Oneil Cruz put his jaw-dropping power on display at the MLB Home Run Derby, and even though he was eliminated in the first round, his 513-foot homer onto the center field concourse at Truist Park was one of the highlights of MLB All-Star Weekend in Atlanta. Cruz hit his 17th home run of the season on Saturday at PNC Park against the Diamondbacks to end an 11-game streak without a big fly, and he certainly has the potential to get on a hot streak. The Pirates star is priced as high as +430 in the latest MLB home run odds, and that pricing is a big reason why Cruz is one of our top MLB HR picks for Sunday.
MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 46.95 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Also, see our top MLB longshot picks, MLB player props, and Yankees vs. Phillies picks for Sunday.
Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, July 27:
Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+430)
His 17 home runs are tied for 47th in Major League Baseball, which might not jump off the page. However, almost all of his batted-ball metrics make it pretty clear that he possesses as much raw power as any hitter in the game. He’s 99th percentile among MLB hitters in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (21.7%), hard-hit contact rate (57.1%) and bat speed (78.5 mph). He’s also hit 16 of his 17 homers against righties, and he’ll take on a struggling righty on Sunday.
“Zac Gallen has allowed 12 earned runs in his last two starts heading into this game. Gallen has also allowed multiple HRs in four of his last eight starts and leads the league with 23 home runs allowed,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Cruz’s line at +348 to hit a HR.” FanDuel has the best price, and you can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins with this FanDuel promo code:
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+350)
Acuna has been outstanding against right-handed pitchers this season, batting .345 with 12 of his 13 homers coming against righties. His latest home run came against the Yankees on Sunday when he went 2-for-4. The outfielder has gone yard four times since July 9, so the model likes his chances of homering again on Saturday.
“Rooker is hitting .304 with a 1.010 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. Rooker faced Astros‘ rookie, Colton Gordon, earlier in the season and while he went 0-3, he hit the ball 108 mph in his last at bat,” Fetner said. “Right-handed batters have 10 home runs and an .887 OPS against Gordon in 12 starts this season.” The model sets Rooker’s line to homer at +265, so you can take advantage using the latest bet365 bonus code, which offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5+ bet:
Pete Alonso, Mets (+520)
Alonso is 1-for-8 in this series against the Giants, but he’s only struck out once and has put five balls in play with an exit velocity of 94 mph or higher. He hit his 22nd home run of the season on Wednesday against the Angels and Sunday will be a bullpen day for the Giants, so he’ll have a great chance to go yard again and get hot for the first-place Mets.
“Alonso has been better on the road than at home this season with a .911 OPS on the road compared to a .839 OPS at home,” Fetner said. “We set Alonso’s line at +340 to hit a HR.” Bet on Alonso to hit a home run with this DraftKings promo code, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets instantly:
Where to bet MLB props on Sunday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday:
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 65-54-1 roll (+1683) on MLB picks.
This news was originally published on this post .
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