 | 19.50 | 2.44 |
| Justin Herbert | 23.92 | 21.50 | 2.42 |
| Sam Darnold | 22.87 | 20.50 | 2.37 |
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