The first-ever player to post a 40-homer, 70-steal season in MLB history, Ronald Acuna Jr.’s legs haven’t been that active since returning from a torn ACL last season. He has just one stolen base on the season, but his bat is as potent as ever and always deserves consideration for MLB player props such as home run props. Acuna has six homers in just 19 games as his hard-hit rate is the best in baseball and his average exit velocity is second-best. Acuna has two dingers over his last four games and has as favorable a matchup as could be on the Saturday MLB schedule.
Atlanta will host the historically-bad Colorado Rockies, whose pitching staff is a big reason for their lack of success. The Rockies have allowed the most home runs in the National League, as Acuna has +390 MLB home run odds at bet365 to go yard on Saturday, making him one of SportsLine’s best values in the Saturday MLB home run picks for online sports betting sites. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 35.95 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 67 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Plus, see our Saturday MLB parlay picks, MLB prop bets, and Cardinals vs. Brewers matinee baseball picks.
Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, June 14:
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+390)
Acuna has homered in every other game since Monday, and he didn’t homer in his last outing, so he could be due to go yard on Saturday. Helping in that regard is the opponent Rockies who are putting a rookie on the mound who is looking very much like a first-year player. RHP Chase Dollander has a 6.85 ERA that ranks 146th out of 150 pitchers with at least 40 innings thrown. Dollander allowed two longballs in his last start and has given up four homers over his last four games. Also, five of Acuna’s six home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, and his prospects may even improve once Colorado goes to its relievers as no NL bullpen has allowed more homers (36) than the Rockies.
“An advantage that comes with betting on Acuna to homer is him hitting leadoff which could give him an extra plate appearance compared to his teammates,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “Acuna also has a propensity to start the game off with a leadoff HR. He ranks 15th all time with 35 leadoff home runs.” Fetner also noted that sportsbooks are all over the place with Acuna’s MLB prop odds as some have him as low as +245 to homer. He sets Acuna’s line at +350 to launch one over the fence, so you can play +390 odds with a bet365 bonus code that offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses.
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+450)
Not Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso or anyone else in the National League has a higher OPS than Marte (1.000), and his 6.5% home run rate is also a career-high. He’s homered four times over his last 11 games, which is just one shy of tying for the most in baseball over that stretch. He is also facing a rookie on the mound in RHP, Ryan Bergert of San Diego, who has started off well, but his minors performance was less than impressive. Additionally, the splits favor Marte in this matchup, considering how many of his homers have come against righties, as a FanDuel promo code could let you play +450 odds on Marte.
“Bergert has been solid but not great in his minor league career. He went just 2-10 with a 4.78 ERA in the minors last season, so you can expect some regression going forward, especially with him now starting instead of coming out of the bullpen,” Fetner said. “Marte is hitting .337 with 10 of his 12 HRs coming as a left-handed batter against RHPs. We like him even more facing a rookie RHP. We set Marte’s line at +280 to hit a HR.”
Wyatt Langford, Rangers (+450)
Picking on rookie pitchers is a theme, as Langford and Texas will also get to face one in MIke Vasil of the White Sox. He’s making just his second MLB start and gave up a longball in his first. Langford has 13 home runs on the season, including two over his last four games, and he’s been moved up in the lineup which allows him more plate appearances. After spending some time in the 3-hole earlier this year, Langford has hit second each of the last 10 games ahead of Saturday’s home game. Playing at Globe Life Field adds to Langford’s HR prospects as his home run rate is 6.6% in the friendly confines, compared to 5% on the road.
“In Rangers wins this season, Langford is batting .286 with a .986 OPS and 10 home runs. In Rangers losses, Langford is batting .183 with a .538 OPS and just 3 HRs,” Fetner stated, with +450 odds coming at bet365. “With the ML at nearly -400, it’s implied that the Rangers have around a 78% chance of winning this game, and Langford has raked in wins. We set the line at +370 for Langford to homer.”
Where to bet MLB props on Saturday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Saturday:
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 159-80 roll (+2396.75) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 5-1 (+455) over his last six MLB picks, and he already has locked in three picks for Saturday.
This news was originally published on this post .
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