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Early in the second quarter of their Week 5 game last season, the Denver Broncos didn’t look like a playoff team. It just looked like more of the same.
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The 2-2 Broncos, who hadn’t made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50 more than eight years earlier, trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 10-3 at home. The Raiders had first-and-goal on the 5-yard line. At that moment, the Broncos had a rookie quarterback who had experienced more struggles than success, a .500 record and they were about to fall behind by two touchdowns to a Raiders team that would end up 4-13. There wasn’t a great reason to believe 2024 would be much different than the previous eight unsuccessful seasons.
Patrick Surtain II had the first moment that would change the Broncos’ season. He picked off Gardner Minshew II and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown. That play started Surtain’s march toward an NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. And that wasn’t even the biggest moment in the game for Denver. That happened on the sideline.
There was confusion about a play call, quarterback Bo Nix threw incomplete and when he got back to the sideline Sean Payton laid into him. That isn’t unusual; Payton is from the Bill Parcells tree and doesn’t mind some confrontation on the sideline. What happened next was huge through: Nix gave it right back to Payton. A rookie, who had had plenty of struggles in his first month of the season and was making just his fifth NFL start, stood up to his Super Bowl-winning coach.
Sideline arguments are usually overblown. Players and coaches are passionate, they argue and move on. But that moment seemed like a big deal, and in a good way.
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“There is still a little bit of Ferris Bueller in this player that we have to get rid of. I’m talking about Bo,” Payton said with a laugh after the game. “I love him to death and sometimes it is my love language.”
Payton talked about how he wanted Nix so badly in the 2024 NFL Draft that he would be upset when someone would pair the Broncos and Nix in mock drafts beforehand. Payton joked (or maybe he was serious) about planning to be at Nix’s house on draft day to tell him the Broncos had picked him. And after that moment on the sideline, not long after Surtain saved Denver on defense, Nix and the Broncos took off. Payton honed in on Nix as his quarterback, and he paid off big as a rookie.
Denver made the playoffs for the first time since Peyton Manning retired. Nix had a remarkable rookie season. He was the 12th pick of the draft, the sixth quarterback selected, but outplayed a few of the quarterbacks taken before him. The Broncos’ defense made a big jump to the top five of the NFL. The offensive line came together and is now considered among the best in the NFL. Payton showed last season he’s still one of the best coaches in the NFL. Then Denver was aggressive in the offseason, adding some potential difference makers.
[Get more Denver news: Broncos team feed]
Expectations weren’t high for the Broncos last season, given the rookie quarterback situation, questions on the roster and the playoff drought everyone talked about, and it’s a lot different this season.
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“You can really feel that the times are changing for us,” receiver Marvin Mims Jr. said on SiriusXM NFL Radio, via NBC Sports. “People always like to say a ‘win now’ mode. With the way things went last year — we were projected to be last in the league last year and wound up making the wild card. Guys that were here last year, they believe. The guys that are coming in, they want to make an impact too. I think everyone’s hungry.”
The Broncos still play in a tough division led by the reigning AFC champs. Nix has to avoid the sophomore slump that has hit plenty of other quarterbacks. The defense has to keep its massive gains — it went from being ranked 30th in DVOA in 2023 to fourth last season — and we often see defenses that grow that much take a step back.
But suddenly, the present and the future of the Broncos looks pretty good.
Quarterback Bo Nix and coach Sean Payton helped the Broncos break a long playoff drought. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
(AAron Ontiveroz via Getty Images)
Offseason grade
Sean Payton teams always spend big in the offseason without much regard for the future, and the Broncos added three potential impact players in free agency. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw and safety Talanoa Hufanga came over from the 49ers, and tight end Evan Engram was added from the Jaguars. Everyone seemed to love the Broncos’ haul, which ignores significant injury concerns for all three players, but if they’re all healthy they should fit very well in Denver. The Broncos didn’t go offense in the first round as many expected, but got good value in cornerback Jahdae Barron at No. 20 overall. That gives the Broncos perhaps the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL. Then Denver did attack offense with running back R.J. Harvey in the second round and receiver Pat Bryant in the third. After the draft the Broncos added running back J.K. Dobbins, who had 905 yards and nine touchdowns with the Chargers last season but has a long injury history. That seemed odd after investing an early pick in Harvey, but Payton typically uses multiple running backs. There are a lot of injury concerns with the additions, but the upside is clear.
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Grade: B
Quarterback report
Bo Nix had a bit of a slow start to his rookie season, including a 60-yard game at the Jets that the Broncos found a way to win 10-9, but he was tremendous down the stretch. Nix finished with 3,775 passing yards and 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, and also added 430 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. This offseason Sean Payton praised Nix’s improvement in decision making within the offense, and said his understanding of what the Broncos are doing is “entirely different.”
“I feel like I’m a lot further [along],” Nix said, according to the team’s transcripts. “Just spitting out play calls a lot easier and just processing.
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“It’s a lot better and a lot more enjoyable not thinking right now as opposed to what I was doing last year. It’s fun, it’s fun to be in the know and it’s fun to have a little more of an understanding of what’s going on so I can be a little more beneficial to others and help them out along the way.”
When a player at any position has a good rookie season, the expectation is that Year 2 will be even better. That doesn’t always happen. But the way Nix played late in the season and the continuity he’s experiencing with Payton gives him a shot to improve.
