Each of the last three seasons have culminated in wild celebrations in the once forgotten city of Wrexham. All-expenses-paid trips to Las Vegas followed the end of the previous two.
But the club’s meteoric rise has had to be tempered with a dose of realism now they ply their trade in the second tier of English football. The Championship is notoriously unforgiving and Wrexham are finding out the hard way. For now, their charge through the leagues is on hold.
The club, owned by wealthy American actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, flexed their financial muscles over the summer. They were among the biggest spenders outside the Premier League and it seems to be taking manager Phil Parkinson a little while to work out his best formula.
Record signing Nathan Broadhead helped Parkinson’s side come from behind to snatch a valiant draw at Leicester midweek, but nine points from eight played is hardly fuelling promotion talk.
Highlights of the Sky Bet Championship match between Leicester City and Wrexham
And yet the juxtaposition was nonetheless fascinating – that fixture would have been Premier League vs National League only three years ago. A tie only possible in the FA Cup. As Bob Dylan famously said: The Times They Are A-Changin’.
Heading into Friday’s high-profile meeting with Birmingham City, live on Sky Sports, Wrexham are 15th, without a home win all season.
So, where are they coming unstuck? Home form has become a surprising issue, given their ascent to the Championship was based on a staggering record at the SToK Cae Ras, only registering six loses from 91 contested across their climb.
Wrexham boast the third-best home win percentage (71.7 per cent) of any club in the Football League over the past two seasons, narrowly behind Leeds and Liverpool, but that fortitude has not yet translated to Championship performances.
The downturn has been compiled by an inability to keep opposition sides at bay. They have the joint-third-worst defensive record in the division, shipping 14 goals, only one less than each of the two Sheffield sides – both currently in the relegation zone.
A deeper dive will tell you where the specific issues lie. Wrexham have conceded a league-high 100 shots inside their own box. They also top the charts for challenges lost (76) – measured as an attempt to win the ball where no contact on the ball is made.
They rank better in the metric of aerial duels won, joint-eighth with Blackburn (159), but savvier teams appear to have uncovered obvious weaknesses. Centrally they are so open and vulnerable to pace in behind. Gaps were exposed particularly well by Leicester’s Jordan James on Tuesday night.
Friday 3rd October 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Their expected goals against value (xGa) – 16.51, comfortably the worst in the league – goes some way to explaining the high volume of goals conceded. They are giving up chances far too frequently. Conor Coady’s demotion to the Wrexham bench might well serve as Parkinson’s admission of that fact.
But of course, just eight games in, nothing is lost yet. A slow start does not have to be season-defining. Last year Coventry City secured a play-off spot after rising from 17th under Frank Lampard. Luton Town are a modern-day example of a modest sized club actually realising the Premier League dream.
Friday will be pitched by Parkinson, who will hope to see a few of his injured party return, as a potential turning point. Birmingham City, owned by American sporting royalty Tom Brady, are motivated by similar ambition. Both clubs gambled in the transfer window by committing to a higher net spend than any other competitor, in the hope of throwing their name in the promotion ring.
Wrexham’s two Championship wins so far have been away from home
This game, therefore, is likely to be the barometer by which both are judged – at least in the short term. Win and Wrexham can shake off their home duck while getting one over on last season’s League One champions, who finished 19 points clear of the Welsh side on their way to promotion.
And the table would look much healthier, too. They could jump as high as ninth. But, lose and whispers of discontent will inevitably get louder.
The real test of Wrexham’s Championship credentials arguably starts now, with the chance to exorcise some early demons against a team whose reality may also be somewhat at odds with their lofty optimism.
Watch Wrexham vs Birmingham City live on Sky Sports Football on Friday night from 7.30pm; kick-off 8pm
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