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LAS VEGAS — During the two-week window between Penn State’s loss to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game last December and its College Football Playoff quarterfinal against SMU, streams of data and opinions were funneled toward star quarterback Drew Allar as he weighed the decision to return for another season or enter the NFL Draft.
Some of the information came from head coach James Franklin, whose recruitment of Allar began when the Ohio native was a relatively unknown three-star prospect, long before he blossomed into the highest-rated quarterback in the 2022 recruiting cycle. Some of it came from his agents, who helped Allar decode rumor from truth regarding what scouts and general managers really thought of his draft stock. Allar absorbed it all.
“They did a great job giving me as much information as they could in a short time span, allowing me to make the most informed decision for myself on what I thought was best for me,” Allar said. “I definitely wanted that feedback just because when you’re going into that decision, at least for me, I want to be as informed as possible, no matter if it’s good or bad. I want to know where I stand.”
Penn State head coach James Franklin speaks with Drew Allar #15 during the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) <!–>
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Where he stood, Allar explained, was far less cut and dry than the rampant social media speculation that followed him for weeks. Depending on how well Allar performed in the postseason, where Penn State ultimately lost to Notre Dame in the national semifinals, some outlets suggested he could wind up being an early first-round pick amid a fairly barren crop of quarterbacks relative to the prior season when six were taken in the top 12 picks alone. Allar finished the year with career-highs in passing yards (3,327) and completion percentage (66.5%) while tossing 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Still, the information that made its way back to Allar — the stuff that came from sources he actually trusted — reflected a much wider range for where he might actually land. Some teams viewed him as a legitimate franchise quarterback worthy of a top-end selection. Others thought his inconsistencies rendered him more likely to be chosen in the middle rounds. There was too much variance for Allar’s liking, so he informed Franklin and the coaches of his intention to return the following year, a choice he now says was 90% firm entering the College Football Playoff.
“It was kind of like too scattered, I guess, to pull that trigger,” Allar said. “I have a lot of things I want to accomplish here as a team and individually that I wanted one more go at.”
Which brings us back to Wednesday afternoon at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, where Allar addressed reporters at Big Ten Media Days as the conference’s most accomplished quarterback and the unquestioned leader of a team tipped to win the league in multiple preseason polls released this week. He is the leading figure behind Franklin’s assertion that the Nittany Lions have “the best combined personnel we’ve ever had at Penn State” following an offseason in which fistfuls of Allar’s talented classmates — including running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen — joined him in eschewing the NFL Draft for one last collegiate ride.
The dream scenario for Allar and Penn State ends with him delivering the school’s first national title since 1986 and then becoming the program’s first quarterback selected in the opening round since Kerry Collins in 1995, nearly a decade before he was born.
A truly spectacular season could vault the 6-foot-5, 235-pound Allar, now entering his third year as Franklin’s starter, into the conversation for the top overall pick alongside fellow quarterbacks Arch Manning from Texas and LaNorris Sellers from South Carolina, both of whom will still have eligibility remaining should they choose to remain in school. It’s not impossible to squint a bit and see Allar, lauded for his physical tools, accuracy and ball security, ending up as the Big Ten’s first No. 1 selection since former Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long in 2008. The last Big Ten quarterback to open the draft was former Illinois star Jeff George in 1990.
“Huge arm,” one high-ranking NFL executive told me when asked about Allar this week. “Talented passer. Not overly mobile. He has physical upside but hasn’t put it all together yet. He’s certainly capable, but [he] needs to have a huge year where the growth playing the position is undeniable.”
One area where Allar can make significant strides is in the downfield passing game, both in terms of his willingness to unleash certain throws and his accuracy on longer passes — issues that were influenced, or perhaps compounded, by Penn State’s inability to construct a high-level receiving room.
A year ago, Allar completed an eye-catching 81.2% of his passes on attempts that traveled fewer than 9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That number plummeted to 52.2% on passes traveling between 10 and 19 yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus, which ranked 78th nationally among quarterbacks with at least 50 such attempts. Exactly half of his eight total interceptions came on passes in this range.
Penn State QB Drew Allar #15 reacts after throwing an interception during the fourth quarter against Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) <!–>
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Unfortunately for Allar, who won’t turn 22 until next March, some of his most gruesome performances have surfaced on the biggest stages, not unlike his oft-criticized coach. Allar is winless in five games against power-conference opponents ranked among the top 10 in the country over the last two years — two defeats to Ohio State; one apiece to Michigan, Oregon and Notre Dame — and his completion percentage in those outings is an unsightly 49.3%, roughly 13 points below his career average. He’s also thrown nearly as many interceptions (four) as touchdowns (five) during those outings. Only once has he topped 200 yards passing.
“I’m very self-reflective about how I go about my process,” Allar said. “Meeting with coaches and really just deep-diving into throws that I missed or decisions I didn’t really pull the trigger on. And then really trying to understand why I did, or didn’t do, those things. It’s been a really good offseason working on that.”
Though he shied away from offering too many specifics, Allar spoke broadly about the appeal of spending a second season with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, widely regarded as one of the more innovative minds in the sport; about the honest scouting report he received from new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who tormented Allar each of the last two years in the same position at Ohio State; about the importance of responding to negative events with level emotions, a tidbit Allar gleaned from reporter Tom Rinaldi of FOX Sports when the two discussed how well elite golfers bounce back from bogeys.
Drew Allar on his expectations for Penn State and growth in final season
More than anything, Allar said, he simply wanted the chance to play more football, to chase the prize Penn State came so close to winning last January, when a costly interception with 33 seconds remaining against Notre Dame kept the Nittany Lions from an appearance in the national championship game. He knows the NFL will still be there when his time at Penn State is done.
“Most people had him projected as a first-round draft choice last year,” Franklin said, “and he decided to come back to school [because of] unfinished business collectively as a team, but also as an individual. I’m a big Drew fan. You guys get a chance to get around him, you’ll feel the same way. He’s really what it’s all about.”
Michael Cohen covers college football and college basketball for FOX Sports. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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