The 2025 National League West champion has been a foregone conclusion for months, right?
Even going back to spring training. Even going back to the winter. Even going back to the start of the offseason when the defending World Series champions signed free-agent starting pitcher Blake Snell and everyone lost their mind, this division title was never on the table for anyone else. It was always going to be the Dodgers.
We endured arguments about how MLB needed to rewrite its rules because “no fair.” We saw the Dodgers jump out to an 8-0 start this season. By the fourth of July, they had a nine-game lead in the NL West.
This thing was over.
Right?
The Padres are pushing back on that notion. So are the Dodgers, really.
Since July 3, the Dodgers have gone 10-17 with a -26 run differential. Only the Nationals (8-18) and Braves (8-19) have been worse among National League teams. The Padres, meantime, have gone 18-11 with a +27 run differential. They loaded up at the trade deadline. They are all in.
And with both teams idle on Thursday, the NL West heads to the weekend with the Padres just two games behind the Dodgers.
Here are the current odds to win the NL West, via FanDuel:
- Dodgers -750
- Padres +500
- Giants +13000
Basically, the odds are still overwhelming for the Dodgers and -750 isn’t worth playing. Should anyone jump on the Padres, though? Let’s take a look.
Schedule
First things first, the Dodgers (.474) and Padres (.478) right now have the easiest remaining schedules in baseball based on opponents’ winning percentage. Those numbers are skewed by each of them playing the Rockies (.263) seven times, but it evens out since they both play Colorado the same number of times.
The big factor to consider here is there are six remaining head-to-head games. First up, the Padres visit Dodger Stadium next weekend, Aug. 15-17, for three games. The following weekend (Aug. 22-24), there are three games in San Diego.
Unfortunately, that concludes the season series. If the Padres want to make up games or the Dodgers want to put the Padres away for good, these are the best chances.
Padres
Let’s start with the rotation here. The Padres are getting Michael King back from injury this weekend. He pitched like a frontline starter down the stretch last season and in the playoffs. Through 10 starts this year, he has a 2.59 ERA. Nick Pivetta has been a frontline starter this season since signing as a free agent with San Diego. Dylan Cease finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season and after not being traded in July — despite the rumors — he threw five shutout innings last time out.
Basically, the Padres might well have a trio of aces the rest of the season. That’s the rose-colored glasses outlook. And if we stay there, Yu Darvish and Nestor Cortes are capable of looking like very good No. 4 and No. 5 starters. There’s depth now, too, with JP Sears and Randy Vásquez in the minors.
The bullpen is the best in baseball. It isn’t perfect, but the 2.99 ERA is the best in MLB and the back-end personnel is four All-Stars in Adrián Morejón, Jason Adam, Mason Miller and Robert Suarez. Wandy Peralta and Jeremiah Estrada are as good as you’ll find when it comes to fifth and sixth relief options.
Offensively, the Padres aren’t great, but they have the players to get hot for a few weeks at a time behind stars Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. We’ve seen better from Jackson Merrill and there’s still time for him to get in a groove. Same with Jake Cronenworth and Xander Bogaerts, who has been on a roll since the break. Ramón Laureano and Freddy Fermin have hit great since their acquisitions and Luis Arraez is back to hitting for a high average (.342 since the break).
All in all, there’s a lot of talent here and reason to believe the Padres can win the West if things break right.
Dodgers
Through all the difficulties they’ve had over the past month-plus, the Dodgers are still two games up. The problems cannot continue, though, with the Padres now at their heels. We’ve already established the Padres are good enough to keep winning games. Can the Dodgers turn things around?
Injuries to the rotation have been a problem all year, but things are getting better in a big way. Tyler Glasnow has been back for a while and Snell has returned to the rotation. Shohei Ohtani went a season-high four innings on Wednesday. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw and Emmet Sheehan in the rotation means they’re at six right now and Roki Sasaki recently provided good news on his possible return. There’s enough talent and depth there to perform at a high level the rest of the way.
The bullpen has been a downside, but Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia have been good in the second half. Blake Treinen has returned from injury and we know what he’s capable of doing when he’s right. Michael Kopech is looking to return from knee surgery and has thrown two bullpen sessions. Tanner Scott is going through a throwing program as he looks to return and it’s possible Kirby Yates gets things figured out down the stretch. They have the talent for everything to come together as a dominant bullpen. It hasn’t happened yet this season for long stretches, though.
Offensively, the Dodgers have a scary-looking lineup on paper with three MVPs in addition to All-Stars Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández, trickling down to talented back-of-the-lineup hitters like Max Muncy (who returned from injury this week with a bang), Andy Pages and Tommy Edman. One of the three MVPs, Mookie Betts, is having a terrible season at the plate, but Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are still great. Smith is having a ridiculous season for a catcher, leading the NL in batting average and on-base percentage.
Basically, the Dodgers lead the majors in runs scored and there’s reason to believe there’s more where that came from now that Muncy is back and we know how much better Betts can hit.
The bottom line
The Dodgers are more talented and have more depth. They also have a two-game lead. But the Dodgers have been playing terribly for over a month and there are enough question marks to believe if everything breaks right for the Padres that San Diego could win the West. I wouldn’t bet on it. The Dodgers are overwhelmingly likely to win the division and the odds reflect that. I do not, however, think it’s completely ridiculous to believe in the Padres. I don’t, personally, but I do see a path there for anyone who wants to believe.
This news was originally published on this post .
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