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If last Saturday’s college football oddsboard seemed a little bland to you, then this weekend makes up for it with some serious spice.
That starts with the light-your-mouth-on-fire salsa of No. 1 Texas vs. No. 3 Ohio State, in FOX’s first Big Noon Kickoff of the season.
Oddsmakers are already seeing a mountain of money come in ahead of Saturday’s noon ET kickoff between the top-ranked Longhorns and defending champion Buckeyes.
“That game is leading by a mile in terms of tickets and money. It’s a really big game to start the year, and it’s the Big Noon Kickoff,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their Week 1 college football betting insights, highlighted by Texas vs. Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio.
Yogi Roth previews Texas-Ohio State, expectations for Arch Manning and Julian Sayin
Marquee Matchup
Just having Texas vs. Ohio State is more than enough to attract the public betting masses. Add in that the Buckeyes are the defending national champions, and that Longhorns QB Arch Manning is the Heisman Trophy favorite, and it only adds to the massive intrigue.
Caesars Sports opened Ohio State at -3 (-105) back on May 23, and that 3-point spread held until mid-July before briefly ticking down to Buckeyes -2.5.
Over the past few days, the line toggled between Ohio State -2.5/-2/-1.5, and it’s now -1.5.
“We’re seeing one-way Texas action at this point, on the spread and the moneyline,” Feazel said. “From what we’ve seen so far, I think it’s gonna be mostly Texas money coming in between now and kickoff.”
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And it’s a very public game at this point, with professional bettors generally taking a pass.
“There’s a lot of excitement on this game, and not a lot of sharps coming in. Sharps like to bet into an edge, and I don’t see a lot of edges in this game,” Feazel said.
Caesars opened the total at 50.5 and is now at its low point of 47.5.
“There’s a little bias toward the Under,” Feazel said. “The one thing we know about both teams is that they’re gonna have great defenses.”
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone notched a win last weekend with his Hawaii +1.5 bet vs. Stanford. The Rainbow Warriors won outright 23-20 on a final-second field goal.
This week, Stone is getting involved with one of the most high-profile games: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Miami, at 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday night. Stone likes the Fighting Irish to cover as 2.5-point road favorites.
“Notre Dame is obviously debuting an inexperienced quarterback, redshirt freshman CJ Carr. But otherwise, the Irish have top-10-caliber talent in virtually every position area,” Stone said. “I’m not sold on Miami quarterback Carson Beck.”
Beck, a two-year starter for Georgia, transferred to Miami in January, following elbow surgery last December.
“I think Notre Dame clearly has the superior roster and wins by a touchdown or so.”
In another huge Saturday contest, No. 9 LSU visits No. 4 Clemson, with both teams harboring high College Football Playoff expectations.
Caesars Sports opened host Clemson at -3 (-115) for this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. Early this month, the Tigers got as high as -4.5 (-115), but the line has since receded to -3.5.
“We’re seeing a decent amount of LSU action,” Feazel said. “I would not be surprised to see that continue. We have a really big Louisiana base of bettors.”
That said, as Saturday night approaches, Feazel expects Clemson and LSU to both see plenty of action.
The total is up a point to 57.5, with bettors expecting some fireworks.
“There are a lot of bets on the Over. You’ve got two great programs and two great quarterbacks,” Feazel said, alluding to LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.
Sunday Night Football
Soon enough, our Sunday nights will be taken over by the NFL (which is great, by the way).
But this Sunday, as noted above, it’ll still be college football, with a battle between Notre Dame and Miami. The Fighting Irish opened -2.5 (-115) at Caesars back in May and have been at some iteration of -2.5/-3 ever since, currently sitting at -2.5.
Notre Dame reached the CFP championship game last season, losing to Ohio State 34-23.
“No surprise here, we’re seeing a lot of Notre Dame action,” Feazel said.
Perhaps more notable: The total is down 5 points, from a 54.5 opener to 49.5.
“The total has taken a steep dive,” Feazel said, pointing to a couple of contributing factors. “Notre Dame will want to control the football and slow down the game. Plus, in general, Week 1 really skews toward Unders. The defense is usually ahead of the offense.”
Urban Meyer reveals the challenges of trying to win back-to-back national championships
Belichick Back To School
College football Week 1 odds wrap up Monday night with Bill Belichick’s debut as North Carolina coach, at home against TCU. Back in May, oddsmakers pegged the Tar Heels as short favorites, but the market has gone toward the Horned Frogs ever since.
Caesars opened at North Carolina -1.5, and the line is now out to TCU -3.5 (-105).
“This line was one of the first to open, and this game is one of the biggest movers in college football Week 1. We’re seeing mostly TCU action. It’s a 5-point move against the Fighting Belichicks,” Feazel said.
As of Wednesday afternoon, tickets and money are relatively light on this game, with other big matchups looming before Monday night. But ultimately, TCU-North Carolina will see plenty of activity.
“This will likely be one of our biggest-bet college football games of the year. The Monday night slot drives a lot of action, especially heading into Week 1 of the NFL,” Feazel said.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
The bulk of major wagers tend to come in closer to the weekend. But Caesars Sports pointed out a couple noteworthy plays in college football Week 1 odds, including on the Texas-Ohio State showdown:
- $20,000 Texas moneyline +110. If the short underdog Longhorns win the game outright, then the bettor profits $22,000 (total payout $42,000).
- $19,453 Nebraska -8.5 (even) vs. Cincinnati. If Nebraska wins by 9 points or more on the road Thursday night, the bettor banks a profit of $19,453 (total payout $38,906).
In addition, Caesars took a couple of low-five-figure bets in futures markets:
- $10,000 Clemson +900 to win the College Football Playoff. The Tigers have been a popular national championship play throughout the offseason. If they win it all, the bettor profits $90,000 (total payout $100,000).
- $10,000 Michigan +380 to reach the Big Ten title game. If the Wolverines just get to Indianapolis for the Dec. 6 contest, then the bettor picks up $38,000 profit (total payout $48,000).
We also enjoy those bet-a-little-to-win-a-lot wagers. So how about these two blind darts thrown at Caesars:
- $450 Vanderbilt +20000 (200/1) to win the SEC
- $100 Oklahoma State +40000 (400/1) to win the national title
If by some miracle Vandy overcomes Texas, Alabama, Georgia, LSU and more in the SEC, then that customer pockets a nifty $90,000 profit. And if somehow the Cowboys are the last team standing on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, then that hundred bucks becomes $40,000.
All I can say is good luck. Enjoy Week 1.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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