MLB Best Home Run Bets 7/25
These lines do move so you may not get the same price at your book at your time. Make sure you check out the Inside the Lines Best Bets Blog throughout the day for the team’s best picks and best prices. We had a tremendous July 24th getting Fernando Tatis to hit a HR at +525 and a 3-1 record on our 4 non HR plays.
Cal Raleigh (SEA) +270, BetMGM
Raleigh hasn’t had much value in the HR market recently, with his line often sitting at +200 or lower. Today’s +270 on BetMGM is more reasonable. He’s just 2-for-9 with no extra-base hits against José Soriano, who doesn’t allow many home runs—but this is also a bet against the Angels’ bullpen. That unit ranks near the bottom of the majors in both home runs allowed and ERA. Soriano went 7 innings in his last start, but in the three previous times he pitched 7 innings, he failed to go longer than 5.1 IP in his next outing. We set Raleigh’s line at +215 to homer.
Riley Greene (DET) +500, BetMGM
Like Raleigh, Greene is just 2-for-9 against today’s opposing pitcher, José Berríos. However, Berríos gives up home runs at a much higher rate—16 HRs allowed in his last 21 starts. Greene has crushed right-handed pitching this season, with 23 of his 25 home runs coming against righties. He’s also homered in 23 of the 75 games where the opposing starter was right-handed. Greene has faced left-handed starters in 3 of his last 5 games, so his recent HR drought isn’t surprising. We set Greene’s line at +322 to homer.
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) +400, FanDuel
Abreu has favorable splits today against right-hander Emmet Sheehan, who has allowed left-handed batters to hit .292 against him (albeit in a small sample). Abreu owns an .844 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, and that jumps to .888 when the opposing starter is a righty. He’s hit 19 of his 20 home runs this season off right-handed pitching. We set Abreu’s line at +285 to homer.
Today’s MLB Prop Cheat Sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog which has all our personal best bets for free. Our system is simple. We take the strongest SportLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for over 0.5 a HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet. For example, Cal Raleigh is our #1 projected HR hitter and we’d set his line at +215 so the +270 line at BetMGM is still a very good value.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 7/25 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.317 | +215 | Jose Caballero (TB) | 0.337 | +197 | MacKenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.55 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.293 | +241 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.333 | +200 | Nick Pivetta (SD) | 6.35 |
| 3 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.288 | +247 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.332 | +201 | Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 5.84 |
| 4 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.282 | +255 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.321 | +212 | Bryan Woo (SEA) | 5.79 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.282 | +255 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.312 | +221 | Will Warren (NYY) | 5.7 |
| 6 | Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.278 | +260 | Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.286 | +250 | Logan Webb (SF) | 5.68 |
| 7 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.266 | +276 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.281 | +256 | Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | 5.45 |
| 8 | Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.259 | +286 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.263 | +280 | Zebby Matthews (MIN) | 5.39 |
| 9 | James Wood (WAS) | 0.248 | +303 | Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.25 | +300 | Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 5.37 |
| 10 | Riley Greene (DET) | 0.243 | +312 | Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.248 | +303 | Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.22 |
| 11 | Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.239 | +318 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.243 | +312 | Jose Soriano (LAA) | 5.19 |
| 12 | Jasrado Chisholm (NYY) | 0.234 | +327 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.239 | +318 | Dean Kremer (BAL) | 5.1 |
| 13 | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | 0.233 | +329 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.237 | +322 | Jose Berrios (TOR) | 4.99 |
| 14 | Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.228 | +339 | Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.232 | +331 | Mike Burrows (PIT) | 4.96 |
| 15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.227 | +341 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.227 | +341 | Clay Holmes (NYM) | 4.95 |
| 16 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.222 | +350 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.224 | +346 | Emmet Sheehan (LAD) | 4.85 |
| 17 | Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.219 | +357 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.223 | +348 | Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.76 |
| 18 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.217 | +361 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.22 | +355 | Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.72 |
| 19 | Tyler O`Neill (BAL) | 0.216 | +363 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.218 | +359 | Zack Littell (TB) | 4.69 |
| 20 | Corey Seager (TEX) | 0.215 | +365 | Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.217 | +361 | Ryan Gusto (HOU) | 4.66 |
| —- |
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