Fantasy Football: But what if you’re wrong? — Players you may regret passing on in your draft this season

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You should never second-guess yourself when it comes to drafting in fantasy football … or should you? Every season you go into your draft and generally select the players you like the most, not straying too far from that path. But what if the players you’re ignoring are the ones who could win you your league? Below are players fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon is afraid he’s wrong about.

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Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

It’s not that I’m going out of my way to not draft Patrick Mahomes but he typically goes in the 50s and I have him ranked in the 70s or 80s. It’s less about Mahomes — who is my QB6 — and just my lack of interest in taking quarterbacks there from a structural perspective. However, I do think a rebuilt offensive line — if Josh Simmons hits the ground running as a rookie — and a better pass-catching corps with Xavier Worthy in Year 2 and Travis Kelce in better shape, will make this Chiefs offense better. If Mahomes gets back to that 6.5% touchdown rate averaged from 2018 to 2022 after averaging 4.5% the last two years, I’ll feel like a goofball if he was on zero of my rosters for “structural reasons.”

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Bo Nix, Broncos

Bo Nix is another quarterback whom I just haven’t been inclined whatsoever to click at pick 66 where he goes in drafts. I don’t see much separation between Nix and guys who go in the 100s. Drafters are optimistic about Nix as a fantasy quarterback, thanks to his 400-plus rushing yards in Year 1 and a step forward with a better environment in Year 2. Then again, you could make the same case for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, both of whom rushed for 489 and 421 yards, respectively, and get ecosystem boosts. Yet, they can be had between picks 104 and 109.

Then again, I guess I’m betting against a Sean Payton-coached offense in this little dilemma. Easy to see how that could go wrong.

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Running back

Javonte Williams

The buzz has been pretty steady that Javonte Williams will get the first crack at starting running back work in Dallas. His primary competition, rookie Jaydon Blue, has an ankle sprain. This should be a high-scoring offense with a rebuilt interior offensive line. Yet, I have almost never been tempted by Williams in drafts. While Williams hasn’t played well lately, he was once an intriguing prospect who could be another year healthier, removed from injuries. There have been running backs with less impressive past profiles who have succeeded in the right situation.

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Cam Skattebo

My cold, dark heart is warming to the New York Giants as a mildly interesting offense this year, with some possible appeal beyond Malik Nabers. If that takes place, I’ve been approaching it as if Tyrone Tracy Jr. will be the clear-cut lead back. There has been minimal buzz on Cam Skattebo in training camp both before and since his injury that took him out of practice. ADP has been aggressive on Skattebo all summer. Yet, what if they’re right about this hammerhead back and he takes Tracy’s job outright? I don’t think the starting Giants back is going to win your leagues, or be the one who beats you, but he could be a free, useful value I’m essentially ignoring in favor of Tracy.

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Wide receiver

Courtland Sutton

In no way did I walk into this draft season planning to be the low man on Courtland Sutton. The Denver wideout played well as a man-coverage-beating ball-winner at X-receiver. Yet, I have him ranked double-digits below consensus. My lack of enthusiasm to be ahead on Sutton has more to do with the ascending wide receivers who go around him; Sutton gets you on base but guys in their rookie or second season could be home runs at ADP. As for the player himself, I do think Sutton doesn’t quite have a full-field superstar skill set and the Broncos have both Evan Engram and more interesting young players set to compete for targets this year. However, last season, no Broncos player ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks outside of Sutton and he ranked second in air yard share and 11th in target share at the position last year. Perhaps I’m losing the forest for the trees, trying to figure out how the rotation will go behind him and less on a secure top receiver on what should be a top-15 offense.

DK Metcalf

I haven’t been tempted by a Steelers player in the single-digit rounds of fantasy football drafts this summer. At some point, DK Metcalf likely projects for too many targets to go too low in drafts. Yet, the wide receiver position is so deep league-wide and flushed with options in Rounds 5-8 of fantasy drafts, you have to break ties. I’m comfortable picking the mercurial receiver coming off his worst season going to an ill-fitting quarterback to be the spot to pass. However, Metcalf might just push for a 28% target share in this offense and Aaron Rodgers may have enough left to help him be a high-ceiling WR2 if he buys into Arthur Smith’s styling. That is a lot of “if” and “may” statements but they could just as easily flip against me.

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Keon Coleman

During his prospect charting for Reception Perception, I noted that players with success rates against man and press coverage in the same territory as Keon Coleman only find success in the NFL if they transition into a flanker/slot-heavy role. The Bills did the exact opposite in Year 1 with Coleman. Among wide receivers with 40-plus targets last year, only Rashod Bateman took a lower rate of his snaps in the slot (7.7%) than Coleman at 10.8%. What if the addition of Josh Palmer, who can threaten man coverage on deep in-breakers, allows them to move Coleman around more, rather than making him the static X-receiver? That would help smooth out the rough edges of Coleman’s separation skills. His profile isn’t one of a hopeless prospect, just one who needs some role-catering. I haven’t been drafting Coleman outside of redraft leagues because I’m skeptical he gets that catering based on this usage and the Bills’ public designation for him as the X-receiver. However, if they do alter things up, he was a near free upside pick; I only clicked on him once or twice this summer.

Tight end

Tyler Warren

As much as I love some of the members of the Colts’ wide receiver room, like Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr., and remain intrigued by Adonai Mitchell long term, I’m not drafting any of them ahead of ADP either. The general lack of enthusiasm for the Colts’ passing game under Daniel Jones extends to Round 1 rookie tight end Tyler Warren. I don’t find Warren to be an offensive pick; it’s just tough to get excited about any Colts pass-catcher right now because it’s crowded and Jones still caps the ceiling, even if he saves the floor. Still, I can really lose this micro-fade if Shane Steichen’s clear desire to feature an every-down tight end makes Warren a target hog on the RPO concepts sure to populate a Jones-led offense. Not only would that sink guys like Downs and Pittman at receiver, it would cause me to miss out on a tight end with a clear path to 70-plus catches, which isn’t easy to find.

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