Week 5 NFL against-the-spread picks, predictions for every game: Eagles try to keep it rolling vs. Broncos

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A.J. Brown, whose Philadelphia Eagles are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL, spent part of his Wednesday taking accountability for letting his frustration get the best of him after Sunday’s win.

Again, after a win. That improved the Eagles’ record to 4-0.

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It has been a weird start for the Eagles. They’re 4-0 with three quality wins. They also haven’t put together four solid quarters in the same game. For a quarter or half of each game they’ve looked nothing like a Super Bowl contender. But they’ve done enough to win. It just hasn’t been a smooth operation. Ask Brown.

Sunday is an interesting test. The Denver Broncos are 2-2 but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The two losses came to what look like playoff teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers. Both losses came on the road with no time left on the clock. The two losses weren’t good but it means the Broncos are still well under the radar. They have been far from perfect themselves, but it’s still a very good team.

The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM, and while that’s not a huge number for a top-tier home team against a 2-2 opponent, it still might be a bit high. The Broncos can compete. The pick is for the Broncos, with their strong defense and an offense that looked a lot better Monday night, to cover. And if the Broncos win, there will really be something to talk about in Philadelphia this week.

Here are the Week 5 NFL picks, with odds from BetMGM:

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49ers (+8.5) over Rams

The line started at Rams -3.5 and has continued to grow due to all those 49ers injuries. Brock Purdy will not play. Neither will Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall, who are also ruled out. Still, the 49ers are a well-coached team that still has talent, even with key players out. The Rams are very good but it’s a short week for them too, and the 49ers can find a way to keep it relatively close.

Vikings (-3.5) over Browns

When Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes did a survey of oddsmakers, to find out what the point-spread value was between the starting QB and his backup for all 32 teams, the dropoff from Joe Flacco to Kenny Pickett was about 1.5 points. Pickett isn’t around, of course. It’s rookie Dillon Gabriel who takes the job from Flacco this week. A third-round rookie probably has less value to the spread than Pickett, who is flawed but has at least played. And yet, there has been practically no line movement. In fact, the lookahead line last week was Vikings -4.5 at some books. Yes, Carson Wentz wasn’t great last week and the Browns defense is fierce. But there should have been a line move to account for Gabriel making his first start against a very good Vikings defense, and there wasn’t.

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Colts (-7) over Raiders

It’s a lot of points, but the Colts have proven they’re a good team. Some terrible mental mistakes cost them a win at the Rams last week, but they played well enough to win. Meanwhile, the Raiders are sliding fast and have offensive line issues on on top of it.

Giants (+2) over Saints

The Saints have been competitive in three of their four games. They have to see this as a good shot to get a win after an 0-4 start. It’s still a bit surprising to see them favored. The Giants will be a different team with Jaxson Dart, though also a different team without Malik Nabers. I can’t back the Saints as a favorite.

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Jets (+2.5) over Cowboys

The Cowboys came close to beating the Packers, but let’s not forget that the defense is one of the NFL’s worst and the offense still doesn’t have CeeDee Lamb. They overcame that for a big game last week but it’s tough to keep asking Dak Prescott to perform magic. The Jets have been wholly unimpressive, but this is a realistic chance to get a win.

Panthers (+1.5) over Dolphins

It’s not good news for the Panthers that they’re not favored at home against a Dolphins team that has only beaten the Jets and is without Tyreek Hill. But Carolina has done little to earn any respect. Maybe they can replicate whatever got into them for a random 30-0 win over the Falcons two weeks ago.

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Texans (-1.5) over Ravens

I don’t know how the Ravens can win with all their injuries, including one to Lamar Jackson. If the injury report doesn’t get better by Sunday, it’s going to look like a preseason lineup. The Titans aren’t great — they looked good last week, but that was against the Titans — but the injuries for the Ravens are too much to ignore.

Titans (+7.5) over Cardinals

Backing the Titans is exhausting. There’s no team in the NFL that is more poorly coached than Tennessee. But I’m not sure a Cardinals team without James Conner or Trey Benson is worth backing as a 7.5-point favorite. A pick of the Titans is not a confident pick though.

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Buccaneers (+3.5) over Seahawks

These two teams don’t get the same attention as other NFC contenders, but they’re both really good teams. What do you do when two teams you are high on face each other? Take the points.

Bengals (+10.5) over Lions

I am not a fan of double-digit NFL road favorites. This matchup tests that. The Bengals look like a team that knows without a doubt that it can’t compete this season. The Lions look great. But 10.5 points is a lot, especially for a home team, so this is the reluctant pick.

Chargers (-2.5) over Commanders

The Chargers have some serious offensive line issues. Maybe that’s a problem they can’t overcome. And the Commanders should have Jayden Daniels back this week. But I’m not willing to give up on the Chargers being one of the best teams in the NFL. If they’re at home giving less than a field goal, they’re the pick.

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Patriots (+8) over Bills

The Bills are 4-0, but just 2-2 against the spread. There’s no reason to worry about them, but they also aren’t blowing everyone away. The Patriots weren’t great for two weeks, they gave away a game in Week 3, and then looked much better in Week 4. This is a much bigger challenge. But they can compete.

Chiefs (-3.5) over Jaguars

The Chiefs looked like a different team on Sunday. Was that due to the Ravens’ struggles? Somewhat, but it seemed like more than that. If you give Patrick Mahomes just one viable weapon, like he had with Xavier Worthy last week, things look better. The Jaguars have been winning games but are very sloppy with a lot of penalties, bad mental mistakes and quarterback play that hasn’t been great yet.

Last week: 7-9

Season to date: 30-32-2

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