After the failed Russell Wilson experiment, the Denver Broncos began 2024 with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, who the team selected with the 12th overall pick in last year’s draft. Many saw it as a reach, even with Nix being the sixth quarterback taken. But Sean Payton saw Nix as an ideal fit for his system, and after a rough stretch to open his career, Nix flourished and led Denver to the postseason while finishing 10th in scoring, including six games with 30 or more points scored. Nix completed 66% of his passes with 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.
The AFC West runs through Kansas City, and if Nix and Co. want to take the division crown from the Chiefs, the Broncos will need Nix to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump that’s plagued so many young quarterbacks over the years, such as Houston’s C.J. Stroud last year. What helps the Broncos is two big upgrades on offense in tight end Evan Engram, who can serve as a legitimate No. 2 passing threat next to Courtland Sutton. The other move? Revamping the running back room by drafting RJ Harvey and signing J.K. Dobbins. Those two should help a team that finished just 21st in yards per carry despite Denver possessing an elite offensive line.
A big key for the Broncos is continuing to dominate on defense. Denver finished third in scoring defense last year after finishing 27th year prior. This came despite the team having the same defensive coordinator and basically the same personnel. All the key stars return, and Denver added two notable veterans from San Francisco in Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. If Greenlaw can stay healthy and Hufanga returns to his 2022-23 form, both should help the defense tremendously. Denver also added a playmaker to the secondary in first-round pick Jahdae Barron, which should give reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II some help on the perimeter at cornerback. The additions give the Broncos just as good a chance to have the best defense in the league.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Broncos’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Broncos in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Denver Broncos season review
- Regular season: 10-7 (Third, AFC West)
- Playoffs: L, Wild Card Round at Bills 31-7
- Snapped longest playoff drought all-time (eight seasons) after Super Bowl win
- Bo Nix: First rookie QB to start a playoff game in franchise history
- No. 3 scoring defense after ranking 27th last season (franchise-record 63 sacks)
2025 Denver Broncos offseason review
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +15000 | 5.5 | Over | 10 | L, Wild card round |
| 2023 | +4500 | 8.5 | Under | 8 | 2nd, AFC West |
| 2022 | +1680 | 10.5 | Under | 5 | 4th, AFC West |
| 2021 | +5000 | 9 | Under | 7 | 4th, AFC West |
| 2020 | +4000 | 7.5 | Under | 5 | 4th, AFC West |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Denver Broncos futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (-115) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (-105) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 | +2600 |
| Win AFC | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1300 |
| Win AFC West | +450 | +325 | +290 | +300 |
| Make playoffs | -140 | -135 | -140 | -124 |
| Miss playoffs | +115 | +115 | +115 | +102 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 | +1300 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Bo Nix props
| MVP | +4000 | +6000 | +3500 | +6000 |
| Offensive POY | +15000 | +12500 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Most pass yards | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3500 |
| Pass yards O/U | 3500.5 | 3450.5 | 3550.5 | 3500.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Broncos
This is a team that finished top 10 in scoring with a rookie quarterback and top three in scoring defense and basically lost no one in the offseason. While Bo Nix’s rookie numbers are impressive, they need the context that Sean Payton seemed to put more on his plate as the season went along as Nix proved capable—two of his four multi-interception games came in the first two weeks, while his first of five games with at least three passing touchdowns didn’t come until Week 8. If the Nix of the second half is the baseline of what to expect in 2025 with the potential for even more, this could be the best team in the division, even including the dynastic Chiefs.
Evan Engram has the potential to be a massive addition to the offense, but what’s notable is who they didn’t add, and that’s anyone to an elite offensive line that suffers zero offensive snaps lost on the depth chart from last year. Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga can strengthen a great defense up the middle, while Jahdae Barron might prove to be the best cornerback in the draft despite being available at No. 20 overall. A team with so many position groups that could challenge for being the best in the league or at least top five has all the upside of a Super Bowl contender.
Reasons to fade the Broncos
The praise Nix has received after his standout rookie season is very similar to what Stroud was receiving at this time last year. In Year 2, Stroud and the Texans regressed offensively as the young quarterback threw for fewer yards per game and saw his interception rate take a big leap. Nix can’t afford more turnovers after throwing 12 picks last year.
Additionally, after struggling in the run game last year, it’s no sure thing that unit is better this year. Dobbins was a nice story last year for the Chargers after battling injuries in previous years, but much of his numbers were buoyed by massive performances in his first two games, and he only had three other performances with more than 4.0 yards per carry. Harvey wasn’t considered an elite play-making back coming out of college, but rather a banger. There’s certainly upside with those two backs, especially behind a tremendous offensive line, but who knows if they can reach their collective ceilings.
Defensively, that group has the potential to be the league’s best. But at the same time, there’s a massive gap between being the No. 3 scoring defense like 2024 and the 27th-ranked scoring defense like they were in 2023. If that side of the ball faces negative regression in 2025, there’s added pressure on Nix and the offense to pick up the slack.
And, of course, the Broncos are in the AFC West, arguably the toughest division in football entering 2025. The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls and appeared in two others since 2020, the Chargers made the postseason last year and the Raiders are expected to be better after adding head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith. The Broncos also play the NFC East this year, which includes road games against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and the Commanders, who made the NFC Championship Game last season. Denver also faces the Texans in Houston. The Broncos have a lot of winnable games at home, but they’re going to be tested on the road as they try and nab a division title.
How to bet the Broncos in 2025
- Over 9.5 wins +110 (FanDuel)
- Make playoffs -115 (FanDuel)
- Bo Nix MVP +7500 (FanDuel)
I’m buying on the Broncos in 2025. They finished seventh in point differential in the entire league last year, third in the AFC behind only the Bills and Ravens. Their 10-7 record was far from a fluke and probably should’ve been even better. They have a future Hall of Fame coach in Sean Payton, an offensive line that’s one of the best in football and is enjoying maximum continuity this offseason, and a defense that led the league in sacks last year by a wide margin and may have gotten better in other areas. If Payton can get an improved season from Bo Nix in Year 2, this team could crash the AFC playoff party and challenge for a Super Bowl berth, and with Payton’s history, there’s no reason to think he’s not up to the task.
Speaking of Nix, we have seen players like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson take a Year 2 leap en route to an MVP award and placement in the top tier of quarterbacks in the NFL. Nix could be the next in line despite his unassuming draft status (remember that Mahomes was the 10th overall pick and Jackson lasted until the end of Round 1; neither was considered to have the ceilings they eventually displayed). Nix saw a clear jump in play from his first seven games, where he had a 5:5 TD:INT ratio and completed 61.2% of his passes, to his last 10 games, where he played at a pace of 4,299 yards, 41 TDs and 12 INTs with a 69.7% completion rate. If Payton cleans up those interceptions, those are MVP-caliber numbers, and I’d be willing to sprinkle a small bet on Nix winning the award in a shocker.
This news was originally published on this post .
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