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The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes will begin their title defense on Saturday, as they welcome No. 1 Texas at The Shoe.
As if this great matchup between top-three teams needed any more storylines, the last time we saw Texas back in January, the Longhorns were just a few yards away from tying Ohio State in the final minutes of the College Football Playoff.
An Ohio State defensive touchdown sealed the victory, sending the Buckeyes to play for the national title and sending the Longhorns to begin their offseason.
Nearly eight months later, the two teams meet again.
Ohio State is now a slim 1.5-point home ‘dog, with the total set at 47.5. It is very rare that we get a battle between two teams that are ranked so high while knowing very little about either.
Arch Manning — the nephew of Peyton and Eli — is a name we’ve heard plenty of as the Heisman favorite. But, we’ve only seen the prized prospect throw 95 passes in his young college career, and they’ve all come against lesser competition. None of the 95 passes have been on the road. Playing at Ohio State will be his first road test, and it’s hard to say with confidence from a handicapping perspective how this test will go for the young quarterback.
What might equalize that lack of experience for Manning, however, is facing an opposing quarterback in a similar position.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has attempted just 12 passes in his career and will take over a team that lost 14 players to the NFL. That includes four first-rounders. Ohio State will also feature two new coordinators, as Brian Hartline and Matt Patricia replace the respected tandem of Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles.
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Ultimately, there is a reason this game is lined as basically a toss-up.
Texas is perhaps slightly more talented, but Ohio State having home-field advantage in a game with two inexperienced quarterbacks is something that is dangerous to overlook.
My best bet in this game is Ohio St +.5 in the first quarter at -140.
In what is such a close game, getting that half point is very valuable, especially with two young QBs who might be dealing with some nerves early on.
If this game is tied after the first quarter or if Ohio State is winning, this bet cashes.
PICK: Ohio State (-140) +0.5 first quarter
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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