BetMGM odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Expectations are high for a Denver team that went 12-6 against the spread last season (8-0 ATS as a favorite) and lost in the first round to the Buffalo Bills. While the win total seems high at 9.5 at BetMGM, the Broncos had one of the NFL’s best defenses last season and added first-round corner Jahdae Barron to it, along with Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw in free agency. If Bo Nix can help the offense score enough points, the Broncos will be a playoff contender — their biggest issue is that they reside in a tough AFC West division. Denver is a sizable favorite in three straight home games (vs. New York Jets, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys) in Weeks 6-8 and 12 games overall.”
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Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Courtland Sutton’s ADP has toggled between WR23 and WR27 in Yahoo leagues this summer. That’s probably a little disrespectful, given that he was the WR10 in basic scoring last year. Sutton isn’t a speed merchant, but he’s outstanding on boundary and red-zone plays, which has led to 18 touchdowns the last two years. He’s the clear No. 1 read in the Denver passing game, and I love targeting a player who can regress from a previous level of production but still deliver a fantasy profit.”
Stat to remember
Success rate and EPA (expected points added) are two telling advanced stats. And the Broncos defense was elite in every category of those stats last season: first in EPA allowed, second in success rate allowed, first in EPA allowed per pass, third in success rate allowed per pass, fourth in EPA allowed per run and sixth in success rate allowed per run. The Broncos were great in traditional stats too: third in points allowed, seventh in yards allowed, tied for fifth in yards per pass allowed, second in yards per rush allowed and sixth in passer rating allowed. The Broncos defense was fantastic in every way last season, led by Patrick Surtain II. Pro Football Focus had Surtain allowing only 40 receptions for 396 yards in coverage all season. He was a deserving Defensive Player of the Year winner. Denver also got at least seven sacks from Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen (who had an under-the-radar great season) and John Franklin-Myers, and all of them return.
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Defensive excellence can be less predictable than offensive success from year to year, and maybe a Broncos defense that was in the bottom 10 in most categories over the 2023 season can’t repeat being a top five defense this season. But with just about everyone returning, including coordinator Vance Joseph, and three big additions (safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and first-round pick cornerback Jahdae Barron), the Broncos can realistically believe they will have the best defense in the NFL this season.
Burning question
Does Denver’s offense have enough playmakers?
The Broncos had a good offense last season, which was surprising because they didn’t have many stars on it. Courtland Sutton had 1,081 yards, running back Javonte Williams had an inefficient 859 yards from scrimmage (and is off to Dallas), and no other Broncos player had more than 572 scrimmage yards. It’s hard to field a good offense when you’re that thin on playmakers. That’s why the Broncos made some moves in the offseason.
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The running back room was remade. Denver didn’t attempt to bring back Williams, who averaged 3.7 yards per rush, but drafted R.J. Harvey and signed J.K. Dobbins as their new 1-2 punch. Evan Engram was signed to a two-year, $23 million deal after the Broncos got next to nothing out of the tight end position last season. The receiver room is crowded after Sutton, with Marvin Mims Jr., Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele all having promising moments last season, and perhaps one of them or rookie third-round pick Pat Bryant emerges as a legitimate WR2. Sean Payton doesn’t mind spreading the ball around and he has shown that can lead to a productive offense, but having a star playmaker emerge other than Sutton would provide a boost.
Best-case scenario
Bo Nix doesn’t need to improve to get the Broncos back to the playoffs. If he maintains his level from last season, Denver is just fine. But what if he does improve? The reviews on him this offseason have all been positive. Now he has a much better running game to support him with R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins and the team added passing game weapons in tight end Evan Engram and maybe receiver Pat Bryant. A top-10 quarterback, top three offensive line and a top-three defense can take a team a long way. Knocking off the Chiefs in the AFC West seems to be a tough ask after they’ve won nine division titles in a row. But if all of the Broncos’ additions stay healthy, Nix improves even a bit from a strong rookie season and the defensive improvements mostly stick, Denver can end Kansas City’s run of division championships. And if the Broncos can do that, they can pull off a deep playoff run as well.
Nightmare scenario
C.J. Stroud was a better prospect than Bo Nix, and had perhaps the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history. In Stroud’s second season, his numbers were down across the board. It happens, even to very good players. Nobody expects Nix to be Mac Jones (whose numbers in his rookie season, when he helped the Patriots, were quite similar Nix’s numbers last season), but nobody was predicting Jones would be off the NFL map in just a few years either. Nix should avoid that fate because Sean Payton will elevate him, but if Nix takes a step back it would be a big disappointment for a Broncos franchise that believes it finally solved its post-Peyton Manning quarterback problem. And if a Nix regression is paired with a defensive regression, the Broncos would be well out of the playoffs. It’s not like they stormed into the postseason as the AFC’s No. 7 seed that got blasted 31-7 by the Bills in their playoff opener. Maybe last season’s success was a lot more tenuous than we want to believe, and the Broncos slide back closer to the bottom of the AFC West than the top.
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The crystal ball says
There are some regression concerns with the Broncos after a big improvement, but it’s hard to see them falling too far. Sean Payton is a fantastic coach whose success in his second stop shows why he should be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame someday. There’s also no reason to believe Bo Nix’s rookie season was a fluke. Still, if I’m investing in an AFC West upstart becoming the Chiefs’ main competition in the division over the next few years, it’s the Chargers over the Broncos. The Broncos might be a really good team and still can’t climb higher than third in their own division. Denver still looks like a playoff team, and it will be a much tougher opponent than it was for the Bills last postseason, but becoming a contender to win the division or more is still at least a season away.
This news was originally published on this post .
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